Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

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[Hindsight was 2020]

The war turns in Russia's favor, more so than ever!

?

Sarcasm. See the post above about the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Okay just making sure

[Hindsight was 2020]

Any new updates on the Ukraine counter offensive?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Irpin is fully liberated by Ukraine forces its mayor confirmed on Facebook

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kadyrov seems to be becoming more important to the war.

https://www.twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1508426419273142278

Ukrainian snipers: 👀

[Hindsight was 2020]

When Mariupol falls it definitely could be a major turning point. Russians have taken the majority of the city, although fighting likely is still ongoing.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/europe/mariupol-mayor-ukraine-occupiers-intl/index.html

With all do respect forumlurker you have been predicting the war turning in Russia’s favor for weeks now and it never comes to pass. While you never count your chickens before they hatch it becomes harder and harder with all the stuff we have seen and read about the ground to actually see how Russia can change momentum in their favor

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1509247054043881485

You know there is something to be said about how this conflict discredits autocracy over democracy as Putin blundered into this military catastrophe as there were no dissenting voices in the room

[Hindsight was 2020]

The siege of Chernihiv has been broken and the Ukrainians have made major advances near Kyiv:



Yellow: Settlements recaptured yesterday
Blue: Settlements recaptured today

Source: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1509862876433235972

Wow I couldn’t open the link at first and thought it was an April Fools joke but it’s true multiple sources on Twitter are confirming the lifting of the siege 😱
https://mobile.twitter.com/Independent/status/1509815942515245097

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1509879636989251584

[Hindsight was 2020]

Donbas may be lost if Izium has fallen.

Nothing is lost. Ukraine will drive the invaders out out Donbas 🇺🇦 😎

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kazakhstan has broken with Russia and won’t recognize Crimea or Donbas as Russian
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1509916004645748739

[Hindsight was 2020]

Heavy raining right now in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine today. So Russia’s retreat and reorganize an attack into Donbas idea is gonna have to happen right in the middle of Ukraine mud season

[Hindsight was 2020]

Once their country was occupied and a puppet regime established, the Ukrainians were then supposed to turn to partisan warfare that would transform the war into a long and bitter quagmire for Russia. Yet again, the Ukrainians didn’t listen. Instead of waiting for their defeat, they say they’re planning to launch a coordinated guerrilla campaign within the next few weeks—parallel to the regular war and just as spring turns forests green to provide cover. “The season of a total Ukrainian guerrilla safari will soon begin,” the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, announced in late March. “Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians: how to survive.”

Ukraine is going on the counter attack with the help of a coordinated insurgency to support behind enemy lines 🤩
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/ukraine-russia-war-guerrilla-partisans-civilian-militia/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some extremely upsetting imagery is coming out of the recently liberated suburbs of Kyiv. A lot of civilians - mostly men but some women and children as well - killed in apparent executions. Some of the dead are just scattered across roadways and sidewalks while others appear to have been partially buried in mass graves. Given the scale, it's difficult to imagine that this is just random wanton violence. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian troops were under order to kill all 'fighting age' men regardless of whether they took up arms or not. Whatever the reason, I think this makes any sort of negotiated settlement less likely in the short-term as Ukrainians will (understandably) harden their resolve.

Putin can’t stay in power after this is over

[Hindsight was 2020]

The images from Bucha turn my stomach ☹️

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don’t see how Zelensky can agree to any peace treaty with Russia that results in giving up land or not having Putin and his commanders being placed on trial for crimes against humanity

[Hindsight was 2020]

As much as the images sicken me and a part of me wants us to just go in and bomb the Kremlin the fact on the ground is Ukraine is winning so direct military involvement is not really required but we should do even more to get military hardware into Ukraine while further isolating Russia economically

[Hindsight was 2020]

Good to see you’re alright andjey 🙂

[Hindsight was 2020]

Based Biden.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1510996562394103808

I'm all for. once Bush faces them over Iraq.

I hate Bush as much as anyone but piss off with the false equivalence 🤬

[Hindsight was 2020]

Big if true notice:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1511403733279719431?s=20&t=7g_XkrbvM...

According to rumblings on social media Ukrainian troops have engaged Russians troops in the suburbs of Kherson

[Hindsight was 2020]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

Ukraine does not need tanks. They are just big metal targets for drones.

Defensively, fast moving light soldiers with AT weapons are much more useful & effective.

Well, the Ukrainian military has requested the Marder and you can't tell Ukraine how to fight their war. Evidence of the past one-and-a-half months points to them making more accurate strategic assessments than Western European governments anyway.

Plus they will need tanks for their counter offensive

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sunday afternoon PST and 3 hours later on EST.

Currently after Midnight in Europe...

NYT citing "military experts" is the next key battleground in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine War 2.0

Worth a read since this is a limited excerpt.

Having withdrawn from much of northern Ukraine, Russia appears to be pivoting to try to seize the eastern city of Sloviansk in the coming days, an effort that would connect its soldiers with Russia-backed forces in the region of Donbas, military experts say.

Russian success in capturing the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — two areas where there has been intense fighting between Ukrainian and pro-Russian separatists since 2014 — may hinge on its ability to capture Sloviansk, a city of 111,000 about 400 miles east of the capital, Kyiv.

Sloviansk lies in a strategic location near the eastern Donbas region, and its seizure could allow Russia to link its forces in northeast and southeast Ukraine. The city was an early flash point when war broke out between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels.

Failure to seize the city now could mean that Russia’s “campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail,” the ISW report said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/05/world/ukraine-russia-war/the-next-pivotal-battle-in-ukraine-sloviansk-military-analysts-say

They are asking a very difficult task of there troops in doing that. They’d have to make up huge amounts of ground to get to Sloviansk at a faster pace then they have been able muster at this point, through heavily defended ground, with the mud and rain seasons starting, and by doing so will force there troops to literally turn their backs to the Ukraine divisions that just won the battle of Kyiv

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511108357712719872
This guy thread does a great job laying out that thanks to Russia pissing away valuable men and resources in the battle of Kyiv that the Russian troops in Melitopol are set up for a devastating defeat meaning between Kherson and this a Southern collapse for RAF could be coming soon 🤩

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1511518549055094784