Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also American mercenaries/foreign legion volunteers aren’t denied the same rights as other soldiers don’t know why Hollywood thinks these guys being Americans means Russians can do a mock execution on them

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/artilleriemunition-fuer-die-ukraine-europas-verzweifelte-jagd-nach-munition-a-e80d84c5-b95a-49ca-b100-9c4c8e147b2d

"Europe's desperate hunt for ammunition"

Spiegel: The AFU will exhaust their reserves of shells before June, and possibly earlier, citing German intelligence services

Shells has to be among the worst supply bottlenecks afflicting Ukraine at the moment, right?

I would think so.   The largest cause of death on the battlefield is being killed by artillery so if Ukraine is running short on shells that takes away their ability to inflict losses on the Russians  

And the military tactics for both Ukraine and Russia are reliant on artillery to become dominant on the battlefield. This means they are particularly hungry for shells.

That was always Soviet defense structure to worship the god of artillery (they're both post-Soviet states). Some Western military comments after the start of the conflict was one reason the Russians performed poorly at the outset was they were trying to win without artillery in a U.S. in Iraq-style delusion of "they will welcome us as liberators" when heavy artillery use was how their army was setup strategically and was how they always trained.

The misuse of their airforce in the beginning was probably the bigger one with airport battle being the prime example

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s weird that the EU sending troops is coming up before sending Ukraine missiles and saying they can hit Russia in Russia

[Hindsight was 2020]

lmao @ Europe sending troops into Ukraine. America has absolutely no interest in deploying there (considering their focus is the Pacific), and there is no small contribution for Europe if they got involved. It would require a large mobilization of people, resources and manufacturing capabilities, considering many of their militaries are not particularly well-stocked, even before all the aid to Ukraine. Germany arguably has enough armor for one offensive in Ukraine, and not much ammunition for it. The UK is even worse off. Would Poland want to shoulder the brunt of that?

Laughable coming from France, who wouldn't even let the EU seek shells outside the bloc months ago, helping to lead to this desperation now. They aren't prepared to make sacrifices that come with joining the war. They wouldn't even sacrifice some domestic contracts so Ukraine could get more artillery shells faster.

The only way I see this idea remotely work is them sending EU troops into western and northern Ukraine as “peacekeepers” to free up all those troops to go to into the eastern front and even then it’s risky

[Hindsight was 2020]

Surely he'd mean that if Ukraine became a NATO member at some point in the distant future, Western troops would then be stationed there? Not that they'd fight in the current war.

The discussion was allegedly about doing it now at least the Polish reports on it make it sound like that

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine proved this morning why drones and artillery are the biggest things they need as they inflicted a heavy repulse on Russia near Novomykhailivka

[Hindsight was 2020]

There has not been a more clear cut good vs. evil conflict since WWII:

"The head of the Russian occupation administration of Zaporizhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, admitted that Russia is massively deporting Ukrainians who do not support Russia.

The official admitted that the Kremlin is carrying out ethnic cleansing in the occupied territories of Ukraine"

https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1762398536874741872?s=20

Absolutely disgusting, could you imagine knowing this was going on if a poster here would with trollish glee promote the idea Russia treats the occupied regions good in any way? Like posting about how many duel citizen passports they issued or posted vids of cities Russia bombed out being cleaned up? Man anyone who did that would just be a massive piece of crap

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1762848086152421393?s=20
This is embarrassing on our part

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia is still far away from taking the whole of Donbas let alone in just a year, Ukraine still hold fortifications like Toretsk, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Chasiv Yar, Karlivka, Kostiantinivka, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is so unbelievably idiotic. The US military has tons of spare, and besides they have no plausible reason to be fighting a war in the next decade. The Pentagon should be scraping the bottom of its reserves to send to Ukraine right now and it's shameful that they keep dithering over bullsh*t reasons like this.

Yeah, the gist of their excuse is that this is only spending authority, but they don't actually have money to replace what they send, like they've been doing.

I honestly don't get it for a lot of things Ukraine needs. They were not going to replace the cluster artillery shells with newer versions, and they were already going to decommission them, so why couldn't they send more of those? They didn't already have money to replace them anyway, so what difference does it make?

The US and other countries have done a lot for Ukraine, but you can tell through actions like this that there is limit to how "uncomfortable" they will make their own military in service of their allies. Sometimes that limit is laughable.

I don’t get why congress didn’t just renew lend lease last year

[Hindsight was 2020]

Macron runs his mouth off, but his government is still blocking the purchase of ammunition from outside the EU despite his claim that this would no longer happen. Don’t put much stock in his word.

Just watch, the Franco-Spanish-Swedish expeditionary force is going to go into Ukraine any day now. Who ever said that the Europeans don't have independent foreign policies?

The French have a real military. Swedes have a decent military up to a point due to being Swiss-style neutral forever although I think theirs is more naval in character which is of very limited use for Ukraine. Spain is WTF, maybe it's influenced by anti-Catalan independence/borders are sacrosanct and should not be changed vibes.

It's just their militaries can't compare to the juggernaut of NATO, the U.S.

I disagree if anything the Swedish military strength is in the sky. Gripens are absolute beasts of fighter jets

[Hindsight was 2020]

At this point the spamming is less awful than the fact that said spam is the same stuff over and over with nothing new to contribute

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1764275494701125835?s=12
I’m curious if Ukraine is better utilizing AD or if Russia has their planes fly dangerous missions as there was noticeable uptick on TG of Russian jets being destroyed

[Hindsight was 2020]

EU aims to shift european arms industry to "war economy mode”
And now we’re going to see the trickle down of the House causing US to abandon Ukraine as these proposals are going to see Europe gradually cut down its purchase of U.S. weapons exports in favor of domestic development. So good going blue avatars you guys hurt both our economy and geopolitical standing. On the flip side this is great news for Ukraine as they are going to be apart of this program
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-aims-shift-european-arms-industry-war-economy-mode-2024-03-04/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Notable thing about Ukraine/artillery shells: Ukraine's best bet long-term is to manufacture their own. If you go by some estimates of 155mm shells from European manufacturers, they can cost as high as $4k/shell, or even higher, since demand has skyrocketed into the stratosphere the past 2 years.

350,000 at that rate would be 1.4 billion dollars. For a country like Ukraine, that is just...not economically sustainable without outside support. So we're talking about a minimum of 12 billion dollars a year just for artillery shells. Not even counting propellant charges and spare parts for the guns themselves (like new barrels).

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1765062605109108833

The rate of uptick EU and Ukraine mass production of artillery shells says that by 25/onward they’ll be able to cut Russia’s artillery ratios from 10k to 2k in their favor to 10k-7 or 8k in their favor to possibly even rations depending on certain conditions. Which would be massive but the problem is this year and it makes Johnson and the House GOP actions unforgivable

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Putin simps here on this thread and in the Republican Party must be cheering:

Pro-Russia conspiracy theorists everywhere will be crying into their vodka.

I swear if I hear one more idiot cite that phone call of hers as “proof” Maiden was a CIA coup

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1766006226024886741
Sweet and much needed

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1766832681118003218
Something went boom in St Petersburg 👀

[Hindsight was 2020]

I see a certain Putin simp yellow avatar jumped all over the CNN article this morning about how Russia is heavily out producing the collective west on artillery production but people reading through picked up issues on it
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1767142548873650391?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like the Free Russia guys are at it again
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767515065815634316?s=12
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1767442625856983153?t=jAnAGcX2dMewXxCk...

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1767883770709876792?s=20

I think Russia's negotiation position today is similar to the USA's position toward the end of 1863 vis-a-vis CSA with the adjustment that CSA is still able to get a lot of external military and economic aid.  Namely a CSA offensive to regain round is very likely and in a long attritional war the USA will win but with significant cost.  So can there be a compromise deal where the USA limits its gains to remove the need for attritional losses it will have to incur in a long bloody victory?  Likewise, can CSA give up some of its maximalist positions at the beginning of the conflict to avoid an increasingly likely attritional defeat?

     It's ultimately the same challenge that has existed from the start; Russia and Ukraine have very different ideas of what an acceptable outcome for the war looks like. Negotiations are possible in principle, but fruitless in practice unless someone walks their stance back (or is otherwise willing to give considerable concessions). I suspect that making noise about pushing far beyond the territory they have already staked a claim to as a means of intimidating Ukraine into making concessions, because it's obvious that Ukraine won't walk back unless they are faced with a catastrophic alternative. Putin's remarks are a dominance play, because being seen as wanting negotiations smacks of weakness.

Or maybe the guy who time and time again has said/demonstrated his motivation is to effectively wipe Ukraine off the map because he views their sovereignty and ethnicity as a historical mistake might be aiming for wiping Ukraine off the map because he views their sovereignty and ethnicity as a historical mistake.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1767883770709876792?s=20

I think Russia's negotiation position today is similar to the USA's position toward the end of 1863 vis-a-vis CSA with the adjustment that CSA is still able to get a lot of external military and economic aid.  Namely a CSA offensive to regain round is very likely and in a long attritional war the USA will win but with significant cost.  So can there be a compromise deal where the USA limits its gains to remove the need for attritional losses it will have to incur in a long bloody victory?  Likewise, can CSA give up some of its maximalist positions at the beginning of the conflict to avoid an increasingly likely attritional defeat?

     It's ultimately the same challenge that has existed from the start; Russia and Ukraine have very different ideas of what an acceptable outcome for the war looks like. Negotiations are possible in principle, but fruitless in practice unless someone walks their stance back (or is otherwise willing to give considerable concessions). I suspect that making noise about pushing far beyond the territory they have already staked a claim to as a means of intimidating Ukraine into making concessions, because it's obvious that Ukraine won't walk back unless they are faced with a catastrophic alternative. Putin's remarks are a dominance play, because being seen as wanting negotiations smacks of weakness.

Or maybe the guy who time and time again has said/demonstrated his motivation is to effectively wipe Ukraine off the map because he views their sovereignty and ethnicity as a historical mistake might be aiming for wiping Ukraine off the map because he views their sovereignty and ethnicity as a historical mistake.

Certainly it's possible for both of these to be true in some way, simultaneously?

No because PIT presenting Putin as thing from a rational realpolitik position while I’m arguing he’s completely irrational at this point

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1767883770709876792?s=20

I think Russia's negotiation position today is similar to the USA's position toward the end of 1863 vis-a-vis CSA with the adjustment that CSA is still able to get a lot of external military and economic aid.  Namely a CSA offensive to regain round is very likely and in a long attritional war the USA will win but with significant cost.  So can there be a compromise deal where the USA limits its gains to remove the need for attritional losses it will have to incur in a long bloody victory?  Likewise, can CSA give up some of its maximalist positions at the beginning of the conflict to avoid an increasingly likely attritional defeat?

     It's ultimately the same challenge that has existed from the start; Russia and Ukraine have very different ideas of what an acceptable outcome for the war looks like. Negotiations are possible in principle, but fruitless in practice unless someone walks their stance back (or is otherwise willing to give considerable concessions). I suspect that making noise about pushing far beyond the territory they have already staked a claim to as a means of intimidating Ukraine into making concessions, because it's obvious that Ukraine won't walk back unless they are faced with a catastrophic alternative. Putin's remarks are a dominance play, because being seen as wanting negotiations smacks of weakness.

Or maybe the guy who time and time again has said/demonstrated his motivation is to effectively wipe Ukraine off the map because he views their sovereignty and ethnicity as a historical mistake might be aiming for wiping Ukraine off the map because he views their sovereignty and ethnicity as a historical mistake.

Certainly it's possible for both of these to be true in some way, simultaneously?

No because PIT presenting Putin as thing from a rational realpolitik position while I’m arguing he’s completely irrational at this point

Putin wanting Ukraine and thinking it would make Russia more important is arguably the most rational impulse he has in regards to his thought process regarding the war.
Why is it automatically "irrational" for a Russian leader to want a vassalized Ukraine? Apparently?

Because his motivation is blood and soil ahistorical revisionism

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dear people that claim to be pro-peace (like Orban), does this sound like someone ready to negotiate?

"Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”"

Well, whether you like it or not, it's a valid argument, and not much different from why Israel or the people backing them internationally are not automatically pro-ceasefire.

There's no reason for Putin to unilaterally surrender territory back to Ukraine. They've taken the land. This is war, it's the Ukrainians' job to come take it back if they want to control it.  It's been almost 10 years now and they still haven't taken back Crimea or the eastern regions of the Donbass. If the Russians give any land back, it'll be a bargaining chip for the Russians to get something else they more want because the Ukrainians have demonstrated so far they have not been able to take it back based on the evidence of the years preceding this conflict in Crimea and the eastern regions of the Donbass, and during the life of this conflict that the lines of control have hardly moved for 21 months now.

That's called right of conquest.

Human history has existed for a very long time. It's foolish and arrogant of people to think we're so enlightened that the last 80 years have changed how the last few thousand years operated. And right of conquest still exists in the modern world, it's just not done with bullets typically, it's done via economics and demographics and politics. The U.S. has quite the number of vassal states across the whole globe.

If you want Ukraine to get its land back, its military needs to start winning. That's an incredibly simple point to understand. I made this point many pages ago, blowing up a boat in the Black Sea is good for creating images on Twitter that people share but does not do anything to help Ukraine win unless you can demonstrate how blowing up that boat feeds into the weakening of Russian front line forces, allowing the Ukrainian forces to then break through them and take back their territory that Russia has taken since the invasion started 2 years ago. Blowing up boats in the Black Sea in the context of the overall conflict is an al-Qaeda-esque strategy of blowing up a Humvee with 3 soldiers in it via roadside bomb of it's a shiny video you can create but it does not change facts on the ground of who is in control. What are the Ukrainians doing to change facts on the ground? Where's the draft if they actually want to win this war? I just think Zelenskyy has privately conceded all the territory to Russia they've already lost and we'll all find out that's the truth in a New York Times op-ed written 9 years from now probably. I'm just trying to figure out Zelenskyy's end game - the real end game, not what he says publicly.

The focus on F-16s is this giant glaring example to me. That you can't flip a switch and instantly have trained Ukrainians that are all-stars flying F-16s as some idiots on this thread said early on is the mother of all eyerolls, no sh*t you weren't. F-16s is a post-war air defense mechanism vs. Russia, it's not an in-war use due to the long lead time of getting F-16s and training Ukrainian pilots and getting parts and training Ukrainian maintenance crews how to properly upkeep them unless you want to pay out the nose for private defense contractor workers to live in Ukraine on an airbase for a long period of time that's probably under fire semi-regularly. People that are not military have no f#ck*ng clue how logistically complicated military personnel and equipment are. It's why everything in Europe regarding their military the past few decades slowly rotting away has had smart NATO military watchers pulling their hair out.

Talk about “mother of all eyerolls” if Zelensky “privately conceded all the territory to Russia” he wouldn’t have had the fallout he did with Zaluzhnyi over mobilizations and counter attack ideas. There is literally nothing that could point to such a conclusion and most evidence both here in the west that we can easily access and more on the ground stuff in Ukraine point to the exact opposite.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another case in point about Putin being insane does this sound like demands of someone remotely rational