Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1517402211407568897
So Russia grand strategy (and other sources and Russia movements points to this being the idea) is to pull off a pincer movement via north and south. However, this is a flawed idea on Russia’s part as 1) a pincer movement relies on speed and Russia forces are not moving quickly and between the mud and urban fight that will take place there is no reason for the pace to pick up and 2) they don’t have the numerical advantages to pull such a move off

Still, steady Russian gains on the front lines are a worrying trend. I don’t know enough to say whether Ukrainians are just falling back to a more defensible position while bleeding the attackers dry, but I’d feel more optimistic about the future of the war if the Ukrainians were holding the line or making gains in some places.

I wouldn’t worry too much about the gains as they seem to be marginal gains at the edges

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah the Russians are doing better now. At this rate, they probably will capture the rest of Donbas by July, but that’s if they continue this momentum.

Now we know the Russians really are screwed 😉

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1517547263916412928

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517787243984924673
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517788123010420736
This is another big problem for the Russians in the battle of Donbas. Not only have they only seen marginal gains around the edges but they are seeing these gains while suffering a causality rate that is not sustainable. They won’t be able to pull off any successfully encirclement of Ukraine while losing 400-500 men per day not to mention all the equipment lost as well

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
👀

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1518261789108097024

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/DominMa/status/1518264618472382466

Lyman is the priority right now for both sides.

🇺🇦: The Russians have surrounded us? The poor bastards

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/DominMa/status/1518264618472382466

Lyman is the priority right now for both sides.

🇺🇦: The Russians have surrounded us? The poor bastards

To expand on this joke there is nothing on the ground to indicate that Russia could successfully pull that move off. They are moving slow, suffering causalities at unsustainable rates, and not to mention Sloviansk itself is going to be long drawn out Stalingrad style urban fight that will take forever for Russia to take. All the while they stretch out their supply lines and open their rear flanks to counter attacks from a Ukrainian army that is obtaining arms from the West everyday and is about to have fresh troops off of their mass mobilization coming in

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia launched a war of aggression on her neighbor and during the course of the war has deliberately shelled civilians targets and committed active genocide on the population and despite such blast horror there has been this group of self proclaimed leftist who have downplayed or even defended Russia’s actions as above any true ideology consistency they are first and foremost anti-West

[Hindsight was 2020]

Russia launched a war of aggression on her neighbor and during the course of the war has deliberately shelled civilians targets and committed active genocide on the population and despite such blast horror there has been this group of self proclaimed leftist who have downplayed or even defended Russia’s actions as above any true ideology consistency they are first and foremost anti-West

Problem with this mentality is that if you go by it, Eastern Europe is more western than Western Europe because of the differentiated reaction.

OR even that pro-globalization / anti-protectionist neoliberals are more leftist than the economic nationalist types. The logic doesn’t click.

Maybe, just maybe, economic interests is what drives these country reactions from Germany to India instead of these artificial ideological abstractions about left/right or pro-west/anti-west.

Why are you acting like the mentality I’m describing is anywhere near the majority of these nations population thinking on the conflict? Red you and the rest of the Russia apology crowd are not even the majority of leftist thinking in the West

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1516454620335415300
This might of been a false flag. Look at the time stamps

An oil depot and an ammunition storage site was hit. These are critical infrastructure for the Russian AF and legitimate military targets. A false flag attack would target apartment blocks, schools or hospitals for propaganda value.

Those are good points but the possibility can’t be diminished after everything we have seen that the Kremlin would be legitimately be stupid enough to false flag actual military targets over something more practical

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Now_in_Ukraine/status/1518455997420945410
https://mobile.twitter.com/Now_in_Ukraine/status/1518456161325961219

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1518625162362507264
Grain of salt but big if true as this means the Izium offensive is now exposed on its side

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1518719066910838784

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1518918949446033409

[Hindsight was 2020]

Is the Kremlin so stupid they are going to open a 2nd front on Moldova?

[Hindsight was 2020]

If Russia moves against Moldova now, it will be more of a change in strategy for the Ukraine war than greed for Moldova itself. It will mean that Putin will focus more on holding eastern and coastal Ukraine, choking it off. And that means Russia will focus more on just holding those areas and then just do sporadic bombing and incursions into Kyiv and the rest of Ukraine for years to maybe over a decade… until western arms shipments to Ukraine finally dry up, western sanctions against Russia finally end, and then a decade-battered Ukraine with no access to the sea is finally completely annexed by a more war-hardened Russian military. This could very well go until 2035. Moldova probably means a more dangerous and competent long-term strategy. It’s a relatively poor, small, landlocked country by itself.

Again, how are they getting to Moldova? It really doesn’t look like they are making any progress West/north of Kherson and they simply don’t have the resources to take Odessa.
Transnistria has a token Russian force and a couple thousand local fighters. And it’s land locked and I hardly think either Moldova or Ukraine is just going to let the Russian move supplies there.

Also I know that Moldova is a small nation and military but it still is a mountains area with 60k in reserves so if Russia goes to war with them too that it will be some quick cakewalk. And that’s not mentioning the elephant in the room that Romania might directly intervene militarily as well

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sorry mixed up Moldova terrain with Romania terrain. Still point stands that Russia will still can’t just take it over in the blink of an eye

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Russian army is not presently making significant advances on any front. Doing better than during the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is really not a major accomplishment.

Not only is Russia not making any significant advances but they doing so while sustaining a causality rate they can’t afford for example
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519353710190682114
At this point the best outcome for Russia for the battle of Donbas is a moral victory we’re they might gain enough of the East to satisfy Putin ego at the expense of leaving the army completely drained and sitting ducks for when Ukraine with superior western weapons and a wave fresh conscripts coming in is able to launch a massive counter attack. And that’s just best case scenario the most likely is either a stalemate or an outright Ukraine win here

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1519405553390342146
 NATO is going to start arming Ukraine with superior Western made weaponry 👀

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1519721358120431616
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1519722167126171656
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1519722792513638404

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519742892138508294

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519742892138508294

I do have to point out that this guy is about as reliable as the claims on Russian TV.

I get that he supports Ukraine, most of us do, but I really don't want to gobble up his ridiculous claims of "Russia captured 4 villages, but had 300 KIA". Apparently, he is spying on their built-in heartrate monitors.

We already had this BS with "analysts" saying Russia expended all of their modern, long-range missiles 4 weeks ago. Well, apparently, no one notified Putin of that, since at least several were fired just today.

For fairly reliable & neutral info on the war, follow OSINT channels.

He’s quoting the Ukraine staff reporting here
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1519734232716922882

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519828953770377218