2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1042875516976476160

A tie in a R internal isn’t great for Rosendale

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MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

Woof

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Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Literally you, Limo, and Bagel have all said whenever Trump gets a bump or Dems go down that it was going to permanently continue in that direction and each and every time it wasn’t proven true.

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Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

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https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

What a trolling cherry pick of the poll. Is Hofoid writing for NPR now?

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Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates

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https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

What a trolling cherry pick of the poll. Is Hofoid writing for NPR now?

So you deny that #MeToo overplaying its hand has led to increased GOP enthusiasm in the past month?

Sure it’s helped some GOP enthusiasm the problem is this poll was D+6 and +9 with a LV model. Those numbers are consistent with the 7-9 point lead D’s have had. So what this says is that whatever help this hearing has had for enthusiasm it hasn’t demoralized dems nor shifted indies in the GOP direction

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Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

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Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

I never look at one poll in a vacuum. I do, however, look at this. Dem lead at its lowest level in more than a month.

(Again, those are minor swings compared to what we saw in 2016, but it still means fewer seats for Democrats.)

Lowest lead and it’s still 8% which is consistent with where it’s been throughout the past 2 years

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Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

The Bottom Line is this:

The Kavernaugh Confirmation (should he be confirmed) has the Potential to change/swing the narrative of this Election similar to when Comey made the Announcement about re-opening Hillarys eMails in 2016...at least that's what Republicans think it would do otherwise they wouldn't be pushing so hard to get him confirmed.

No it doesn’t. Hillary was in a tight race before the Comey letter came out. The midterms haven’t been close polling wise since May

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Funny thing is this poll is also pushed the “enthusiasm gap” as well but these polls are hardly different from the last batch minus ND. Heck Donnelly is up in this batch

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Wason Center (Va-10)
Wexton: 51
Comstock: 44
https://mobile.twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1047789787913093120

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https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1047794412577837056

Woof

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First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047956776644014080

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047963979920760832

Those polls are dated to last week though

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First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

The house is usually tougher to predict because the districts are so gerrymandered. With that being said there is definitely movement toward the GOP in the last week and movement away from the democrats. I do not think that Gillum can hold that lead he is too left wing for Florida and I think DeSantis will end up narrowily winning as well as Rick Scott. Florida is becoming fools gold for democrats just as PA used to be for the GOP. Things COULD CHANGE in the next month but it's not that long of a time and the enthusiasm of each side is now even according to the latest poll which is really bad news for democrats. The democrats got cocky again and overreached with Kavanaugh. They should have not pushed so hard and riled up the GOP base. Now you have an energized GOP base. I agree with the OP largely. The democrats are in trouble in 2020 and until 2026 probably. I think 2018 could end up being a surprising showing for the GOP and the democrats may not win the house back. Democrats are lost as a party right now. They have no coherent message other than they hate Trump. The economy is in a strong position and we are not at war. Trump is looking stronger and stronger to be reelected by the day.

Great parody post. 10/10

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Sooo, Congressional Leadership Fund comes out today with a poll that has Hurd up wait for it... 25 points. I mean even for them it's too much I think.

If big true

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There's been a blue wave for the past year, why do people keep ignoring the dozens of races in the past year where it's clearly evident Dem voters are fired up and massive swings in deep red territory. We were told the tax cuts would doom energize GOP voters and doom people like Conor Lamb and it didn't. Stop buying into the GOP narratives they are trying to push and look what has happened in the past year.

^This^.

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I don't think any President with Trump's approval ratings has gained seats in the senate.

The map is simply unfavorable to the Dems--aside from Nevada, the only Republicans up for reelection are in strong R states (and half the Dems up are as well). Any other Senate map would've led to losses for the GOP.

An as we enter the final street they have put only 3 into serious play (ND, MO, and FL) vs 3 the Dems have put into serious play (AZ, NV, and TN). The fact of the matter is if the dems are winning the house by 30+ seats the reps aren’t doing well in the senate. Environments matter

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I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

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I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

Multiple polls have shown Heitkamp and Bredesen collapsing. Kavanaugh is pretty clearly, at minimum, hurting the Dems in the crimson red states.

Heidi was viewed as in trouble since July and the polls in Bredesen case are the Fox poll which had him down 3 a week before the CNN poll had him up 5 and this Yougov poll which has Marsha up by more than any poll (including SurveyMonkey) has had her.

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If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

And the house is now closer to Tossup than Lean D

People said the exact same thing about this class in 2012. I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but saying there's zero chance is absurd.

Taking the Fundamentals of the States as well as the National Political Environment into Account the most likely Senate Scenario is that it stays the same: Democrats win AZ, NV and Republicans win ND, MO. Both Parties hold the rest of their own Seats.
In ND the State Fundamentals working against Heitkamp more so in a MidTerm compared to a Presidential Year. McCaskill in MO is very unpopular. Her JA is even worse compared to Heitkamp.

That’s actually a shockingly reasonable take from you and I kinda agree but I’m not ready to beat against McCaskill yet

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I'm not exactly sure how to interpret that wapo poll. It seems like a fairly good result for dems?

Also worth noting that this poll was done over a few weeks, but it also has a pretty large sample.

Yeah if Dems are polling 50/50 in those 48 seats Trump won then that’s in line with a 30-40 seat gain

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Apparently Gil Cisneros is up a point over Kim in a new poll. Seems to have rebounded

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Can Twenty42 get his own concern troll thread?

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RCP has House control a virtual toss up now. I blame thank DiFi for holding on to the Kav dirt this long.

FTFY

Virginia, I know you've never agreed on much with me, but you seriously think what DiFi did helped in the Midterms? I want to see the logic in that. The bump for the GOP lately is almost all concentrated in Kavanaugh related anger.

What bump? The only house poll out today is the WaPo one we’re dems are in a 35-45 seat pickup position

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Dems in disarray