Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Process Discussion (confirmed 54-45)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Im sorry but SC picks don't really influence midterm voters so any accusation Brown will now lose in 2018 over this vote is ridiculous

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looking at that list, it reads like 57-43 to me, with Manchin, Tester, King, Donnelly, and Heitkamp going for cloture. Followed five minutes later by the nuclear option.

add Warner, Bennett, and Coons, and that's 60.

A) I think its more 56-44 I don't see King going over heck I can see Tester as well also B) Warner, Bennett, and Coons are not likely yes

They may not vote for him, but they will support allowing a vote and save the filibuster for another day.

Except on Politico it says (well more than says, it has up a video of Coons actually saying it) that Coons thinks there is not 60 votes, and the "tragedy" of the nuke button being successfully pushed is "almost a certainty."  So Coons has trouble getting to the number 60.

Schmuckey better cut a deal with McConnell because the next guy isn't going to be anywhere near as milk-toast as Gorsuch, and if McConnell pushes the button then, the Dems are truly screwed.

There is no guarantee Trump gets a next guy an if he does it might be replacing a consertive justice so go for it

Agreed, no guarantee but at 84 for Ginsburg it's reasonable to suggest she may be next.  Kennedy is no spring chicken either.

That generation is still holding on so I wouldn't beat on it an Kennedy is replacing rw with rw

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/joshorton/status/846411681349713922

[Hindsight was 2020]

Schumer says he has enough Democrats to prevent 60 votes on Gorsuch (meaning fewer than 8 Democratic defections). However, Politico's count has 13 Democrats that are either undecided or have not announced their intentions:

Tim Kaine (Up for reelection in 2018)
Joe Manchin (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Jon Tester (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Michael Bennett
Amy Klobuchar (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Angus King (Up for reelection in 2018)
Claire McCaskill (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Mark Warner
Chris Coons
Maggie Hassan
Joe Donnelly (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Bill Nelson (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)
Heidi Heitkamp (Trump state, up for reelection in 2018)

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/gorsuch-democrats-supreme-court-236384

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/24/1647085/-Schumer-says-he-has-votes-to-filibuster-Gorsuch-but-at-least-13-Dem-senators-remain-on-the-fence

Quick correction: Trump lost Minnesota, but it was close, and I think will be more competitive in the future. (I don't really think Klobuchar is an any danger, as much as I think she's overrated.)

Does MN even have state wide Republicans?

Nelson & McCaskill are gone, so that is 11. Hassan is up in re-election in 2024 in NH, Coons is totally safe. Klobuchar will also come along so that makes it 8.

So Dems need 1 of Kaine, Warner (both in Likely D seats atleast w/o a major threat) or Bennet. Schumer is a tough cookie, he will surely let 2 or 3 of the votes & let Manchin, Donnely, Heitkamp etc vote the other way.

Does GOP have the required votes for a Nuclear?

Susan Collins could be  NO. Murkowski could be a NO. McCain could be a NO. Rand Paul could be a No. Flake/Portman/Toomey etc try & seem moderates but they are little boys who will bullied by Trump in 1 minute.

I find it very hard to see Susan Collins opting to go for Nuclear. Either way That turtle has to convince everyone, get the votes & then go for it which will drag it out more, hopefully through this term.

Win, Win for the Dems especially because No1 gives damn about the SC (Lowest priority among Trump voters even in the Fox Poll).

The delusion is scary.

The longer the Dems obstruct, the more the voters (these who decide elections, not the butthurt activists who riot on the streets or comment on social media) will be angry and will shake their heads about it. There will be a point coming that it is more popular to go nuclear than to keep the Filibuster in place. Collins, Mukowski, McCain, Graham etc. will not be the reason why the GOP can't get Gorsuch confirmed. Also, there's still very much Anger about Harry Reids move in 2013. And the GOP can't trust the Dems to stick to the Filibuster when the majorities have swung back. But they won't swing back before 2024 if the GOP can pick up 3 or more seats in 2018 thanks to the SCOTUS Topic which worked very well for the GOP in November. 

All in all, the Dems have to lose a hell lot, the GOP has enough time. They have 52 Seats now, they will almost certainly have more Seats in two years.

If that was the case, it would have costed many moderate Republicans their seats in swing states in 2016 when Republicans didn't allow Obama's nominee to even get a hearing. You are living in your own world if you believe that Swing voters in the rust belt have a Conservative Supreme Court as their top priority - Remember many of these voters are 2 time Obama voters. Citizens United for one is deeply unpopular among even Republican/Conservative voters. The people for whom the Supreme Court is absolutely key will 100% anyways vote Republican always & are not Swing voters.

Poll after Poll, including the Fox one, shows even among Trump voters, Supreme Court is a very VERY low priority

2018 will be fought on Trump's performance & the economy under a Republican Congress !

Will again be a hard awakening for you, Buddy!

2016 National Exit poll:

"In your vote, were Supreme Court appointments:"
The most important factor (21%) - Trump 56%, Clinton 41%.

But keep on dreaming.

Yeah a big % are republicans who hated Trump but stayed with him for that reason

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm skeptical of the strategy to filibuster Gorsuch since I think Dems need to keep the powder dry for Kennedy or RBG, but after Garland there's no way the base wouldn't demand it.

I honestly think Gorsuch is the least bad out of him, Pryor and Hardiman, but that's just me. Pryor is a partisan hack  in a robe
[/quotes] I call bs on that cause when Kennedy or RBG has to be replaced Mitch would just kill the FB then so might as well fight the battle now an keep the base happy

[Hindsight was 2020]

as if clare's decision on this matter would change even 1 vote.

if she is gone in 2018 then she would have been gone anyway.

and after 8 years of obama, nuking the filibuster isn't at all scary for me...on the contrary. republicans should be much more afraid of it, since democrats always have been the nice party and too timid.

Given the fact that the Dems once obstructed and voted down a SCOTUS nominee and the GOP always accepted liberal choices, I highly doubt that ;-)

What delusional world do you rwers live in that you are under the impression you guys always cave to dems? Seriously Obama was historically obstructed since 2010 to the point where Trump has hundreds of federal court seats to fill along with a SC seat that has been vacant for a year but you guys think we always get our way?

[Hindsight was 2020]

as if clare's decision on this matter would change even 1 vote.

if she is gone in 2018 then she would have been gone anyway.

and after 8 years of obama, nuking the filibuster isn't at all scary for me...on the contrary. republicans should be much more afraid of it, since democrats always have been the nice party and too timid.

Given the fact that the Dems once obstructed and voted down a SCOTUS nominee and the GOP always accepted liberal choices, I highly doubt that ;-)

What delusional world do you rwers live in that you are under the impression you guys always cave to dems? Seriously Obama was historically obstructed since 2010 to the point where Trump has hundreds of federal court seats to fill along with a SC seat that has been vacant for a year but you guys think we always get our way?

He's saying that every Democratic appointee to SCOTUS winds up a reliable liberal, but we have been burned on Souter, Kennedy, O'Connor, etc.

Maybe because they don't judge as liberals but libertarians? Seriously most court case you guys loss is over some dumb culture war issue like gay marriage or abortion that con judges like Kennedy know conflict with existing laws

[Hindsight was 2020]

A sign of the direction of later Federal judicial appointments

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http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/white_house_tells_aba_it_wont_be_asked_to_review_lower_court_judicial_candi/

That's f**king horrifying

[Hindsight was 2020]

Using a nuclear option to push through a justice supported by 60% of Americans is not something that will backfire.

Why the hell are liberals afraid of someone like gorsuch? He's one of the most tame conservatives to ever be appointed.

It's not about him it's about giving Mitch an Trump the finger over Garland

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just in: Donnelly supporty Gorsuch.

Not surprising

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gorsuch passes committee 11-9 (party line vote)

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/848966828323897345

Not surprising