I agree with him on MT (though I'd say it's closer to Tilt than Leans D) and ND (even with Cramer, the race is a pure Tossup), but this idea that Evan Jenkins, Ann Wagner and Luke Messer will face an uphill battle just because a Republican is president is ridiculous, and Sabato knows this.
I don't know why you think the rules of midterms won't apply to possibly our least popular President ever. Yeah those are Trump states, but a deeply unpopular President (Not nominee, President) throws that out the window.
No one really knows what his approval numbers will be in Nov. 2018, but even if we're assuming they're terrible, most polls have shown Trump is at least quite popular among Republicans, which matters in states like WV and ND. I also doubt his approval will be in the low 30s, that seems highly unlikely. Even in 2014, Republicans weren't able to win in states like MI, MN, VA, etc. so I don't think the Ds will have an easy time in WV, IN and MO either. Donnelly is very anonymous and basically an accidental Senator anyway, and while Messer is overrated IMO, he should be favored in the end. McCaskill has been discussed at great length before, it should be obvious why she's in big trouble. And WV? Jenkins is a very strong recruit, and I highly doubt that Trump will be such a big drag on his chances. But yeah, if anyone can win there, it's Manchin (And I'm not denying it's a Tossup, but Lean D seems too generous to Dems).
Think of this way: If Ron Johnson was up for reelection in Washington in 2018 and Clinton had won last year, would anyone seriously rate Johnson's race a Tossup? I highly doubt it.
Manchin isn't an actual democrat.
Yeah, I'm sure that's why McConnell is pulling out all the stops to get Manchin's Senate seat.
But here is my problem with your constant argument about Manchin an others being trouble. There is a psychology to voting an when it comes to midterms an it's really hard to really rally a base to vote for the party in power/expand it. I have doubt out of ND, IN, MO, MT, WV that the reps can pick up 1 or two seats but thinking more then that while also not losing NV an AZ is silly, seeing as Heller and Flake have more problems for them back home in their states then Manchin in WV
