GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh no one polls has Ossoff down well that's it he's done

[Hindsight was 2020]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Why?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well it should be pointed out Landmark Communications polled Ossoff really under

[Hindsight was 2020]

It's been shown quite frequently that Ossoff only got to his near-majority through Republican support estimated at around 15%, so there is obviously a good deal of cross-over support. You simply cannot reach a figure like that in this district without some one other than the Democrats voting for you.

Far be it from me to play strategist, but is this kind of seat worth spending the kind of money that has been spent on it by the Dems?

Like, not to play into the rather poisonous dialogue comparing this seat to the MT-AL, but in Montana you've got a bunch of people who, while reliably GOP on a Presidential level, are more than willing to vote for the right Democrat. I would argue that that sort of seat might make a better investment than spending the truly ungodly amount of money that has been spent this cycle on a seat that, if Dems want to keep it, will require significant partisan crossover each every single cycle.

Because these 'Republicans'  could become reliable Democratic voters.  Pretty much every Ossof Republican voter voted Clinton in 2016.  This basically shows that these people have not come back into the fold, and are willing to vote for a Democrat even if their opponent isn't Trump, but rather a mainstream Republican.

Or that when Trump is on the ballot (or the race is completely nationalized and millions upon millions of dollars are spent establishing the Republican as a representative of Trump) people will vote against Trump. I'm not sure that's really a sustainable investment for the future of the party, or indeed a real way to "retake the house" in any meaningful sense.

The reason why Democrats are spending millions on this race are because Republicans are as well.  Democrats aren't going to need to spend this much money on every district they compete in in 2018, because Republicans won't be either.

Democrats cannot afford to forfeit districts because they look too hard to win.  There is no path to winning the House if Democrats don't take push the envelope and contest a broad range of seats.

I agree that we need to contest seats that currently lean R. But building the Democratic coalition of the future out of short term suburban outrage at Trump's conduct seems paradoxical to me.

As for the ungodly gobs of money, I get that we're going toe to toe with the GOP. My question is - is this the seat (or the kind of seat) to do it in?

It's not short term the GOP has fully embraced anti-intellectualism

[Hindsight was 2020]

"We should be investing everywhere! 50-state strategy! Why are we not funding winnable races?"

"But don't invest where I don't like the voters because they don't fit my preconceived notions of who should be voting for Democrats."

Sad but true

[Hindsight was 2020]

New Gravis poll:

Ossoff 47
Handel 45

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/14/new-poll-has-ossoff-handel-neck-and-neck-in-6th-district-runoff/

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/gravis-marketing-ga-6th-congressional-poll/?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Gravis%20Marketing&utm_content=Poll1


Of those who didn’t vote in the first round, 53% said they’ll vote for Ossoff in the runoff, 32% for Handel.

Go Ossoff go!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

So we have 3 runoff polls that are all within the MOE with 2 having Ossoff up and one with Handel up

[Hindsight was 2020]

Updating my prediction to 54-46 for Handel.

Why may I ask?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The district has registered over 5500 new voters since registration was reopened following a lawsuit, with a backlog of thousands still pending:

http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-6th-district-has-added-500-voters-with-more-coming/JngfyKxyryRWupkDcnTVsN

("500" in the URL is the AJC's typo, not mine.)

Breakdown:

Cobb 1082
DeKalb 1989
Fulton 2461

I'd imagine this is good for Ossoff

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm going to take this with caution, but I do believe Ossoff would win 51-49 if the election were held today, by June 20th however, Handel should win 52-48.

This is certainly possible, but what do you expect to happen that would cause it to flip like that?

The latest Russia Scandal to blow over and the Senate to start giving the AHCA a heart, along with Pence coming to campaign and more time to attack Ossoff the district should move back to its norms.

First off dude you guys have been saying "Ruisia will blow over nothing to see here" an it doesn't in fact it keeps getting worse.  2nd the AHCA being anywhere near the publics mind will not be a positive. Am 3rd Ossoff has been endlessly a attacked since the primiaries started

[Hindsight was 2020]

I have to say if Ossoff does win it is in no small part that Handel is doing nothing but fundraising an like Hillary is taking votes for granted

[Hindsight was 2020]

I have to say if Ossoff does win it is in no small part that Handel is doing nothing but fundraising an like Hillary is taking votes for granted

There's really not too much more to be done, aside from the occasional rally and GOTV work in the week or two before the election. Essentially every voter in the district has been contacted by both campaigns, some have been contacted multiple times.

No that's what I mean Ossoff has been "touch me see me feel me" all over the place while Handel barley holds rallies

[Hindsight was 2020]

No that's what I mean Ossoff has been "touch me see me feel me" all over the place

As long as he doesn't take this literally....

Oh the jokes GG has given us

[Hindsight was 2020]

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That's actually good for Ossoff

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nate reporting EV is about 42D/42R which was about EV originally in the first round so good for Ossoff https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/869724339356172289

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sounds like it was false hope

[Hindsight was 2020]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

This'll probably work.

What do y'all make of this?

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It means Republicans weren't interested in the first round, but got spooked by how close it was and probably help Handel win by 7-8 points.

Well, before you start screaming Armageddon, we don't know how big that subsample even is

I've been saying from day one that Ossoff isn't going to win, or even receive more than he did in the first round. Georgia's runoff elections are fairly predictable.

It'll probably be close though.

Nonetheless, this money all could've gone to Kansas or Montana.

God what is with you guys were on hand it's all "50 state strategy" but then "eww suburbans no only support rural areas" it doesn't work like that areas like Georgia are going to play a bigger role in 2018 then Kansas or Montana

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is probably a stupid question, but why is the early vote in GA-06 generally Republican-leaning? Didn't Ossoff win it in a landslide in April?

Actually no it was tied he got out to really good start because of all the intention he got but the GOP caught up at the end.

[Hindsight was 2020]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

It reall should be a good sign for Ossoff that he has been up an close to if not breaking 50 in most recent polls

[Hindsight was 2020]

GOP Super PAC ad ties Ossoff to Kathy Griffin

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/06/01/gop-super-pac-tries-to-tie-georgia-democrat-to-kathy-griffin/?utm_term=.ac48f28197e5

I had a bit of a chuckle at the idea that Michael Moore is the face of "dividing America" in 2017. That's rich.

It's also ironic that the narrator calls liberals the divisive ones when in the next breath, he calls Ossoff "one of them."

They've been doing that forever " we are about uniting the country but f**k the East and West coasts"

[Hindsight was 2020]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

[Hindsight was 2020]

Based off of the FB feedback Ossoff is doing good according to Ossoff fans and Handel is doing well according to Handel fan

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think he did really well on Handel being a hypocrite on Syria strikes

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow Handel is actually standing by the ACHA act that might kill her

[Hindsight was 2020]

From what I've seen on twitter Ossoff got her good on healthcare you got like no feedback on twitter om this debate then it exploded after the AHCA with "Ossoff rektd her" responses