1964 and beyond...

[Michael Z]

Time for yet another "What if Kennedy hadn't been assassinated"-thread. I hope that this one will prove to be just as entertaining and interesting to read as the others. In any case, here goes...


On the 20st of November 1963 local police in Dallas, TX arrest Communist functionary Lee Harvey Oswald on suspicion of plotting to kill President John F. Kennedy just two days before his visit to the city. The plot makes newspaper headlines and overshadows the President's visit to Dallas, but the majority of coverage concentrates on the relief felt and the possible consequences had Oswald not been arrested.

Throughout 1964 President Kennedy pushes the Civil Rights bill, much to the chagrin of Southern Democrats like George Wallace, who threatens to challenge Kennedy’s candidacy during the primaries. Much concentration is also paid on a Republican senator from Arizona named Barry Goldwater, who hesitatingly decided to run for the Presidency in spite of his close friendship with the President. In a telephone conversation with Kennedy, Goldwater asserts that he hopes their frienship will survive a possible election campaign, to which Kennedy responds in kind.

With the Republican primary season underway, the race is on between established New York Govenor Nelson Rockefeller, William Scranton (the Govenor of Pennsylvania) and aforementioned Senator Goldwater.

The Democratic Campaign
While rumours persist that Kennedy would drop Johnson and pick either Senator Stuart Symington (his erstwhile rival for the 1960 nomination) or Govenor Terry Sanford as his running mate, President Kennedy has an urgent meeting with his brother and Attorney General Robert to discuss the matter. RFK and LBJ are widely known to be hostile to each other, yet Robert surprisingly asserts that his brother should stick with Johnson, simply because of the potential divisions that could be caused by ditching him.

“You know these Texans have a temper, John. LBJ would never forgive you. Heck, he’d probably even run as an independent. I wouldn’t put it past him.”

JFK takes his brother's advice on board. One day he summons Vice President Johnson into the oval office to discuss the 1964 election. Johnson is expecting the worst. His own PA had told him he’d have to clear his office for Sanford in November. What President Kennedy tells him, however, is music to his ears:

“Lyndon, we've had a lot of struggle over the civil rights bill. But you've done what a Vice President should do - you've stuck by me through thick and thin the last four years. In fact, I was heavily surprised by your loyalty throughout. I see no reason to let go of you and I want to reassure you that you will also be my choice for the Vice Presidency this year. ”

JFK confirms during a speech in New York that LBJ would be his Vice Presidential candidate for the second time running.

Also, to Kennedy's relief, George Wallace does not challenge the President. President Kennedy therefore goes unchallenged for the Democratic nomination in 1964.

The Republican Campaign
With conservative Republicans fuming over the possibility of a Civil Rights Act, Goldwater tries to play to the gallery in a speech where he makes his intentions very clear; no Civil Right Bill, a more confrontational policy towards Russia, and no concessions to the Rockefeller Republicans. Rockefeller's divorce also is an issue in this campaign, as it offended many on the conservative wing of the Party. The race seems on for a Goldwater v Rockefeller race.

Goldwater has the momentum early on. However, with President Kennedy enduring a relatively low popularity rating due to the controversy over the Civil Rights Bill, not to mention incessant rumours of his constant womanising and philandering and ill health, Republicans realise that they have a real chance to win the election. Ultimately, they don't see any reason to bring the proverbial lamb to the slaughter (Goldwater is still widely seen as unelectable), and pick Rockefeller, a move which does bring some controversy. Even an endorsement from Richard Nixon doesn't seem to help Goldwater's campaign. The final nail in the coffin for Goldwater occurs when William Scranton drops out of the race and publicly endorses Rockefeller, urging all his supports to do the same.

In a jubilant convention, Rockefeller accepts the nomination, picking Scranton as his running mate. Goldwater's supports talk of a backroom deal between Rockefeller and Scranton.

In the course of the campaign, Kennedy's supposed ill health and womanising become more and more of an issue. While Rockefeller refuses to make any public accusations of Presidential ill behaviour (mainly due to his own personal issues), his PR team do all the dirty work for him, leaking memos to the press by the by. Eventually, the Presidential race is no longer a question of issues but of personalities. This runs contrary to widely held expections that the election would concentrate on Russia and Civil Rights (mostly because both sides agree on these issues, but only marginally).

On election night, Rockefeller narrowly defeats Kennedy.

1964

Nelson Rockefeller/William Scranton -- 286 EV
John F. Kennedy/Lyndon B. Johnson -- 250 EV
Barry Goldwater 2 EV*

*Goldwater wins two write-in votes in Alabama and South Carolina respectively.

On November 4 1964 the nation wakes up to President-elect Nelson Rockefeller. However, the personal nature of the election left a bitter taste in the mouth. Furthermore, the race between Goldwater and Rockefeller suggested internal divisions within the Republican Party. The next four years would not be easy for President Rockefeller...

[Michael Z]

1968

With Rockefeller at the helm, the Civil Rights Bill was still signed, but at a later date (1966). The move was greeted by Democrats and liberal Republicans alike and was set to bring a new chapter in American history. Yet many on the conservative side of the Republican Party are deeply unhappy by what they regard as President Rockefeller's betrayal, and rumours of a Goldwater challenge in the 1968 primaries are ripe. Conservative Republicans are also upset by Rockefeller's refusal to send American troops to Vietnam, which Vice President Scranton describes as a "potential quagmire". Will 1968 bring a situation that could split the party into two?

The Democratic Campaign
The Democratic Primaries will go down in history as one of the most exciting and riveting in American political history, not simply because of the rivalries on display but also because of some unexpected results and a nailbitingly close finale.

The reason for this was the race between ex-Vice President Lyndon B. Johnson (who announced his candidacy as early as 1966 and was seen as an early shoo-in for the nomination) and surprise candidate Robert F. Kennedy.

With other candidates such as Stuart Symington and Hubert Humphrey falling by the wayside, the primaries eventually turn into a two-horse race between Johnson and Kennedy. The rivalry and sheer personal hostility between the two of them is well-known and captures national attention throughout the season.

However, it was RFK’s assertion to his brother when confirming (in spite of his personal feelings) to pick LBJ as his running mate, and his willingness to put personal feelings aside goes down well with many of the delegates. Johnson’s bid is further undermined by his hawkish stance on Vietnam, which does not go down well with the liberal wing of the party (Senator McGovern, publically supporting RFK, denounced Johnson in a widely aired speech).

Robert F. Kennedy wins the nomination, picking Maine Senator Edmund Muskie as his running mate.

The Republican Campaign
In spite of the rumours, a Goldwater challenge against Rockefeller does not surface. Many believe that a deal was done in which Goldwater and other prominent conservative Republicans would figure in a Rockefeller cabinet after a successful 1968 election. The move turns out to be a masterstroke, as this enables the President to win the support of many on the conservative wing, who had previously made his tenure in office difficult.

The election is given a further tentative twist when Democrat George Wallace puts his hat into the ring as an independent, anti-Civil Rights candidate. His move is bound to bring on board many conservatives disillusioned by the Rockefeller Presidency and the lack of a direct ideological challenge from his Democratic challenger.

In a decisive victory, Rockefeller manages to add another Kennedy to his collection of electoral scalps.

Nelson Rockefeller/William Scranton -- 299 EV
Robert F. Kennedy/Edmund Muskie -- 186 EV
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay -- 53 EV

Rockefeller aims to heal the divisions in the Republican Party by adding several senior conservatives into his Cabinet, including Goldwater as Secretary of Defense. At Goldwater's behest, he also adds a young prominent conservative into his cabinet as an adviser. Who? Why, no other than erstwhile Hollywood actor Ronald Reagan, a Goldwater cheerleader and someone with big political ambitions of his own...

The next four years of a Rockefeller Administration look set to be decidedly more conservative than the previous. This is not through the President's choice, however, but a question of sheer Realpolitik - any other decision could risk splitting the Party in two. How will this new-look Rockefeller administration deal with the looming crisis in Vietnam, which is also threatening to spread into Cambodia and other nations in the SE Asia region? The talk is of defending the region against the "Menace of communism"...

Next: 1972 and 1976. Stay tuned, as they say.

[Michael Z]

I would disagree with Michael Z. I think that Kennedy was very popular after the success in the Cuban Missel Crisis and I don`t think their was even a thought in the back of people`s minds that Kennedy would loose in 1964, now he could have dropped Johnson, but I don`t think that that would have made much difference. Please give me in full detail reasons why you think that Kennedy would loose.

You need to bear in mind that I drew out a solely hypothetical scenario there - not necessarily how I think things would have turned out, but how they might have done. This is a scenario where rumours of Kennedy's womanising (his numerous affairs) and his ill health (he was actually suffering from Addison's disease, which debilitated him greatly at times) seriously dented his credibility.

I forgot to go into further detail about his supposed mafia connections, which could also have overshadowed his political career.

I personally think that JFK was a great President for his role in the Cuban missile crisis, as well as for paving the way for the moon landings, but there were many things about him which could have severely dented his Presidency at any given moment.