Here are my predictions for the looong long run.
Hopelessly biased of course, with only a sprinkle of wishful thinking... honest. Sorry if this sounds desperately partisan, but after all it's just a bit of fun. Anyway, hope you can enjoy it even if you're not a crazy leftie like me.
2004The surprise result...
(D) John Kerry/John Edwards 274(R) George W Bush/Dick Cheney 2642008Foreign policy achievements 2004-2008: John Kerry pursues a lasting peace in Israel, brokering a deal between Israelis and Palestinians, with unfortunately only minor results - but it's a start. UN rule in Iraq achieved as a temporary measure to bridge the gap between occupation by coalition forces and establishing a fully fledged independent democratic state. Sends troops to Somalia to quell anarchy in the region (and succeeds, as opposed to the tragically disastrous campaign of 1993), thus eliminating a hotbed of terrorism. Capture of OBL, though Kerry doesn't take any of the credit and celebrates the capture alongside George W. Bush, giving due credit to his predecessors' policy of pursuing al-Qaeda. Generally restores some of the damaged diplomatic ties with traditional allies like France or Germany. Establishes a stronger US presence in eastern Europe, both militarily and economically.
Domestic achievements 2004-2008: Policies aimed at quelling the outsourcing of US jobs go through the newly appointed Democratic majority Senate in late 2006, thus giving Kerry's hithero crisis-ridden economic policy a well-needed boost.
Hillary Clinton is sensationally defeated in the 2006 senate elections by erstwhile rival Rudolph Giuliani, the latter becoming an immediate hero in Republican circles, even among the Religious Right (but more to that later). Clinton’s defeat gives a major dent to the campaign for nationalisation of the US health service, a big issue in post-GWB America thanks to a think tank formed by Howard Dean and Hillary Clinton, imaginatively (chuckle) titled Free Healthcare In America.
Republican Primaries 2008: The party is more or less split between moderates and neocons after GWB’s surprise defeat in 2004. McCain is seen as the initial favourite to represent the moderate wing of the party but rumours in 2004 surrounding a possible Vice Presidential campaign alongside John Kerry created major discontent amongst the GOP faithful. Additionally, McCain himself hints in numerous interviews throughout 2007 that he would rather not stand against an old friend and fellow Vietnam veteran. So no McCain in 2008. The eyes of the moderates therefore turn to Rudolph Giuliani. The neocons are represented by Jeb Bush, running primarily to avenge his brother’s defeat four years previously.
Both candidates have huge financial backing and the Republican primaries mesmerise the entire nation as Bush and Giuliani battle it out in the narrowest and possibly most suspense-filled Republican primaries since 1976, when Ford and Reagan faced each other in a clash of ideologies. And just like 1976, this is a contest between conservatives and moderates, the latter winning 2008 narrowly in the shape of Giuliani.
The Presidential campaign is a clash of the Titans, but a far cleaner one than the 2004 race (which was marred by negative campaigning from both sides, culminating in the infamous October 2004 “Kerry is a little girl and smells of wee”-advert). With polls predicting a narrow Giuliani victory, the world looks on aghast at the November campaign. Kerry has the edge in the debates, but Giuliani’s narrow lead isn’t dented. With all said and done, the result is…
(D) John Kerry/John Edwards 271(R) Rudolph Giuliani/Bill Frist 2672012After a surprising Kerry victory in 2008, Democrats are optimistic. Unfortunately the first two years of a second Kerry administration are dogged by economic crises (some of which are a culmination of Bush's fiscal policies some seven years previously), and Kerry’s approval ratings slump. The Republicans regain control of the Senate in 2010. Things pick up for President Kerry in late 2010 when he, UN Secretary-General Joschka Fischer (recently appointed), and the Israeli government mastermind the creation of a Palestinian state, assured security for Israel, and possible lasting peace in the Middle East.
Democratic Primaries: Vice President John Edwards goes almost unopposed (with the exception of fringe candidates Kucinich and Jesse Jackson Jr), Evan Bayh challenging early on but dropping out of the race two months before the primaries go underway proper, sparking speculation of a behind-the-doors deal including a possible Vice Presidential bid. Lo and behold, the Democrats present a Edwards/Bayh ticket come Convention-time.
The Republican Primaries are a different story. Giuliani's shock defeat moved Republican senators to push for a Constitutional amendment ensuring that foreign-born naturalised citizens can run for President, well aware of the fact that the most popular Republican in the country is California's Govenor Arnold Schwarzenegger (who changed state law in 2009 to ensure that the Govenor is chosen via means of a death match, therefore making his re-election a certainty every time... even at the ripe old age of 65). Unfortunately such efforts are stalled by an alliance of Democrats and Republicans (including or supporting potential Presidential candidates).
The Republican primaries are fought between Bill Frist, Rick Santorum, Roy Moore, Lamar Alexander and Chuck Hagel. All said and done, Senator Hagel sensationally wins the nomination (partially due to Santorum and Moore splitting the religious right's vote), choosing Alexander as his running mate.
Riding high on the Kerry legacy of a peace deal in the Middle East, an Edwards/Bayh ticket proves unbeatable against Hagel/Alexander.
(D) John Edwards/Evan Bayh 316(R) Chuck Hagel/Lamar Alexander 2222016The Edwards era is running fairly smoothly, apart from one incident in 2013, when Vice President Evan Bayh runs out of the White House blubbing and crying after Secretary Of State Abizaid makes fun of his haircut, never to be seen again. Harold Ford Jr is duly chosen as his replacement.
In 2015 a history-changing moment occurs when Republicans finally get the amendment they wanted - that foreign-born citizens can run for President. This automatically makes Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger a shoo-in for Presidential candidate.
Much sning ensues when Schwarzenegger chooses equally old ex-General Tommy Franks as his running mate, but they prove a tough double to beat as they manage to ensure victory against Edwards/Ford, albeit by a narrow margin.
(R) Arnold Schwarzenegger/Tommy Franks 274(D) John Edwards/Harold Ford 2642020Harold Ford chosen via nigh-on coronation process. Arnold wins 2020 election, simply because he's Arnold.
(R) Arnold Schwarzenegger/Tommy Franks 375(D) Harold Ford/Stephanie Herseth 163Coming Up: A Nym90/Demrepdan Administration, and the success of a Reaganfan/GWBFan ticket in 2032…
