The Greatest NUT - A State-by-State Results TL

[OBD]

2020 United States Presidential Election

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 476 EVs 86,533,065 61.25%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 62 EVs 54,753,805 38.75%

Coming soon...

Disclaimer: This is obviously not a prediction.

[OBD]

Maine

Presidential

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 449,070 61.93%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 276,082 38.07%

Our journey in unrealistic bliss (for Biden supporters, that is) begins in Maine, where Trump narrowed a historically Democratic state's margin to just three points. This round, though, he gets absolutely obliterated here, getting thumped by 22 points. Biden dominates in the Portland area, breaking 70% in Cumberland County, while also getting Obama '08-type numbers in the WWC northern half of the state that was previously trending hard away from Democrats. Maine's 2nd district, which voted for Trump by 10 in 2016, replicates that margin for Biden this year.

Senate (final round)
State House Speaker Sara Gideon 58.43% [DEMOCRATIC PICKUP]
Senator Susan Collins 41.57%

Incumbent Senator Susan Collins, a known moderate, was expected to run ahead of her party's national ticket thanks to years of built-up goodwill with Maine - however, in the face of the national Democratic wave, she ultimately stood no chance. Her moderate image had already been sullied by impeachment and the Kavanaugh/Barrett confirmations, and State House Speaker Sara Gideon trounced her in the first Democratic Senate pickup of the night.

House

Maine-02: With Biden's double-digit victory here, incumbent Representative Jared Golden cruised to re-election, winning by 15 points. Democratic Hold.

[OBD]

Neat stuff. What site is that first image from? It looks like it from one anyway.

Thanks! The first image is from the Cook Swing-O-Meter.

[OBD]

Do Indiana next!  #HaleYes

And cover some of the state-level downballot races and state legislatures if you can.

My plan is to work down from the Northeast, before covering Midwestern and Southern states, so I'll get there soon!

I'll look into covering some downballot races, but I doubt I have the expertise to do state legislatures, unfortunately.

[OBD]

New Hampshire

Presidential

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 448,157 60.47%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 292,988 39.53%

The Granite State, despite being a historic bellwether, was not immune to national trends. Thanks to Biden's resurgence among non-college-educated white voters and continued improvement with other demographics, New Hampshire gave him a landslide victory of a proportion unseen since the days of LBJ. The Biden/Harris ticket swept every county in the state, making inroads across the board.

Gubernatorial

State Senate Maj. Leader Dan Feltes 49.12%
Governor Chris Sununu 48.99%

Governor Chris Sununu was a relatively popular incumbent in a state amicable to (down)ballot-splitting, and before the Trump collapse was seen as a near-lock for re-election. However, overcoming a 20-point shellacking at the top of the ballot would be difficult for any candidate, even with a strong crossover vote. While Sununu put up a good fight, Democratic candidate Dan Feltes managed to mount a strong comeback on the back of the Democratic tsunami, and triumphed narrowly in a major upset victory despite winning just 4 counties (New Hampshire's Hillary 2016 counties). 

House
Thanks to a strong win at the top of the ballot, New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives survived easily. Not much to see here.

[OBD]

Do Indiana next!  #HaleYes

And cover some of the state-level downballot races and state legislatures if you can.

My plan is to work down from the Northeast, before covering Midwestern and Southern states, so I'll get there soon!

I'll look into covering some downballot races, but I doubt I have the expertise to do state legislatures, unfortunately.

That's fine.

You don't have to be specific, like Indiana House District 37 or something.  Just "Indiana Democrats picked up x number of seats in the state house, x in the state senate."

That's fine - I can do it on request then. But for now, I'm going to lump all of New England into one update - as let's face it, besides VT-Gov not much exciting is happening here.

New England

Vermont: Biden +39.0
Massachusetts: Biden +41.6
Connecticut: Biden +30.7
Rhode Island: Biden +32.3

The New England region is overall, fairly boring. Biden's 20-point improvement in the popular vote over Hillary is largely mirrored here, resulting in 4 county sweeps. Interestingly, Fairfield County, once the home of suburban strength for Connecticut Republicans, now votes for Biden by over 70%, an astounding turnaround. Meanwhile, Piscataquis County in Maine is the sole New England county to vote Trump, similar to 2008.

The House results are also static, with Democrats obviously holding all seats here. However, there is one competitive election...

Vermont Gubernatorial Election

Governor Phil Scott 51.59%
Lieutentant Governor David Zuckerman (Progressive Democrat) 46.07%

In one of the most Democratic states of the nation, popular (and moderate) Republican Governor Phil Scott has managed to carve out a surprisingly resilient base, holding on by a decent margin in the Democratic wave year of 2018. However, while 2020 initially seemed to be an entirely different beast, Republicans only lost 10 points here relative to 2016, and Scott was thus not in as dire a position as his eastern counterpart in Sununu. However, the sheer size of the Democratic wave cut deeply into his margin, and Scott only turned back his Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman by low single digits. His 2020 victory was the GOP's only statewide one in New England.

[OBD]

You forgot Shaheen haha

She wins by over 20 points. I'm not going to bother covering noncompetitive Senate races.

[OBD]

New York

Presidential

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 5,510,787 69.05%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 2,470,077 31.95%

While the outcome of the Empire State was never in doubt, the incredible margin scored by the Biden/Harris campaign surprised many. Democrats improved in both NYC and Upstate, sweeping all of the former's counties and making significant inroads in the latter, even flipping some counties that eluded Obama in 2008 and 2012.

House

Biden's massive win had significant implications for New York's downballot races.

1st District: Incumbent Lee Zeldin expected to cruise by fairly easily, but likely wasn't anticipating that Biden would win his district by 7 (a 19-point turnaround from 2016). Consequently, the door was left open for Democratic challenger Nancy Goroff, who managed to take down Zeldin by a thinner 3-point margin. Democratic Gain #1

2nd District: Rep. Peter King's retirement left this swing district open, and even before the Trump collapse the race between Democrat (and Babylon City Councillor) Jackie Gordon and Republican Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino was competitive. However, as Trump's 9-point victory morphed into an 11-point advantage for Biden, the political landscape of this district was upended. Thanks to superior spending, a motivated campaign, and the extremely favorable national environment, Gordon emerged victorious by a robust 9-point margin, picking up another New York seat for Democrats. Democratic Gain #2

11th District: Moderate Democratic Rep. Max Rose, representing historically conservative Staten Island, was seen as highly vulnerable, especially with Republicans fielding a top-tier candidate in Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. However, with Biden winning the district (and carrying Staten Island, for that matter), Malliotakis's path to victory was effectively closed. In the closing days of the campaign, the RNC triaged this seat as it frantically redirected resources to defend suddenly vulnerable incumbents, allowing Rose to romp to an easy 14-point re-election win. Democratic Hold

19th District: Freshman Rep. Antonio Delgado was situated on friendlier ground than many of his fellow NY Democratic counterparts elected in 2018, and with Biden winning his district decidedly this advantage was amplified. While Delgado's 2018 win was considered an upset, he cruised to victory in an even more favorable 2020 environment. Democratic Hold

21st District: Rep. Elise Stefanik, a rising star in the Republican Party, had recently shifted more in favor of Trump, shedding her former reputation as a moderate. While she was initially safe, this political calculation turned out to be a bad bet, with Trump's numbers cratering across Upstate New York and Biden winning her district by 6 points. Consequently, 2018 Democratic candidate Tedra Cobb was suddenly handed a golden upset opportunity. As of right now, Stefanik currently holds a 100-vote lead in this suddenly-competitive race, and, barring a recount surprise, is expected to weather legal challenges from Cobb to win a razor-thin re-election. Probable Republican Hold

22nd District: Rep. Anthony Brindisi, stranded in a district Trump won by 15 in 2016, was a top RNC target this cycle. Former Rep. Claudia Tenney, who Brindisi ousted in 2018, ran to reclaim her former seat. Ultimately, Brindisi took an early polling advantage, which quickly blew up as GOP numbers cratered across the nation. Outrunning the national ticket by 9 points, Brindisi emerged victorious in a 56-42 landslide. Democratic Hold

23rd District: Rep. Tom Reed received a minor scare in 2018, only winning this Upstate district by 8 points. However, his rematch with Democrat Tracy Mitrano was not expected to be competitive. Unlike his fellow Republican Elise Stefanik, though, Trump's collapse in New York was enough to take him down - fueled by record turnout in the college town of Ithaca, Mitrano upset Reed by a margin just under one point. Democratic Gain #3

24th District: Rep. John Katko of Syracuse had been one of the GOP's most resilient congressmen - surviving the wave election of 2018 in a district that voted for Clinton. However, 2020 - and the over-20-point shellacking Trump received in his district - was more than enough to do him in. Democrat Dana Balter, in a rematch of 2018, broke through, defeating Katko by 11 points. Democratic Gain #4

27th District: The most Republican district in New York had nonetheless been filled with electoral intrigue, thanks to the nefarious dealings of former Rep. Chris Collins. With Collins out of the seat, Republicans expected to hold the seat easily with relatively noncontroversial candidate Chris Jacobs - however, they received a major scare when Democrat Nate McMurray pulled the special election to within 5 points. The November election was a reprise of that saga with a different ending - while McMurray fell behind early, a strong mail-in vote pushed him, at last, to an upset victory, defeating Jacobs by 3 points. Democratic Gain #5

[OBD]

New Jersey

Presidential

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 2,601,631 65.37%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 1,378,427 34.63%

Like its northeastern neighbor, New Jersey was never competitive - and in the end, the Biden/Harris campaign landslided here. Biden swept all but 4 counties here (while nearly winning historically Republican Cape May County), even breaking 60% in historically Republican Morris County.

House

As in New York, Biden's strong victory had implications for downballot races - while Senator Cory Booker was duly re-elected, many competitive House races were affected by the Presidential result.

2nd District: Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Republican elected as a Democrat in the 2018 wave, was another incumbent who made a poor political calculation. In an 18-point shift from 2016, Biden won his district by a whopping 13 points. Consequently, Democrat Amy Kennedy easily defeated him by a healthy 12-point margin, avenging his 2020 party switch. Democratic Gain #6

3rd District: Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, elected in 2018, was seen as a top Republican target in the state - fellow freshmen Tom Malinowski and Mikie Sherril were virtually safe in D-trending suburban districts. However, Republican candidate David Richter never got much traction, and Kim cruised to a double-digit win on Election Night. Democratic Hold

4th District: While Rep. Chris Smith occupied one of most Republican districts in the Northeast, Biden's surge meant the district was highly competitive on the presidential level, as Biden won it by 4 points. Smith, however, was a well-entrenched incumbent - but ultimately, he won by a significantly reduced 5-point margin. Republican Hold

[OBD]

Pennsylvania

Presidential

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 3,726,904 60.25%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 2,458,513 39.75%


The Keystone State broke the hearts of Democrats nationwide in 2016 - Trump's narrow upset victory here was critical in electing him President. However, four years later, Biden exacted revenge for this devastating defeat, winning Pennsylvania by a dominating 20-point margin. He crushed Trump by historic proportions in the Philadelphia suburbs, while also tapping into historic Democratic strength in Erie, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre (Biden's birthplace), and the Pittsburg area. Additionally, Lancaster County, once a heavily Amish Republican stronghold, finally flipped Democratic.

House
1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, despite representing a Clinton-won district, won re-election in the 2018 wave year, and was thus expected to defeat Democrat Christina Finello in 2020. However, in a story that repeated in multiple districts across the nation, Biden's unexpectedly large margins flummoxed formerly-Safe Republican incumbents. With Bucks County voting Democratic by over 20 points, Fitzpatrick ultimately stood little chance, going down by low double digits to Finello despite being seen by many as a "strong incumbent". Democratic Gain #6

8th District: While newly elected Democrat Susan Wild in the neighboring 7th district was seen as fairly safe, longtime Rep. Matthew Cartwright was positioned on much more unfavorable ground - WWC, and R-trending, Northeastern Pennsylvania. While 2022 might give Republicans an opening to finally defeat him, Biden's landslide win in Scranton and resurgence in Luzerne County shut that possibility out for this election cycle.  Democratic Hold

10th District: Rep. Scott Perry was a top DNC target even before the Trump collapse thanks to favorable trends and a strong opposition candidate in PA Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. With Biden winning Harrisburg-based Dauphin County with over 60% of the vote, Perry never stood a chance. DePasquale won with a solid double digit margin for the seventh Democratic House pickup thus far.  Democratic Gain #7

11th District: Before the Trump collapse, literally no one saw this Lancaster County-based district as competitive. Rep. Lloyd Smucker was seen as a lock for re-election, and his opponent, Sarah Hammond, was seemingly a nobody. However, with Trump nearly losing this district, Hammond came surprisingly close to upsetting Smucker, losing by just 4 points. That said, Democrats are not seriously expected to contend here in the future barring a redistricting surprise.  
Republican Hold

16th District: While this district, held by Republican Mike Kelly, was competitive in 2018, the DNC has mostly written it off by 2020. But with Biden winning Erie County by a wide margin while also regaining support in the district's conservative rural tail, the door was opened for Democrat Kristy Gnibus to make an upset run. On Election Night, Gnibus ultimately pulled ahead late as mail-in ballots were counted, picking up a third Pennsylvania seat for Democrats.  Democratic Gain #8

...and as an aside

Delaware

Ultimately, not much interesting happened in Joe Biden's home state - while the Swing-O-Meter result was a 28-point win, Biden's true win here was larger thanks to his strong personal popularity in Delaware. Accordingly, Biden swept all three counties, breaking 70% in New Castle (home of Wilmington) as well.

[OBD]

Maryland

Presidential

Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-DE) / Kamala D. Harris (D-CA) 2,007,229 71.54%
Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 798,477 28.46%

Only one phrase can accurately describe the Maryland result - total obliteration. The Biden/Harris ticket won over 2 million votes here, a first for any Maryland campaign, by getting North Korea-style margins out of Baltimore and the DC burbs while improving significantly in the Eastern Shore and Baltimore's outlying communities.

House

As expected, Republican Kimberly Klacick was obliterated in Baltimore, so not much to see there.

1st District: Rep. Andy Harris, a staunch conservative and Freedom Caucus member, was expected to cruise to re-election - but following the Trump collapse, was thrown into a district that only voted Republican by 4 points. Consequently, his election was unexpectedly close. However, his opponent Mia Mason was crucially underfunded, allowing him to win a fairly solid 10-point re-election. The fact that the race here was so close likely emboldens Maryland Democrats's hope of pursuing an 8-0 gerrymander, though (assuming Governor Hogan's arm can be twisted into doing so). Republican Hold

And, as another aside, DC votes Biden by well over 90%. Surprising? Not in the slightest.

[OBD]

Bump.

County map got deleted, fixing in progress.

[OBD]

Ohio

Presidential


Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 3,108,863 votes 56.67%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 2,376,629 votes 43.33%

In a 14-point landslide, Vice President Biden rode out to one of the largest Democratic Ohio wins in history, reminiscent of 2008 - however, Biden significantly outran Obama while relying on a different coalition victory. Gone were the days of Democratic strength in the Applachia region - however, Biden more than made up for those losses in the suburbs - winning or coming close in the once-Republican strongholds outside of Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland. Biden's conquests also included suburban Fairfield County in the Columbus MSA - a county that absolutely no one expected to flip.

House

1st District: Republican Steve Chabot had survived the Democratic wave of 2018 despite representing a major urban area, thanks to a Republican gerrymander of the state. However, with Biden demolishing Trump in his district by double digits, Democrat Kate Schroder was easily able to pick up the seat. Democratic Gain #9

2nd District: Rep. Brad Wenstrup, representing the other half of Cincinnati, was never expected to face much challenge. But like many other Republican incumbents, he found himself in a Trump-Biden district - albeit one that voted blue by a comparatively small 4-point margin. While Democrat Jaime Castle never had much momentum, a general decline in ticket-splitting meant that Wenstrup just barely scraped by by a 1-point margin, a race signalling a stunning failure of the Ohio GOP gerrymander. Republican Hold

10th District: A district consisting of the competitive Dayton area and conservative rurals, Ohio's 10th District was a prime Democratic target in the blue tsunami era. Swinging from Trump +7 to Biden +13, incumbent Rep. Mike Turner was thrown into an unwinnable race. Lobbyist Desiree Tims defeated Turner by 8 points, a second Ohio pickup for Democrats. Democratic Gain #10

12th District: The suburban Columbus 12th District had previously played host to two competitive election, with Republican Troy Balderson triumphing both times. However, this time, the Democratic candidate here (business owner Alaina Shearer) was supported by a strong top-ballot performance from Biden, with the 12th swinging 25 points towards Democrats. Ultimately, Shearer would defeat Balderson by a handy 10-point margin. Democratic Gain #11

14th District: Like the other Ohio districts, here, the NE Ohio-based 14th was a gerrymander gone wrong for the GOP thanks to Biden's overperformance. While this district - represented by Republican David Joyce - didn't swing as hard to the left as others, it still voted for Biden by near-double-digits - propelling veteran Hillary O'Connor Mueri (a fairly generic candidate) to victory. Democratic Gain #12

15th District: Unlike its fellow suburban Columbus district, the 15th District swung right from 2012 to 2016, and was thus seen as a less viable Democratic victory. In 2020, though, Biden's victory  and strong performance in the Columbus suburbs and the college town of Athens created a perfect storm against GOP Rep. Steve Stivers. Political neophyte Joel Newby won narrowly here, for Democratic Gain #13.

16th District: Freshman Rep. Anthony Gonzales was heavily favored to win re-election in this suburban Cleveland seat, but Biden's 6-point win significantly altered his political calculus. Ultimately, though, Gonzales lucked out - his opponent, Aaron Godfrey, was fairly weak and underfunded, and Republicans were thus able to barely hold this seat.  Republican Hold

[OBD]

Yeah, this likely ain't happening in RL, but it is nice to dream (I'd sooner buy Trump winning re-election than this, IMO)...

That being said, this is a fun scenario to write about...

I never claimed to be a predictor of the future!

Anyway, let's move on to...

West Virginia

President

Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 402,231 votes 57.70%
Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 294,853 votes 42.30%

Even in the ultimate NUT universe, Biden was never going to win West Virginia - Trump won by over 40 points in 2016, and the WWC, #populist makeup of this state was an atrocious fit for the modern Democratic party. However, in a combination of improvements in the state's more populated areas and the closing of margins in rural Appalachia led Biden to pull within 15 points here, an impressive performance.

Governor
Party-switcher and Republican Governor Jim Justice was seen as potentially vulnerable even before the Trump collapse, though West Virginia's deep crimson shade insulated him against a challenge from Democrat Ben Salango. But with Trump failing to trounce Biden by a large enough margin, the unpopular Justice lost one of his most important lifelines. Salango won 51-47 in a surprising Democratic Gain.

Senate

Despite electing Democrat Joe Manchin to Senate in 2018, West Virginia's 2020 Senate Election was not expected to be competitive - especially as Democrat Paula Jean Swearagin was well to the left of the state. However, with Biden's surprising performance combining with the state's more Democratic downballot tendencies. Swearagin gave incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito a good scare, losing 54-45.

House

2nd District: Stretching from Charleston to the DC exurbs, this district was the most Democratic of the West Virginia trio, and as an added bonus, Rep. Alex Mooney was notorious for embarrassing underperformances. With the district going to Trump by just 10 points, the door was open for an upset win, and Democrat Cathy Kunkel capitalized, winning the seat by 2 points in one of the night's biggest shockers. Democratic Gain #14

[OBD]

Thanks for the kind words, everyone!

Now, onto...

Virginia

Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 2,532,070 votes 62.81%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 1,499,322 votes 37.19%

Once a Republican stronghold, the 2020 Election cemented Virginia's status as a solidly Democratic state. The Biden/Harris ticket defeated Trump in a landslide here - performing well in urban and suburban areas while making significant inroads in rurals. Resultantly, they swept nearly every Eastern Virginia county, and the stark divide between Democratic East and Republican West can be seen on the above map.

1st District: Rep. Rob Wittman was initially seen as Safe in this relatively conservative Tidewater district. But, with the federal Biden wipeout in the area, Wittman rapidly found himself underwater. Democrat Qasim Rashid defeated Wittman by a 5-point margin in the wake of Biden's East Virginia landslide. Democratic Gain #15

2nd/7th District: Democrats Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger were both elected to suburban Trump districts in 2018, and were top RNC targets in 2020. However, with Biden winning the Richmond and Virginia Beaches suburbs by obscene margins, Luria and Spanberger were basically guaranteed re-election, winning by comfortable margins each.  Democratic Hold

5th District: With ultraconservative Bob Good upsetting Rep. Denver Riggleman in a primary convention, the race in this Republican-held district was already awash in controversy. And, Doctor and Democratic candidate Cameron Webb was a strong recruit, and polling here was already close before Trump's collapse. With Biden, surprisingly, winning this district by nearly double digits, Webb was able to cruise to victory against Good.  Democratic Gain #16

[OBD]

North Carolina

Presidential

Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 2,922,487 votes 58.57%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 2,067,574 votes 41.43%

In the largest Democratic victory here since the days of the Solid South, Vice President Biden demolished Trump here by winning over many disaffected suburban Republicans and gaining back Democratic support in rural areas. This was most visible in southeastern North Carolina, where Biden flipped nearly every county, and in Cabarrus County, a once Titanium-R Charlotte suburb that flipped blue. Biden also made inroads in Appalachia thanks to strong working-class appeal, though those areas are unlikely to vote Democratic again anytime soon.

Gubernatorial

Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was always heavily favored to win re-election over Republican Lt. Governor Dan Forest, and with Biden winning by much more than expected the prognosis for this race did not change. Cooper won by 22 points in an easy layup of a race. Democratic Hold

Senate
Democrat veteran Cal Cunningham was in a decidedly less favorable position than Cooper - for one, he was challenging an incumbent (Republican Thom Tillis), and was also hit by a late-breaking infidelity scandal that threatened to turn off crucial swing voters. However, Biden won by so much that him losing became an impossibility. Cunningham ultimately beat down Tillis by a 10-point margin - respectable for North Carolina, but decidedly lukewarm in comparison to Biden and Cooper's dominating wins. Democratic Senate Gain #2

House

2nd and 6th Districts: These two Republican-held districts were redrawn by a court-order, effectively locking out their incumbents by drawing them into safely Democratic metro areas. The Democratic candidates here - Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning - easily won election to the House. Democratic Gains #17 and #18

7th District: Incumbent Dave Rouzer, representing a Trump +20 district stretching from Wilmington to the Raleigh suburbs, was initially not a Democratic target, and Democratic candidate Christopher Ward received little DNC support. But, Trump's collapse in Southeastern North Carolina gave Ward an opportunity. Rouzer, while not unpopular, was fairly anonymous -  allowing Ward to pull a stunning upset win. Democratic Gain #19

8th District and 9th District: These districts, both stretching from suburban Charlotte to the Sandhills, both had similar partisanship and general characteristics. Consequently, their election results mirrored each other. Thanks to strong swings for Biden in the suburbs, both the 8th and 9th districts voted Democratic by double digits, carrying Democrats Patricia Timmons and Cynthia Wallace over the line. Democratic Gains #20 and #21

11th District: Republican candidate Madison Cawthorn gained attention for being one of the youngest House candidates ever - and with this attention came controversy, with scrutiny emerging over his visit of a Hitler vacation property and alleged racist rhetoric, among others. This, in addition to Biden's overperformance in the district, gave Democrat Ret. Colonel Morris Davis a golden opportunity to flip this Appalachian Asheville-based district blue. On Election Night, Davis defeated Cawthorn by 7 points while outrunning Biden in the district - a rare feat for a 2020 Democratic House candidate. Democratic Gain #22

[OBD]

South Carolina

Presidential

Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 1,196,497 votes 53.71%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 1,031,145 votes 46.29%

note: I have retroactively reverted Lancaster County and Greenville County to Republican - apologies for the error, this change will be reflected in the national county map.  

Mirroring its northern neighbors in North Carolina and Virginia, a major east-west divide emerged in South Carolina. Trump managed to retain some semblance of strength in the heavily Republican northwest of the state, but bled badly in the eastern half - losing every eastern county but Horry. Biden significantly overperformed in the Charleston and Charlotte suburbs, continuing a general trend, while also making up ground in the rurals with elevated black turnout and (relatively) reduced WWC turnout. The result was a 7-point victory - the first for any Democrat since Jimmy Carter.

Senate

Trump's last minute collapse also crippled incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham, who had tied himself closely to the President. Many voters were disgusted by Graham's hypocritical behavior, and the rapid decline in GOP numbers here gave them an opportunity to pay him back. Democrat Jaime Harrison, after running an energetic underdog campaign, was rewarded with a dominant 9-point win - Democrats's third Senate pickup. Democratic Senate Gain #2

House

As the analysis is becoming monotonous (variations of Safe R, however, because of Biden now competitive), I'm just going to list the results.

1st District: Cunningham (D) re-elected 57-42 Democratic Hold

2nd District: Wilson (R) defeats Boroughs (D) 51-47 Republican Hold

5th District: Brown (D) defeats Norman (R) 50-49 Democratic Gain #22

7th District: Rice (R) defeats Watson (D) 52-46 Republican Hold

[OBD]

Georgia

Presidential

Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 2,573,298 votes 58.58%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 1,819,365 votes 41.42%

Similarly to North and South Carolina, at first glance Biden's Georgia landslide appears to be motivated by rurals - several counties in Georgia's Black Belt flipped, turning nearly all of SW Georgia blue. However, the real motivator behind Biden's smashing 17-point victory was Atlanta and her suburbs. Biden obliterated Trump in historically Republican Gwinnett and Cobb counties, while pulling closer in Atlanta's once blood-red exurbs.

Senate (Regular)

While Democrat Jon Ossoff was favored to beat incumbent David Perdue's margin in the first round, it was unclear if he could reach the 50% needed to win outright. Ultimately, though, Biden solved this problem for him - thanks to his coattails, Ossoff pulled out a 55-43 win, finally arriving in DC after a crushing 2017 special election loss. Democratic Senate Gain #3

Senate (Special)

This race was a nail-biter, though not in a conventional manner. Thanks to Georgia's runoff system, any candidate wishing to get a first-round win must win over 50% of the vote, and due to vote-splitting, Democrat Raphael Warnock was not in a favorable position to do so. But with Biden nearly getting 59% in the state, his chances were buoyed significantly. On Election Night, Warnock just barely got over the 50% threshold, with Republicans Loeffler (at 24%) and Collins (at 20%) trailing. And ultimately, he won the election outright with 50.02% of the vote, a very close call. Democratic Senate Gain #4
This might be one of the last updates before the election - I'm doing some Atlasia stuff, and I'm overall just too stressed lol. Probably will continue after the election though - either as an extra NUT in the event of a Biden victory, or a sad wank in the event of a Trump victory. Cheers.

[OBD]

I'll think about it. If I do continue this, should I do it taking actual 2020 into account or no?

[OBD]

I'll think about it. If I do continue this, should I do it taking actual 2020 into account or no?

Maybe when you’re done, you can do a Trump landslide timeline.

Sorry but no, lol

I'll think about it. If I do continue this, should I do it taking actual 2020 into account or no?

Just for all the future ones id say. It might be too much work to change the past ones.

It might just become a uniform swing thing then, but this was along the lines of what I was thinking.

[OBD]

Anyway, this will be back soon. I will be taking some more creative license with margins, though.

[OBD]

Florida

Presidential

Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 57.56%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 42.44%

Ahh, Florida. The bane of 2020 Democrats IRL. But in this universe, Florida is solidly blue, voting for Biden by a smashing 15-point margin - though many prognosticators were mildly surprised that it voted significantly rightward of Georgia and North Carolina. Biden's landslide in a traditionally inelastic state came from many factors - he surged among seniors in the state, flipping back ancestrally Democratic areas that went Republican due to an influx of conservative olds, as well as Penascola. And, he continued improving in Central Florida's urban areas, nearly reaching 70% in Orlando while breaking 60% in Jacksonville. However, Biden underperformed in Miami-Dade, sliding back slightly from Clinton's performance among Cubans and other Hispanics (though maintaining solid margins).

House (Florida)

1st District: Gaetz (R) re-elected 55-43 Republican Hold

3rd District: Christensen (D) elected 51-49 Democratic Gain #23

4th District: Rutherford (R) re-elected 53-47 Republican Hold

6th District: Waltz (R) re-elected 52-48 Republican Hold

8th District: Posey (R) re-elected 54-46 Republican Hold

15th District: Cohn (D) elected 52-48 Democratic Gain #24

16th District: Good (D) elected 52-48 Democratic Gain #25

18th District: Keith (D) elected 49.2-48.6 Democratic Gain #26

19th District: Donalds (R) elected 54-46 Republican Hold

26th District: Murcasal-Powell (D) re-elected 57-43 Democratic Hold

27th District: Shalala (D) re-elected 56-44 Democratic Hold

House (Georgia)

1st District: Carter (R) re-elected 51-49 Republican Hold

7th District: Bordeaux (D) elected 60-40 Democratic Gain #27

10th District: Hice (R) re-elected 56-44 Republican Hold

11th District: Loudermilk (R) re-elected 51-49 Republican Hold

12th District: Allen (R) re-elected 51-49 Republican Hold

[OBD]

Alabama

Presidential

Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 52.57%
Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 46.03%

Alabama, one of the most notoriously conservative states in the Union, surprisingly closed to just six and a half points, motivated by strong black-belt turnout for Biden and a Republican collapse across the state concentrated in the suburbs. Once Titanium Republican, Shelby County (Birmingham Suburbs) gave Biden over 40% of the vote, while Mobile, Tuscaloosa, Auburn, and Huntsville all flipped. However, Alabama's deeply conservative northern locales (and Biden still running behind Jones '17 in the Black Belt) kept the state in the Trump column.

Senate

Senator Doug Jones's seat was always seen as a rental for Democrats, with Tuberville racing out to early leads in polls and the DSCC triaging the seat. But, with Biden pulling within six, Jones's goal of pulling over enough Trump voters to get an upset win appeared to be much easier. Sadly for Jones, though, he outran Biden by far less than expected. On Election Night, he trailed Tuberville 50.44-49.56, or 20,000 votes, and declined to pursue a recount. Republican Senate Gain #1

[OBD]

Mississippi

Presidential

Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 50.62%
Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 48.45%

After teasing Democrats in 2018 and 2019, the Magnolia State finally flipped (albeit in a national landslide). Like in neighboring Alabama, Democrats swept the Black Belt counties while making inroads in ancestrally Republican suburban areas - winning DeSoto County while pulling surprisingly close in Rankin County and Biloxi. These gains - plus a narrowing of margins in heavily conservative portions of Northeastern and Southeastern Mississippi, allowed Biden to take a two-point victory over Trump in a major upset.

Senate

Speaking of upsets, Democratic candidate Mike Espy was written off by basically every pundit before the election, though a highly favorable poll surfaced in the waning days of the campaign. However, in one of the biggest surprises of the night, Espy outperformed Biden by six points, and defeated incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith in an eight-point cakewalk. While 2020 was certainly an aberration of a wave year, Espy's surprisingly potent performance without national aid gives hope to Mississippi Democrats for the future of their party. Democratic Senate Gain #5

[OBD]

Oops, forgot about this after...that happened. Probably gonna focus on IRL, Atlasia, and my other TL, but I'll do my best to continue this. Sorry!

Tennessee

Presidential

Donald Trump (R-FL) / Mike Pence (R-IN) 50.67%
Joe Biden (D-DE) / Kamala Harris (D-CA) 47.43%

With anti-Trumpism sweeping the nation, Tennessee was no exception - the solidly Republican state voted for Trump by just three points as the Biden/Harris ticket improved across the state. This was most visible in suburban Williamson County - once a conservative bastion, this Nashville ring county flipped to Biden by a narrow one-point margin. And, the Appalachian cities of Chattanooga and Knoxville at last flipped blue, as well as the military town of Clarksville. Biden also overperformed considerably in the rurals - but the double-digit defeats inflicted upon him there kept him from being the first Democrat to win Texas since Bill Clinton was President. 

Senate

Republican candidate Bill Hagerty was expected to cruise to victory in ruby-red Tennessee - but, on Election Night, Democratic candidate Marquita Bradshaw was pulled ahead by Biden's coattails. However, a not-insignificant count of Biden-Hagerty voters meant that Bradshaw ran behind Biden by four points, allowing the GOP to hold on to the seat 52-45. Republican Hold