AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
Posts: 871
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17
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« on: June 07, 2019, 01:00:56 PM » |
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Way too early to know candidates. Or even the direction of the party. All we can say at this point is there will be your typical competing factions: "we didn't go conservative enough/we didn't turn out the base" and "we need to moderate and appeal to group XYZ". Same as any other party that loses in every other election ever.
As to which side "wins".. well, that largely depends on the issues. Parties form positions based on their reactions to national conditions, not the other way around. Take immigration for example- if the economy is booming (particularly in the rust belt), real wage growth is up, and immigration (whether illegal or not) is sharply down, then there won't be appetite for an anti-immigrant candidate, no matter how badly some people want it.
And likewise, if the reverse is true, then a loudly anti-immigrant politician is going to gain traction, no matter how much other elements of the GOP may dislike it.
But again- parties form positions based on their reactions to national conditions, not the other way around.
The GOP was for much of its history a strongly pro-tariff party. It changed its position on that not because a bunch of people woke up one day and suddenly decided they didn't like tariffs anymore so they were going to stop advocating for them. It changed its position because the way the US economy was structured after WW2 changed and American businesses became less dependant on domestic manufacturing. So the GOP reacted to that reality.
What issues the GOP focuses on, and what position it takes on those issues, is largely going to depend on what large national challenges the US will be facing in 2024.
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