2020 Trend Map?

[AN63093]

Trend maps usually look like some form of a garbled mess.

This.

I get where you're going with this S&C, but your map just looks a little too.... I dunno... "neat" to be realistic.


This far out, I can't really make any trend predictions, since it's way too early to even have an educated guess about where the national PV will be.  But I will re-post my current swing map:

Explanations:

MI- dark red to denote that I think this state will not only swing D, but flip.

CA- Dems close to maxing out, so all it needs is a little bit of Trump-outrage fatigue.  If it doesn't happen this cycle and the Dems win 2020, then it's a near lock for a 2024 R swing.

AZ- it had the highest D swing last time, after UT, CA, and TX.  I do think this is a state that's trending D long term, but I think it got out a little bit over its skis, so we might see a "course correction" for one cycle.  Won't be very much, maybe 1% or so.

WV- GOP is getting close to maxed out in this state.  WV trended R 7 times in row, which is absurd.  At some point there will be a dead cat bounce, even if its less than 1%.  This is assuming the Dems run a certain candidate though; e.g., if the Dems run Harris, it's not gonna swing D.

OK- shaded green, because I just don't know what to do with this state.  This is another one I think the GOP is close to maxed out on, but on the other hand, OK swung R even in 2008 (one of only 5 states to do so), and the margin there is pretty consistently in the low 30s.  I guess I could see a small D swing, but not as confident in the others.

This map is assuming Harris isn't the nominee.

[AN63093]

If we're talking about swing, it's certainly possible.  In '92, every state swung D except IA.  In '80, every state swung R but VT.  In '72, every state swung R except SD.  In '32, every single state swung D.  I'm sure there are many other examples I'm missing.

I think pittsburghsteel was talking about swing, even if he didn't realize it.

Now in terms of trend, that's a much more difficult (and perhaps, interesting) question.  It may mathematically be possible, but I'm not sure.  For '20, it would require a scenario where GOP turnout went way, way up (perhaps Trump even winning the PV), but it would have to be concentrated in such a way that a minimum of states are affected and so the votes are wasted.  So for example, if like millions of Republicans popped out of nowhere in NYC and voted Trump (or if millions of Dems in NYC all decided to flip to Trump for some reason), such that the national PV moved R, but no other state was affected (or swung D).

Even then though, you'd have a minimum of one state trending R, NY in this case.  I don't know if it's possible with zero states.