Will Trump be a 1 term President?

[AN63093]

At this point, I'd say he'd probably win re-election, although I don't think he'll win the PV (in fact, he could actually decline in the PV, depending on whether the Dems have hit a ceiling in CA or not).

I think a lot of the posts in this thread are mostly wishful thinking or rooted in emotions rather than dispassionate observation (which I am doing, since it does not particularly matter to me who wins in '20.. both parties are likely to advocate policies in my economic self interest so I have no dog in the hunt).

I'm not sure his approval ratings are terribly instructive... going into the election last year, Trump was a known quantity and relatively disliked.  He can be intensely disliked but if the Dems don't have a candidate that is relateable and affable, then people are going to go with the devil they know.  It's not simply enough to be the "anti-Trump."  If that was the case, then Clinton would be president right now.

So we'll see if the Democrats can put forth someone that really resonates enough with the people to take out an incumbent.  One thing to note is that because the US is so polarized right now, only a few states are relevant, and within those states, there are a handful of counties that are of critical importance.  So it doesn't really matter how much people in CA hate him- he can have a 0% approval rating there, and it's entirely irrelevant.

I think the Dems probably get back MI regardless (unless Detroit turnout is way down again this time around), but if you look at a place like PA.. Clinton beat Obama in turnout, pretty conclusively, in the Philly MSA but still lost the state.  So the Dems need someone that can appeal in places like Erie and Scranton, and I don't think most of those voters are going to be easily swayed by just beating the same drum over and over (i.e., Trump is evil, racist, sexist, Hitler, etc.).  I think the Dems are going to need a candidate that actually personally appeals to these people and I'm not sure they have it (yet).  They could.  We'll see.

The other option is the Dems just boost minority turnout and write off PA, and I think that would work for MI, but FL I'm not so sure.  Turnout was actually pretty good in FL and Clinton was beating out Obama in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, etc., so the Dems may have to actually flip some northern counties which leads us back to the same issue.