Light green/cyan- NC
Every year NC is probably the hardest state in the US to predict in terms of swing/trend/margin, so it's always interesting to me to see what unfolds.
Light red/blue
These states are closed to maxed out, if not already maxed out, so they're due for a small swing, if not a trend, in the opposite direction. Will be curious to see if the parties can find yet more votes in these states or if they've reached their ceiling.
Red/Blue
These states will probably trend towards the party indicated in the future, but I'm not sure yet if it'll happen this cycle or there will be "bounce back." With AZ, it had the fourth highest D swing in the country, so I'm wondering if it got a little "ahead of itself" for one cycle and could swing back R (even if just <1%). I'm more sure that GA will swing D, though I'm not sure about trend.
With the New England states, every county but 1 in these states (except NH, which had 2 counties) swung and trended R so I'm wondering if we'll see the same thing I'm thinking with AZ (i.e., there'll be a slight swing 'back' towards the Dems, in this case). If not, then this area is trending R quicker than I thought.
Dark Green
KS both swung and trended D which was one of the oddest things to happen in '16. So this is probably #1 on my list of states to watch.
All the other states I've already got a pretty good idea how they'll swing so they are less interesting. Trend is a lot harder to predict at this time since it's too early to predict how the national PV will move (though I suspect the Dems will win it).
