Which state will be each parties fools gold in 2020?

[AN63093]

States like MN and ME aren't fools gold.  Sure, they would take some particular circumstances for the GOP to win (such as the Dems nominating a real dud of a candidate), but they are states that are trending GOP, are good long-term investments, and are within grasp.

Same goes for places like AZ and GA for the Dems.  Maybe they won't win them this cycle (in fact, I think they won't), but it's not money wasted since they are trending D and might be their best chance for pick-ups in 2024 or beyond.

When I think of "fools gold," I think of states that look like they could be winnable, but in practical terms are not only unwinnable (outside of a landslide), but are actually trending in the opposite direction, and yet people stubbornly refuse to believe it.  These people often tend to naively believe a state will magically go back to behaving like it did in the past.  These people are also usually dim-witted and make predictions that look rather silly after a few years pass, like claiming VT was still in play for the GOP in '92.


For the GOP, fools gold states are CO and VA.  You would think people would've gotten the message about these states, but I still see people claiming that they are swing states, which particularly in the case of VA, is one of the dumbest things I see on this forum.  Every $ spent in these states is money wasted that should be going to places like PA, ME, MN, WI, and MI.

For the Dems, I would say OH and IA.  They aren't quite as fools gold as the GOP states, because I think they could still technically flip without a D landslide, but it would require the right type of candidate (of which is unlikely to win the D primary) and a pretty substantial change in D party messaging, which I don't see any interest in from the party currently.  Even if they're still technically within grasp, these states are some of the worst investments possible for the Dems since they're not trending D and there's no reason to expect that they will start.  Every $ spent in these states is money wasted that should be going to places like AZ and GA, which although I think are still a couple cycles away from flipping.. the groundwork needs to begin now if they want to make a serious challenge in 2024.


Some states that I don't think are "fools gold" but would be "tough to win" states that might nonetheless be poor investments: NV for the GOP, NC for the Dems.