Will she or won't she?

[AN63093]

Morden is right on the money.  I don't know how long he's been following presidential elections, but I have since the early 90s or so, and his method of analysis is the correct one.

Very, very rarely will a candidate come out and announce a run this early.  90% of the time a candidate will give some elusive statement about how they're "not running" until the time they actually announce, so you learn to just ignore those statements.  

In order to have an idea of who actually is going to end up running, you have to follow the "invisible primary" or.. I guess, the "tea leaves."  Though I don't like that term, because it implies that this process is like a fortune teller or something, just straight pulling BS right out of your ass, when in reality, if you're following the invisible primary closely, there are plenty of concrete things to point to (there is some speculation as well, of course, but it isn't what I would call "wild" speculation).  Keep in mind also, that there are some people who "run" in the "invisible primary" but never officially announce (or announce and then withdraw before a race) because they either "lose" the invisible primary or a path never opens for them.

Anyways, back to the topic, it's too early to tell with Warren.  I think she probably "wants it less" than someone like Booker, who wants it so badly that he's been awfully transparent about throwing his hat in the "invisible primary" ring.  But I think there's a good chance she'll run if she thinks she has a realistic path.

Maybe put her at a 50-50 or so right now.

[AN63093]

I think she probably "wants it less" than someone like Booker, who wants it so badly that he's been awfully transparent about throwing his hat in the "invisible primary" ring.  But I think there's a good chance she'll run if she thinks she has a realistic path.

I do wonder to what degree this will hurt Booker leading up to, or during, the primaries. It's one thing to be seen as ambitious, but going too far and being seen as power hungry and/or desperate doesn't sit well with voters.

I agree.  I understand needing to raise a national profile, name recognition, and so on, but he's already pretty well known and he keeps inching closer and closer to O'Malley territory.