I thought about writing that I think it will end 53-45-2 for Estes yesterday, but I was a bit worried because special elections are different. You have low turnout and the opposition party is usually much more enthusiastic and excited about flipping the seat than the defending party is. So I'm really pleased with the result and can only smile about the Dems thinking that this will tell anything about 2018.
The only county Thompson could win was Sedgwick (Wichita) and it was close there. Like always, the Dems got crushed so badly in the suburbs and the rural areas.
If you compare the result to the 2016 Presidential Elections and the 2014 Senatorial Elections, you see that Estes is underperforming Trump heavily in Sedgwick and mostly around 5-7 points in the rest of the District because it's a special election with an energized Dem base and a reluctant GOP base. Also you have to note that Thompson was a way better candidate than Hillary Clinton and the District only went 54-41 for Senator Roberts against Greg Orman - and I'm sure even smaller for Govenor Brownback who is very unpopular.
Nevertheless, he isn't underperforming Roberts anywhere except Sedgwick what is quite remarkable.
Barber: 76% to 83% for Trump (70% for Roberts in 2014)
Butler: 62% to 69% (60%)
Chautauqua: 81% to 83% (76%)
Comanche: 74% to 82% (71%)
Cowley: 56% to 66% (54%)
Edwards: 78% to 79% (70%)
Elk: 78% to 83% (63%)
Greenwood: 73% to 76% (64%)
Harper: 72% to 78% (67%)
Harvey: 53% to 59% (53%)
Kingman: 71% to 76% (65%)
Kiowa: 80% to 84% (77%)
Pawnee: 71% to 79% (71%)
Pratt: 64% to 74% (63%)
Sedgwick: 48% to 56% (51%)
Stafford: 72% to 79% (68%)
Sumner: 62% to 72% (58%)
https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/851758257064607746http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/KS_US_House_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICSWell, I'm satisfied. Given the early hopes (which got crushed so badly) of the Dems on Twitter a few hours ago and meltdown afterwards, the GOP Needs to throw everything into GA6, I want to have a lot more to laugh about ^^
