Who outperforms polls and by how much? (user search)
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  Who outperforms polls and by how much? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Who outperforms polls and by how much?  (Read 547 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,432
« on: April 30, 2023, 10:09:34 AM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on April 27, 2023, 11:12:34 PM
Biden will outperform vs. Trump. The 2020 polling error was largely caused by pandemic-era oversampling of stay-at-home voters and they are now oversampling Trump votes.

It’s close to a wash with DeSantis. A lot of conservative never-Trump Republicans will come home to DeSantis but the moderates probably break towards Biden.

A Haley/Youngkin type probably outperforms polls though like Youngkin did in 2021.

Youngkin did not overperform his polls.
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