Why were people writing Fetterman off so bluntly near the end? (user search)
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  Why were people writing Fetterman off so bluntly near the end? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why were people writing Fetterman off so bluntly near the end?  (Read 2337 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,428


« on: November 27, 2022, 11:59:26 PM »

I can’t speak for others but I was worried about Republicans doing better than their poll numbers again given it’s happened in this area of the country in every election since 2012 and it was an open race in a Trump/Biden state.

Yeah, I think the long, well-documented history of polling misses in the Midwest and the “red wave” narrative being pushed the last two weeks caused me to go against my priors (originally having Dems as favorites in the Senate due to the extreme candidate quality differences)

Pennsylvania is not in the Midwest.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,428


« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2022, 12:18:35 AM »

I don’t think anyone was actually writing Fetterman off, so you’re mostly just making up things here. There’s a difference between predicting a Republican will win a Toss-up race (which even I rated it in my final prediction) and outright rating a race Safe or even Likely R.

I pointed out repeatedly that Oz was far less likely to benefit from a late R surge among undecideds or to consolidate the undecided vote than a generic R due to his striking unfavorability numbers and his remarkable (and atypical) baggage as a candidate. While I thought a red wave environment would be enough for him to eke out a win, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted an Oz win if I had known that we were headed for the biggest D midterm overperformance since 1934.

Your gotchas are getting a little tiresome, honestly.

This is straight up false, actually.  You may not have been writing him off, but I can recall many posts where people were.
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