CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[South Dakota Democrat]

Newsom will be making a statement right when the polls close.

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1437967394295586821?s=20

Sometime after the polls close isn't necessarily right after the polls close.

[South Dakota Democrat]

NO AT 76% IN LOS ANGELES

CALL IT YOU COWARDS

Relax.  Why does it matter when the media calls it, anyway?  Them calling it or not calling it doesn't mean we don't know where it's headed.  The media projections really don't mean much, at the end of the day.

I understand the sentiment, though.

[South Dakota Democrat]

NO AT 76% IN LOS ANGELES

CALL IT YOU COWARDS

Relax.  Why does it matter when the media calls it, anyway?  Them calling it or not calling it doesn't mean we don't know where it's headed.  The media projections really don't mean much, at the end of the day.

I understand the sentiment, though.

Because the press should tell the truth. And the truth is that Newsome has won. By pretending that this race cannot be called yet, they are lying to us.

I mean, not really.  I'm watching CBS, which says it's leaning no, CNN and NBC said no is in the lead.  They aren't acknowledging there's a chance that yes will prevail - it's just a matter of being 99% certain (which will come when more votes come in) so you can make a projection.

Edit:  It's also really silly to say the media is "lying" to us.  They may be acting overly cautious, but lying is a stretch.  Really over the top post, quite silly of you to say.

[South Dakota Democrat]

We learned something here.  Running against Trump is the way to go in the blue states.

Now time for McAuliffe to do the same in VA and tie Youngkin to Trump for an easy win.

Big difference: VA will not be mailing ballots

Or maybe a more logical/less stupid argument would be that VA is substantially less blue than CA.

[South Dakota Democrat]

CBS calls it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

How long til the GOP rants about voter fraud?

Yesterday.

This is literally true, yes, Elder was already crying about voter fraud before today's vote.

[South Dakota Democrat]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

[South Dakota Democrat]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

No.

[South Dakota Democrat]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

They were clearly premature in making that call, though.  Even though the end result ended up being right, there is absolutely no way that they expected it to be a 10,000 vote margin.  Their decision desk head even said that they were calling it because they expected Trump to get only 44% of the remaining vote (and Biden was already leading at that time by around 8 points, so they expected Biden's lead of 8 points to increase).

They expected the lead to increase but the point was that Trump gaining enough to overcome Biden's lead was outside of the 99.5% confidence interval. Trump gaining was not.

Maybe, but their benchmark was clearly flawed so the 99.5% threshold was irrelevant in this case.  They didn't account for the fact that the remaining mail/early votes were late-arriving and were thus more similar to election day than to the rest of the early vote.