Is Virginia now a Safe Democratic state? (user search)
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  Is Virginia now a Safe Democratic state? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Virginia now a Safe Democratic state?  (Read 1684 times)
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,473


« on: November 12, 2018, 02:44:47 AM »

If it wasn't clear enough after 2016, it should be very clear now that under normal conditions, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia are gone for Republicans. Trump's best hope in 2020 is holding on to at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

You're right. It's amazing that those states in your first list haven't gone Republican since 2004, and with the way they are trending, they won't for a long time to come. And I think it will be very difficult for Trump to win Pennsylvania in 2020, given that both Casey and Wolf won by double digits, and that Democrats made House gains there. The Philadelphia suburbs, I believe, will cancel out the rural and working-class counties Trump relied upon last time, if the Democratic nominee of 2020 can replicate this year's performance in them.

Didn't Nevada actually trend republican twice?

In 2012 and 2016, I believe. Obama went from winning the state by 13 points in 2008 to winning it by 6 in 2012, and Clinton won by only 2 in 2016. However, that trend seems to have reversed, as Rosen defeated Heller by 5 this year, and Sisolak won by 4.

But the generic ballot was D+7. Im definetely not gonna believe NEvada polls anymore but I don't think Nevada is at Virginia or Colorado levels of Safeness yet although its close.

No, it is not. Nevada and Colorado are both Lean to Likely Democratic, in my opinion. But I think that by about 2024 or so, both will be falling into the Safe Democratic category, if current trends continue.

He didn't mean Nevada is close.  He meant it's close to being as safe as Colorado or Virginia.
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