Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 211658 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2018, 08:24:09 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2018, 08:22:38 PM
Quote from: henster on November 08, 2018, 08:19:53 PM
I keep hearing the next Maricopa batch should favor McSally is this true? Did Dems do bad there on election day?

Favor as in she won't get creamed by 15 points like she did in today's batch.
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« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2018, 08:58:32 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2018, 08:57:34 PM
Quote from: Thatkat04 on November 08, 2018, 08:56:49 PM
Quote from: henster on November 08, 2018, 08:51:45 PM
The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

How do we know its R+10?

R+10 in registration ID, which of course doesn't mean they necessarily voted that way.

Yeah, I think McSally wins it but Sinema keeps the lead since she won a sizable chunk of the Republican vote.
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« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2018, 09:10:58 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 08, 2018, 09:06:08 PM
This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.



So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done.
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« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2018, 09:15:03 PM »
Quote from: FREIWAL on November 08, 2018, 09:13:36 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 08, 2018, 09:10:58 PM
Quote from: henster on November 08, 2018, 09:06:08 PM
This is from the Sinema campaign. Three more batches one is expected to be good for McSally.



So pretty much Senator-elect Sinema is going to happen. If McSally can only get one of those batches to favor her, she's done.

It’s actually only two more batches. This conversation is from yesterday, today’s drop was one.

Okay so we have this one favoring Sinema, the next one will be McSally and number three will be Sinema.
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« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2018, 09:27:27 PM »
Quote from: OneJ on November 08, 2018, 09:22:09 PM
What are Porter’s chances in CA-45 looking like?

She's almost certain to win. Walters's margin is dropping like a rock as the provisionals and absentees come in, and 538 has the race as LEAN D.
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« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2018, 02:37:38 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 02:35:40 PM




Yeah, they're probably going to project Sinema the winner tonight.
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« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2018, 02:38:42 PM »


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« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2018, 02:39:37 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 02:38:24 PM


None of this looks good for McSally.
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« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2018, 03:41:01 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 03:38:51 PM
Quote from: Pollster on November 09, 2018, 03:37:30 PM
Trump calling for a new election in Arizona?



He has no idea what he's talking about, but he's only making things worse and setting the groundwork for him to dispute his own election in 2020.

Plus he’s revealing that the RNC believes McSally isn’t going to win.
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« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2018, 04:07:35 PM »
538 moving Arizona to LEAN D

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« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2018, 04:14:38 PM »
Apache dropped. Sinema expands lead by 586-
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« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2018, 06:42:30 PM »
Quote from: CellarDoor on November 09, 2018, 06:30:36 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on November 09, 2018, 06:22:05 PM




Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update.  She got almost 60% of the votes.

And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0
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« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2018, 07:03:07 PM »
Senator-elect Sinema.
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« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2018, 08:22:33 PM »
Can someone explain why the networks haven't called NY-22 for Brindisi yet?
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« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2018, 09:29:23 PM »
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on November 09, 2018, 09:27:24 PM
Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else

Because they know they're going to lose.
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« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2018, 09:37:22 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 09, 2018, 09:31:32 PM
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on November 09, 2018, 09:27:24 PM
Republicans whipping themselves into a frenzy on Arizona on Fox and everywhere else

There is a report from Politico that Trump and the RNC are pissed with McSally and local Arizona Republicans for not being more aggressive.



The AZ GOP got curbstomped. It's not healthy for them to go full bat-sh**t insane in a state that is trending away from them.
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« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2018, 11:00:09 PM »
I think a lot of the seats that the Dems took are pretty much gone for the GOP, specifically the suburban seats like KS-03, CO-06, VA-10, etc. I also doubt the GOP will be able to unseat either Luria or Spanberger due to Virginia's continuous shift to the Democrats along with the suburbs.
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« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2018, 03:37:36 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:58:53 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on November 10, 2018, 02:53:55 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:51:48 PM


Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.
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« Reply #43 on: November 10, 2018, 03:54:59 PM »

So much for the most conservative generation in American history Tongue
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« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2018, 04:08:49 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 04:03:53 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 10, 2018, 04:02:28 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 03:58:54 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 10, 2018, 03:37:36 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:58:53 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on November 10, 2018, 02:53:55 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 02:51:48 PM


Slightly underrunning by McSally; not as badly as some other counties

Mohave is the most Republican county in Arizona.

It appears to have either exhausted all its votes or very close to it.

I really cannot see a path for McSally. The vast majority of the votes that are left are in Sinema's territory.

Coconino, Maricopa, Pima, and Pinal are the only 4 counties left with a significant number of outstanding ballots.

So it's over unless Pinal and especially the last batch of Maricopa are McSally blowouts.  And Maricopa should have one more Lean Sinema batch before then.

You got it.

I guess Wasserman should call it for Sinema once Pima and Maricopa come in today.
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« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2018, 05:35:56 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 10, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:28:10 PM
Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it cane from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Yup. Sinema is still ahead 18K
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« Reply #46 on: November 10, 2018, 05:51:47 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:50:07 PM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 10, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:28:10 PM
Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins
Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?


Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.
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« Reply #47 on: November 10, 2018, 06:15:10 PM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 10, 2018, 06:14:44 PM
I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

No one is shocked you think this.

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« Reply #48 on: November 10, 2018, 06:16:00 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:13:49 PM
Navajo made another drop apparently.



Another underperfomance by McSally.

Sinema +18,363
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« Reply #49 on: November 10, 2018, 06:31:19 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2018, 06:34:42 PM by Lou Barletta's Teeth »
Quote from: pppolitics on November 10, 2018, 06:28:53 PM


Sinema up 24K!!

She also just crossed 1mill in the count.
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