2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, I think this one could be a unexpectedly closer (but not close) race. Obviously safe D, but I think Cavasso could breach 40%, I have been following him and his campaign and this one interview was particularly good, he is really a solid recruit for the GOP, just the wrong year, in a slightly too blue district.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2018/10/11/coffee-with-candidate-republican-candidate-congress-cam-cavasso/

Wow was I wrong, Cam Cavasso did not even win a single neighborhood, and did significantly worse than the opponents of Ige and Hanabusa. Got beaten by over 50 points, and barely above 20% of the vote.

Wow, this district has really gone left since 2010, not that it was ever competitive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Marie Newman has filed for a rematch with Lipiniski-

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1089345569271803904

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NY-14: #WalkAway founder Brandon Straka to consider a challenge to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D). Straka voted for Hillary in 2016, but has since moved hard-right. He’ll run as a Republican most likely.

He reminds me of Peggy Hubbard (who's considering a run against Sen. Durbin in 2020) in many ways.

https://twitter.com/usminority/status/1093171522422886402

Can't wait to watch him lose by 65 points and then claim voter fraud!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Crisanta Duran announces primary challenge to Diana DeGette

Wha...?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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Jan McDowell (candidate for TX-24 in 2016 and 2018) is claiming that Kim Olson is considering running in TX-24. Idk how reliable this is, but rumors belong in the megathread, right?

Both are wonderful candidates and I'd be happy with either, although I prefer Olson.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP has the generic ballot at D 51, R 40: https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/PPP_Release_National_40119.pdf

Something tells me the House will be in Dem hands for a while.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://abc13.com/politics/combat-veteran-to-challenge-fletcher-for-congressional-seat/5229241/


Fletcher has republican african american challenger

John James 2.0.

So he's going to lose. That district is trending Democrat too fast for the Reps to win it back anytime soon.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/WinterForMT/status/1113089463415136257

He and Ammar will be the babes of Congress

Katie Hill and Conor Lamb have already taken this titles.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL all Casten has to do is tie her to Rauner and he's safe for reelection.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Katie Hill was harassed by a bunch of old white climate change deniers at her Townhall yesterday. Consider this a boost to her reelection campaign. Not to mention the harassed her for supporting the Equality Act.

Some army the GOP has lol.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/blue-wave-democrat-katie-hill-faces-angry-voters-at-california-town-hall.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL Katie Hill was harassed by a bunch of old white climate change deniers at her Townhall yesterday. Consider this a boost to her reelection campaign. Not to mention the harassed her for supporting the Equality Act.

Some army the GOP has lol.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/blue-wave-democrat-katie-hill-faces-angry-voters-at-california-town-hall.html

Im pretty sure nobody cares.

Oh absolutely. I just think it's cute how old white Republicans think they're being hip harassing a young woman over science-backed climate change and LGBT rights.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Joey Salads, YouTube Star Famous for Racist Pranks, Launches Congressional Bid

LMAO the state of the GOP

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Joey Salads, YouTube Star Famous for Racist Pranks, Launches Congressional Bid

You can't even parody real life anymore.

Then again, I'd like to hope Rose would wipe the floor with him, so maybe his winning the primary would have a silver lining?

The question of whether Max Rose wins re-election in 2020 is going to be entirely decided by who Republicans pick in the primary it seems. All the candidates on the Republican side would be either guaranteed winners or guaranteed losers. Nothing in between.

Right. And this walking testosterone pill wants to lower the minimum wage. Rose could win more than 60% of the vote in the unlikely events this Joey Salads wins the GOP nod.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Joey Salads, YouTube Star Famous for Racist Pranks, Launches Congressional Bid

You can't even parody real life anymore.

Then again, I'd like to hope Rose would wipe the floor with him, so maybe his winning the primary would have a silver lining?

The question of whether Max Rose wins re-election in 2020 is going to be entirely decided by who Republicans pick in the primary it seems. All the candidates on the Republican side would be either guaranteed winners or guaranteed losers. Nothing in between.

Rose would beat anyone currently running

I have my concerns with Malliotakis, but I agree he's underrated. Staten Island could easily be a part of the great suburban shift to the Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nancy Mace doesn't really strike me as an insurgent. She seems calmer than Arrington, friendlier to gay rights, and she was that legislator that was getting hate from her own party for criticizing the abortion bills banning exceptions for rape and incest.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Finally the GOP is getting serious, instead of piddle paddling around in places like CA 25 and MN 2

https://twitter.com/KyleTrygstad/status/1139132345959759872

Safe D —-> Safe D

Yep. Bartletta lost the district to Casey, and Cartwright, who’s a very strong incumbent, will certainly hammer him for carpetbagging.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

do we have a consensus on how much Ds will need to win the house PV by to keep control of the lower chamber?

My guess: +7 will, probably, be enough...

WHAT? F*** no.

The GOP won the PV for the House in 2016 by a point and they still lost 6 seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats have a 9-point lead in enthusiasm for 2020 according to the new AP poll.

79-70%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

RRH with updates Senate ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/06/29/rrh-elections-june-2019-senate-rankings/

They're surprisingly not bad, with the exception of Colorado. I expected them to rate Michigan as a tossup and Alabama as likely R.

New Mexico should be Safe D. The Republicans don't have a bench and it would take a massive scandal to derail BRL.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MI-11: Rep. Haley Stevens (D) raised $725k (!) in Q2 and has over $1M in cash-on-hand

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1145792585103003648

Likely D

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kim Olson (TX-24) raised $300K according to her social media.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I have a feeling the Arizona senate race might not end up as close as everyone is expecting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McSally only raised $1.8 million

https://twitter.com/MikePNoble/status/1146221750721531905

Uh oh...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, Ashley Hinson used an outdated Cook PVI map. My guess is it's from the early stages of the 2018 midterms.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov has the Dems leading the 2020 GCB by 9 points-

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1149135341170900994?s=21