2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CMR going down would be poetic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kyrsten Sinema raised 2.5M in Q1 and has 6.7 M cash on hand: https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/982357146644963329

I doubt any of the Republicans are even close to a quarter of that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Republican challenger Lou Barletta continues to struggle as he pulls in only $1.26 million in the first three months of 2018. Senator Bob Casey has raised double that, and has over $10 million in the bank.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I think it's time Comstock called it quits.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Montana fundraising report confirms my thinking that MT will be the first of the Romney/Trump Senate seats with a Democratic Senator to fall off the board.

Clearly, you didn't look at the reports.

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If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Wow.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow more fundarsing this time on OH-01:
Aftab Pureval (D): 663,000
Steve Chabot (R-inc): 172,000

Wow.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/988392085777731586

Damn.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why is Bagel in denial over OH12? PA18 and AZ08 are twice as republican as that district and we know what happened in those races.

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CA-48: Democrat Rachel Payne drops out to lower the likelihood of an R-vs-R runoff.  It's too late for her name to come off the ballot, but she will no longer actively campaign.  Source

Dang... it should've been somebody else. We need more people like her in congress.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/992475673229918208

Getting closer to flipping the house!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/994060696668327936

SAD!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They still haven't moved Tennessee to tossup?

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Big boost for Republicans -->

https://twitter.com/politico/status/994584961679228934

Lol the Republicans spent half of that amount on PA18 and AZ08

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How many "RED WAVE IS DOOMED!!" headlines did we get in 2010?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I don’t know what Morris is thinking. He has Conor Lamb with only a 30% chance of winning.

His district by district model is basically PVI/2016 results + ballot with a incumbency and scandal factor. It was reallllllllly obvious earlier, and it still is - MN07 reflects this nicely. The only important part of that model is the number on the tin.

There were multiple times when he manually changed the rating of one race due to something happening. Ex: NC-09 and Pittenger's loss.

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Wow.

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https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/999373426795204630

Scandal watch!

Any good dem recruit in this district?

Nah the dems did a convention and proceeded to nominate someone with skeletons. That said, if the seat becomes open, I suspect that nominee gets dropped like a rock in favor of Perrellio.

They won’t do that, lol. The Democrats already held their caucuses and nominated their candidate, they could ask her to step aside, but she won’t.

I agree that Cockburn wouldn't drop out; she's an anti-Semitic bigot, so clearly rationale thought isn't her strong suite.

Is she really anti-semitic, or just critical of Israel?

I'm genuinely curious.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GEM updated:

Dems at a 57% chance of winning the house. Has GOP flipping MN01, Hurd with only a 13% chance of winning reelection.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thecrosstab.com%2F2018-midterms-forecast%2F

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Cocaine Devin

On Wednesday, a report in the Fresno Bee linked Nunes to a winery that allegedly held a wild cocaine-and-prostitutes evening yacht cruise — a winery where the congressman is a part-owner.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/25/devin-nunes-russia-probe-fundraising-609492

Oh man, Nunes going down in a drug scandal would be poetic to 2018.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Pretty good, a little too optimistic for the GOP in Tennessee.