2018 Senate Rankings

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

Arizona moves from Leaning Dem to Likely Dem based on Flake retiring.  Alabama moves from Solid Rep to Likely Rep based on Roy Moore saying "Obergefell vs. Hodges was even worse than Dred Scott vs. Stanford".  No other rating changes.

After the Fox news poll that was released today, I'm growing more confident that this will be the map. Switch the colors of West Virginia and Missouri. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MN-Special is Leans D.

This. Although I would put MN-Special as Likely D. There is no way Smith would lose while Klobuchar would curb-stomp her republican opponent.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I agree with MT here... only part I would change is WV to lean D status.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why is Missouri safer than AZ, ND, MT, IN, and WV?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Missouri

6. Florida
7. North Dakota
8. Montana

Changes:

AZ: Lean D -> Likely D
AZ-08 results, new polling, and continued underwhelmingness of McSally has caused me to grow more confident about this race.

MO: Tossup -> Tilt D
I normally don't like to use the tilt category, but I feel like it best describes my feelings here. I fully expect this race to be close, but the systematic own goal by the MO GOP has caused me to find McCaskill favored to pull it out.

MS-Special: Lean R -> Likely R
It looks like the McDaniel-Espy runoff is unlikely, and I think Hyde-Smith is heavily favored if she advances.

Agreed. MAYBE Tennessee before Indiana, though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No tossups!

Wisconsin and Ohio are Likely because the GOP challengers aren't looking strong, Montana is on the border of Likely there.

Indiana is probably the closest state here, Braun has the slightest advantage here but pretty much anything could change that.

Tennessee is an underrated prospect, I think Bredesen has a better than 50% chance at the moment.

I'll probably go with this. Donnelly is actually the only Democrat I can see losing at this point. Hawley is too sh**tty of a candidate to beat McCaskill in Missouri, Tester is a unit, and Heitkamp is doing a good job of cozying up to Trump.

If the Dems could lose Illinois in 2010, the GOP can lose Tennessee in 2018.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No tossups!

Wisconsin and Ohio are Likely because the GOP challengers aren't looking strong, Montana is on the border of Likely there.

Indiana is probably the closest state here, Braun has the slightest advantage here but pretty much anything could change that.

Tennessee is an underrated prospect, I think Bredesen has a better than 50% chance at the moment.

I'll probably go with this. Donnelly is actually the only Democrat I can see losing at this point. Hawley is too sh**tty of a candidate to beat McCaskill in Missouri, Tester is a unit, and Heitkamp is doing a good job of cozying up to Trump.

If the Dems could lose Illinois in 2010, the GOP can lose Tennessee in 2018.

Tennessee is a whole lot redder than Illinois was blue in 2010 and doesn't have a corrupt banker running on the GOP ticket in an election where everyone is mad about the bank bailouts and the Republican governor just got hauled off to prison.

We have  stronger/weaker Dem/Rep candidates in 2018 than we did in Illinois 2010. My ruling stands.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No need to unignore Limo for his predictions.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
7/10/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special
TX (Likely R >> Safe R) Polling looks great for Cruz.

Likely R:
ND (Lean R >> Likely R) Heitkamp's standing looks disastrous in recent polling.
TN (Lean R >> Likely R) Trump's incredible appeal in this state will overcome Bredesen's.

Lean R:
MO
IN
FL (Tilt R >> Lean R) Nelson is getting hammered in ads while Scott continues his record fundraising and campaigning. Scott's strength with Latinos is further cementing this flip.

Tilt R:
MT
NV (Tossup >> Tilt R) Rosen keeps burning money on ads but can't seem to raise her recognition in the state as disastrous details about her business experience come to light.

Tossup:
AZ
WV

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
OH
NJ

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA
MN-Special (Lean D >> Likely D) National Rs don't seem to be making a play here, and MN is not a Trump state.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 55 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 2 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

I am a tad more omptimistic than this, but I agree with this more than almost all the other predictions on here, job well done.

L-O-L