US with French parties

[big bad fab]

Of course, there isn't a question of "souverainisme" in the US, but don't you think some rural areas would be a welcoming ground for MPF ?

That's just because I've just read your post on ND.

In fact, my question is more about NE, KS, inner Missouri, and also about Iowa, but SD and ND (and some Rocky states) might also qualify for a "defensive" farmer vote (against cuts in subsidies, e.g.).

BTW, very happy to see this restarted

PCF would be very resilient in Minnesota, I think.
And in Minnesota and some quarters of Wisconsin (and Michigan and Ohio), Mélenchon would be high but I know your topic is a 2007 one).

[big bad fab]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

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You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

The silver standard (which Bryan advocated) would be extremely unpopular after 1900.

Yeah, but by looking to the election maps it seems that Dakotas definitively abandoned populism in the 1940s.

The silver standard is irrelevant. The Dakotas support farm subsidies and federal government funds for agriculture. They're not neoliberals.

That's the big point I think.
And, of course, I agree with Hash on Dakotas and on (relative) strength of MPF and DLR, through protest vote.

On another point, when I said Frêche socialism for some parts of Kentucky or Appalachia, I'm happy, today, after Murtha's death and Frêche's new star status, to imagine Frêche as a populist Dem in some lost part of those states...

Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska will be very fine to read too Maybe some surprises...
I repeat it all the time, but this is really a very good idea, and very well managed.

[big bad fab]

The syndicalism doesn't quite fit, but I'm thinking the most plausible location for Bové is Vermont or western Mass, where you get left-wing politics mixed in with a love of pre-industrial farming.

Vermont would work best, since it's more mountainous, but the hippie-green aspect of Vermont isn't really like the Larzac, but then, it's hard to find a syndicalist mountainous anti-globalization locale in the US, but then it doesn't matter since Bove is only 1% in France and likely much less in the US.

What about fishers in Louisiana ?
Couldn't Bové make some good results here ?
Of course, this is not mountainous, but, still...

[big bad fab]

One thing which is kind of interesting is if the French politicians are transported as well... and where they'd fit in.

Basically my (awfully wrong, most likely) hunches are:

Sarkozy (Neuilly) > those awfully wealthy places in NJ with NYC commuters (NYC would probably be like Paris, with wealthy rightie exurbia and inner Red Belt suburbia in NJ and parts of Long Island). I don't think NoVA would fit in well with Neuilly, not enough old established bouregois wealth
Royal (ruralish areas south of Niort, some old leftie strength) > ?
Bayrou (moutains of Bearn east of Pau) > Aroostook County or Coos County(?)
Le Pen (wherever he can win) > FN strongholds with Cuban voters in Miami, obviously
Besancenot (Paris) > inner New York City or somewhere, and postman in those obnoxiously wealthy places in CT. Obviously the NPA would be an even *bigger* joke in the US than in France
Buffet (Red Belt, PCF machine bases) > Newark or other undesirable NJ places
Voynet (Montreuil) > Bergen County, NJ (?) or Red Beltish areas in NJ
Bové (Aveyron, Millau) > I have a really hard time figuring out where some rural syndicalist type like Asterix would fit in.
Aubry (Lille) > Some place like Boston, MA or Lowell, MA
Gaudin (Marseille) > Miami
Freche (Montpellier) > I can't think right now of any places in the US which are seaside resorts full of fascists, old people who hate browns and idiots. He would, however, fit right in the quasi-entirety of the Deep South and Appalachia
Delanoë (Paris) > One would assume NYC is the new Paris, and Chirac could have been mayor of NYC before (though it would be harder for him to win in NYC than in Paris)
Méhaignerie (Vitré) > Rural Catholic areas in New England, Méhaignerie sure ain't no Cajun
Fabius (industrial Rouennais suburbs) > The damn Potomac has no industrial areas on its shoreline, does it?
Cohn-Bendit (wherever he feels like setting up camp) > as Fab said early on, Canadian-American citizen living in Vermont or le Plateau/NDG in Montreal

It's harder to think of places for Fillon, Hamon (he'd probably fit in with some corrupt PS machine somewhere), Duflot

and ahem,
Besson > Oklahoma or Idaho panhandle (sorry, cheap shot, couldn't resist)

Royal > in some far-away suburbs of the Triangle in NC ?
Just a try...

Fillon > somewhere in rural Minnesota, not far away from Minneapolis-St Paul (odd to compare it with Le Mans, I know )

Hamon hasn't even a base in France, so, in the US...

And Bové, I've already proposed fishing towns in Louisiana...

[big bad fab]

I love your Missouri (especially the Rhineland and the Ozarks, for different reasons ).

NE and KS are without surprise.

The North-West, including Idaho and Alaska, will be fascinating.

And, as for your 1995 map, what about OK ?
I'm not sure at all Jospin would have won it. Mitterrand 1988 would have been the last one, I think.

[big bad fab]

What about fishers in Louisiana ?
Couldn't Bové make some good results here ?
Of course, this is not mountainous, but, still...

Seeing those types on Thalassa on Sunday: certainly not. They don't seem at all like green-antiglobalization type, and if they are of the latter stock, they'd vote FN or MPF.

And, as for your 1995 map, what about OK ?
I'm not sure at all Jospin would have won it. Mitterrand 1988 would have been the last one, I think.

Chirac did not have the same appeal to the type of poor white working-class voters that Sarkozy had (and which would have ultimately carried him over the top in 2007). While 1995 would be quite close, Jospin would've won it, like he won Meurthe-et-Moselle (though there is obviously no comparison between the two)

You're right on both things.
Even though I think Bové isn't really deeply green... but that's another debate

Might Bové be more at ease in Puerto Rico ?
I just try again !

[big bad fab]

Why not NM ?

I really agree with your note on Radicals in those otl GOP bastions.

In TX, I'm trying to see if a local PS leader would fit and probably Delebarre would be fine: populist, productivist, from a polluted city...

[big bad fab]

Mormons in the UMP seems good: after all, Boutin and the PCD are still inside the UMP .
I guess that would "perfectly" fit with the differences between MPF and PCD in RL.


And I like your Radical Montana, imagining Herriot or Queuille in these landscapes .

BTW, wouldn't Clemenceau have been at ease in Montana ?

Maybe even JJSS would have tried to make it its political base !


Eager to see if there will be a difference between north and south of Pacific Coast.
And if there will be surprises in Nevada vs California (the other way round between red & blue ?).
After all, this is 2007...

[big bad fab]

For the remaining States, I'm guessing socialists would win OR, WA and HI, Sarkozy would carry AZ in a landslide, NV easily and CA narrowly. AK is a mistery for me.

Yep, but... not so sure for NV .

AK is safe for Sarkozy. Maybe a sort of rural Jura, or even rural Savoie, with ski boon playing th role of oil .

[big bad fab]

Arizona
I'd think the UMP is too moderate for them and they probably wouldn't like UMPers like Georges Fenech

YEAH !!


And great map on the FN: each time you look at a state because you think it's not entirely accurate, you think a bit and find it's OK in fact.

A map very vaguely reminiscent of Hillary's primaries map .

AK and NV will be very interesting for the FN.

[big bad fab]

The Greens' map:



I'm generally happy with it, except maybe the west which is a bit tougher to do.

VA a bit stronger ? and even NC ?
Washington suburbs, Triangle,... of course, it's vs rural and coastal zones not really "greens"...
You're probably right in the end.

As for, CA, OR, WA, strong or even very strong !

[big bad fab]

NV over the average for Sarkozy in 2007, I tend to disagree. Difficult to see Royal win here, sure, but its crazy side would have done well there .


NY, CT and Maryland for Chirac over Jospin in 1995 and OK (and KY) for Jospin !
Wow, it's a daring map...
There was a smell of rebellion in Chirac's vote that could have switched these states I think, even if I'm not entirely affirmative.

[big bad fab]

It's always easy to put forward ideas but never do anything...
But I'm afraid to do really STUPID things... That's why I just put forward an interesting idea:

Tixier-Vignancour strength map in the US

Florida would be very strong for him. But, otherwise, which South would vote for Tixier ?
And would he have been able to grasp Ron Paul's fans ?
Probably more Southern and Rocky than FN's one.

And what about a Poujade strength map ?
MidEast and MidWest, Northern Rocky Mountains ?

[big bad fab]

Very interesting one. I'd agree that Sarkozy would have barely won the state in 2007, even though by a close margin (which would make NM a perfect swing state).

actually, it would be less Socialist than it is Democratic irl (at least since 1960) because of the political affiliation of the Spanish vote. Giscard, por ejemplo, would have won it in 1981 (though Mitterrand would presumably have won it rather easily in 1988) and Chirac would have won it in 1995.

Indeed, you're right. Though considering the State's trends and Sarkozy's lack of appeal there, I think he could have performed less well there than nationwide.

Re-read my last line(s). I can agree with you that he'd have performed less well there within certain demographics than is usual for the New Mexican Right, but at the same time I can point out demographics in NM where he'd have performed better than is usual. It's a really tricky thing, but, on the whole, I agree with you that, given the weight of Spanish Hispanics in the electorate (and the fact that Sarkozy would underperform there), the state would be trending to the left.

Did that make any sense? No. Sorry, I have like 600 other things in my head right now.

Rethinking about NM, in the past, the Alduy family would have been perfect in the NE and the NW of this State: what do you think Hash ?