2008: Barack Obama (D) vs. Mitt Romney (R)

[big bad fab]

317 - 221

Mitt would have been a bit stronger in MidWestern states.
He would have kept IN and NC but would have lost WV.
He would have been weaker in the South but not enough for Obama to grasp GA.
He would have kept CO and FL, due to better campaigning and more money.
He would have lost the Latino vote more heavily and, so, would have lost AZ.