Will Huckabee or Romney win any more states? And when will they drop out?

[big bad fab]

Feb 9th:
Kansas Caucus: Romney? He seems to do well in caucus states and western states...
Louisiana: Huckabee

Feb 12th:
DC: No clue.
Maryland: McCain?
Virginia: McCain

Feb 19th:
Washington: McCain
Wisconsin: McCain

Feb 24th:
Puerto Rico Caucus: McCain?

March 4th:
Ohio: McCain
Rhode Island: McCain
Vermont: McCain
Texas: McCain

So, he either wins in the days after the Potomac Primary or Mini-Super Tuesday.

I agree, except that
- Huck will win Kansas ("modest" Rep from the plains, as in Iowa and rural Missouri; not a state like Wyoming, Montana or of course Colorado)
- McCain will pick Maryland and DC
- but Romney can still win in Rhode Island (look at the map of Massachusets and you will guess why McCain has won in Connecticut and why he'll lose R.I.).

So Romney will drop out (if he hasn't done that tomorrow....) after having been defeated in Virginia or after defeated in Texas.

Huckabee will wait after Mississipi (March 10th) or will go on until the end without campaigning just in order to be in force ahead of the convention.

[big bad fab]

I agree.
Huck gathers social conservatives.
Romney only succeeded in gathering business and fiscal conservatives.
McCain gathered military conservatives.
But nobody gathered arch-conservatives.... Gingrich would have done it, maybe.

So, let's forget about those guys.

Now, I'm wondering when the Huck will drop out.
Does he just want to have more delegates than Romney ? (remember Romney has only suspended his campaign: he keeps all his already gained delegates ahead of the convention)

If he stays too long in the race, without gathering all the conservatives (and he can't gather business and fiscal conservatives), he can harm himself by being sidelined or by becoming more extreme.

So, either he'll drop out after a defeat in Virginia (which would mean he's irrelevant); or he'll wait until Mississipi, with the hope of a win or a tie in Texas, and wins in Louisiana, Kansas, Mississipi and maybe Wisconsin.

But that's risky, since he's not sure to pick many delegates (only Virginia, Vermont and DC are winner-take-all. So, Virginia is key for him.