France General Discussion

[big bad fab]

Bayrou is now a left-winger (cue shock) after crying outloud 2007-2009 about how he's a real centrist, how he rejects left and right, and how only the centre is good.

"Il y a deux camps. Il y a le camp de ceux qui signent pour que le régime actuel dure dix ans (2007-2017). Et il y a le camp de ceux qui choisissent une alternance pour une société plus juste". - aka "There are two sides. There is the side of those who wish that the actual regime lasts ten years. And there is the side of those of choose an alternative for a more just society"

Of course, since he isn't very smart, he continues denying he's a left-winger, instead saying that he's just a 'progressive centrist'. Because, face it, dumbo, the name of two sides are right (those who wish that the actual regime lasts ten years) and the LEFT, yes, the LEFT, la sinistra ('alternative for a more just society', aka the Izquierda).

If you want my opinion, this is the equivalent of Bayrou shooting himself in the foot. Firstly, I think a good number of MoDem members joined the party because they were 'real' centrists. If they were centre-left social democrats, then they could have joined the PS, or if they don't like them, the Greenies or the Radicals. Secondly, most if not all MoDem mayors elected in 2008 did so with the support of the UMP. Bruno Joncour in Saint-Brieuc, since it's my neck of the woods, comes to mind quickly. I'm sure the situation in Arras and I think it was Mont-de-Marsan is the same. Those chaps find themselves in a tough spot, since I don't think Bousquet in Saint-Brieuc will be exactly pleased to become an ally of Joncour municipally if the MoDem's local elected officials follow the way of Mr. Flip Flops. The MoDem might now become a party similar to the PCF or Greenies, some electoral independence vis-a-vis of the PS in the first rounds (and Euros) but joining a Gauche plurielle movement in the runoffs.

Of course, this also has an important effect on the PS, and potentially re-opens the debate between the PS' so called social-liberal wing and its left-wing.

If my first point that the MoDem's members were hard-line centrists, this could potentially open a realm of possibilities for parties that continue to claim centrism, in a way or another. This could help the NC, which has recently taken up the strategy of saying that they're the only real centrists, but I'm not sure if many 'extreme centrists' will be interested by a 'party of deputies' which is the centrist component of the majority. Could it help Jean Arthuis' little AC, whose stated goal is to re-create the UDF in a way or another, with a potential enlargement to the PRG or PRV?

What would be interesting:

to know if Bayrou is the only one behind these steps towards the left, because he has understood his personal climb to presidential power is doomed,

or if Sarnez, Artigues and Azière (i.e. the former "real" centrists that starve for power...) managed to bring Bayrou in this trend, just to be sure that, during a DSK presidency, they will get some portfolios of "ministre déléguée" and "secrétaires d'Etat",

or if Bayrou has, in fact, NO intention to become a PS ally and is just pretending to come closer to the left, because the PS seemed to be re-united in La Rochelle and because the MoDem was beaten by the Greens in the European elections
and, so, he needs to "help" divide the PS again and to be sure he isn't sidelined by the Greens as the main potential ally to win in 2012.

If this is the last option, so, Bayrou is really doomed . And the UMP can be confident.
If this is the second option, err.... Bayrou is doomed too . But the PS can be confident.
If this is the first option, well... it can't be the first option... or it's not Bayrou any more !

[big bad fab]

"devout Catholic Bayrou"...
Sorry to disagree, Hash
He says so, but many of his social and value behaviours and ideas are really contrarian to Catholicism.
In fact, it's worse from him than from Mélenchon or Morano...
Bayrou is able to betray DEEPLY what he tries to make the Catholics believe.

Another minus on a long list...

Really, among the 4 "mad-list" (Royal, Villepin, Bayrou, Sarko), my final is definitely Bayrou-Villepin. Royal is really better than them.
At least, her ambition is straight and her stupidness is a smiling one...

[big bad fab]

"devout Catholic Bayrou"...
Sorry to disagree, Hash
He says so, but many of his social and value behaviours and ideas are really contrarian to Catholicism.
In fact, it's worse from him than from Mélenchon or Morano...
Bayrou is able to betray DEEPLY what he tries to make the Catholics believe.

I wasn't referring to his ideological standings today, obviously. The guy goes to church every Sunday, he ain't an atheist in practice.

You're right: sociologically, he's a devout Catholic.
But he's what we call "une grenouille de bénitier"...

[big bad fab]

"devout Catholic Bayrou"...
Sorry to disagree, Hash
He says so, but many of his social and value behaviours and ideas are really contrarian to Catholicism.
In fact, it's worse from him than from Mélenchon or Morano...
Bayrou is able to betray DEEPLY what he tries to make the Catholics believe.

I wasn't referring to his ideological standings today, obviously. The guy goes to church every Sunday, he ain't an atheist in practice.

You're right: sociologically, he's a devout Catholic.
But he's what we call "une grenouille de bénitier"...

Bayrou can be criticized on a lot of realms, and I've done it, speedy and unfair judgments, which is how I see it, are useless...

I don't want to spend time and, what is more, to bother forumers with religious matters (as it's not very trendy here ), by studying each one of his positions, but I can assure you that Bayrou does not AT ALL abide by Catholic principles in his public life....
Politically and "sociologically", it may be unfair, if you want.
But theologically, it's not unfair.

And don't think I'm trying to make an ad for Boutin or Villiers, as the latter isn't coherent with Catholicism either (in another way, of course...) and as Boutin isn't any longer a significant force in French politics (she's over, all the more that she won't be deputy again).

And if Bayrou says he's laïc, so he must NOT refer to his so-called Catholicism AT ALL.
(and, granted, Royal should stop to take Jesus' sentences...)

[big bad fab]

I still support Sarkozy until the end of Clearstream, as Villepin is far worse.

But, after that, well, Juppé, Copé, Borloo or anybody else than Sarkozy for president...

This designation, plus territorial reform, plus some family reforms, that's really too much.
Man never changes... Sigh.

[big bad fab]

Sarkozy's only chance for re-election is if the Socialists nominate another twit, or if the left is hopelessly divided in a way that prevents reconciliation. In other words, Sarkozy's electoral chances in 2012 are not so dire.

You know that I second that.

[big bad fab]

Funny, I was about to post it Thanks, Hash

The quotation is actual (again, it's from this fantastic book by ugly Peyrefitte: "C'était de Gaulle").

But beware of the context, please...:
De Gaulle said that to explain, in private, that Algeria can't become 100% French, because the demographic majority would rather quickly change... This was a way to refuse colonialists and Pieds-Noirs' ideas for extending "la métropole" to include Algeria.

What is really funny in this campaign by the FNJ is that Le Pen and a big part of the FN were politically born in the "Algérie française" movement...

That's another sign that we are entering an era of "post-politics": nobody has any historical culture any longer on the political scene... Everything is short mottos, televised fights, "petites phrases", emotions, etc.
Panzergirl Marine Le Pen will fit well the whole bunch of Royal, Sarkozy, Villepin, Bayrou, Bové, Besancenot, Raffarin,...

[big bad fab]

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/01/01002-20091201ARTFIG00480-nouvelle-querelle-centriste-autour-du-sigle-de-l-udf-.php

I'm eager to see a big judicial fight between NC and Bayrou !
Bayrou is a chewing-gum:
1) you can't get rid of him, even if he has become without any taste
2) he remains small through the time, whil getting many, many, many different shapes
3) he is able to extend from one point to another very far away point.

I hope NC will fight until the end, because this is how politics work !

And please don't be ironic on this, because it relates to real political issues. (yes!)

[big bad fab]

The UDF is the 'son' of the MRP and the French Christian democratic-liberal tradition, a tradition which is clearly noy represented by the MoDem.

Yes, but the UDF is dead. Now it is Modem and NC. New stuffs.

Just read the article: UDF is a brand and NC wants it (and, as Hash has said, is ideologically right to claim it).
It's really like agro-business.

[big bad fab]

If anybody is interested:

An IFOP analysis of the political orientation of farmers:

http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/82-1-document_file.pdf

Thank you, Hash. Really interesting (provided it's statistically relevant...).

- Well, to connect with the previous debate, the farmers are perhaps the last category to be "abused" by Bayrou (because he hints from time to time to Catholicism -OMG....- and to his dear deep Béarn ?).
They still vote for the MoDem as if it was the UDF.

BTW, the main victory for Bayrou was when he won over Bosson in 1994. Then the UDF was clean for him, as Méhaignerie and Barrot were too old, in a way (at least, they have already served too much and were out of date).
Bayrou is here because, inside the UDF-CDS, there wasn't anybody to stop him during these years.

- Back to farmers: Sarkozy's vote even greater among the Confédération rurale than among the FNSEA is a bit surprising. But, samples may be small...

- What is the most surprising is the results by activity: You would have thought that big cereal producers and wine producers would have voted for Sarkozy en masse. But, on the contrary, it's milk producers and fruits-vegetables producers....
Again, samples may be small, but still.

[big bad fab]

If anybody is interested:

An IFOP analysis of the political orientation of farmers:

http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/82-1-document_file.pdf

Thank you, Hash. Really interesting (provided it's statistically relevant...).

- Well, to connect with the previous debate, the farmers are perhaps the last category to be "abused" by Bayrou (because he hints from time to time to Catholicism -OMG....- and to his dear deep Béarn ?).
They still vote for the MoDem as if it was the UDF.

BTW, the main victory for Bayrou was when he won over Bosson in 1994. Then the UDF was clean for him, as Méhaignerie and Barrot were too old, in a way (at least, they have already served too much and were out of date).
Bayrou is here because, inside the UDF-CDS, there wasn't anybody to stop him during these years.

Would come to show that this 'family' 'tradition' hadn't much more liveliness...

I just wanted to say that there wasn't a political bigwig in the centre-centre-right since, well,... Giscard.
Not that it's no longer a real political tradition still alive.
But Lecanuet was dead, Veil was old, Barrot, Méhaignerie, Stasi, Stoléru, Douste-Blazy weren't really charismatic, Bosson wasn't successful, Borloo is Borloo and has joined the UMP.

- Back to farmers: Sarkozy's vote even greater among the Confédération rurale than among the FNSEA is a bit surprising. But, samples may be small...

No, unless I mix myself with an other close name Confédération rurale are the most on the right. And this has been the growing union in agriculture these last years. I knew someone who worked in that realm and followed it pretty well. In fact they are rather on the right of the right.

You're right, but I just wanted to say that I thought CR (BTW, it's "coordination", I made a mistake) members were more FN or DLR or even MPF and reluctant to vote for the mainstream right (especially a urban one...). I would have seen more abstain in a second round or even vote for Royal over Sarkozy, just on personal behaviour.

[big bad fab]

Hervé de Charette has just left the UMP to join the NC.

Guess who is happy ? Hervé Morin thinks he is now able to use the name UDF as he wants.

Charette has declared the name and the brand at the INPI (official body which registers copyrights and trademarks).
BUT, when you go to the INPI, you just DECLARE something and the INPI registers it, EVEN IF it's a complete fake... even if someone has registered a similar thing years before.
The INPI is not a court that decides on the real owner of a name, a brand or some rights.

So, expect a big legal fight with the MoDem (), especially as Morin wants to have a "founding congress" (? if the UDF has never died ? and the NC already exists ? already a legal weakness for Morin, I think....) this year.

[big bad fab]

Lots of buzz on teh interwebs about the Jeunes Pop's new lipdub clip featuring cabinet ministers singing, raping and the like.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29rmTMegr-A

Also, it's a Quebecois song and the accent is clear at some moments, adding to the hilarity of lipdub. Now, why can't Young Liberals of Canada do this?

The most depressing for me is to see Woerth, Darcos and Wauquiez in this...

[big bad fab]

And now, we'll be overloaded with stupid words from the Great, the Beautiful, the Smart, the Clever Dominique, future Emperor of France, and from his stupid aides: Goulard, Tron, Grand, so proud of themselves...

And it's over to have a clever centre-right candidate in 2012: Sarkozy-Villepin in the first round, Sarkozy-Aubry in the second.
Sometimes, I wish I were not French... (sigh)

Juppé reviens !

[big bad fab]

The model for Sarkozy would be... Chirac in 1995.
But the problem is that Chirac wasn't in power then...

Presidents reelected since 1965 benefited from cohabitations (1988 and 2002), when they were in power (with means to campaign) without being in charge (so without having any responsibility in power), sort of !

The "real" incumbents lost: Giscard in 1981, Chirac in 1988, Balladur in 1995, Jospin in 2002.
In 1974, there wasn't a real incumbent (or you may argue it was Chaban). And in 2007, there wasn't any incumbent...
Of course, there is 1969. But some of you think anyway that France wasn't a "democracy" yet

The main problem for Sarkozy isn't his popularity.
The main problem for him is that the fighting inside the PS seems to settle down: it will be a "classical" fight between Aubry and DSK, probably even solved BEFORE the primaries.
The primaries will only be a way to weaken the Greens and the PG and, for some young or less young ones, to put themselves in a good position for 2017 or for the primeministership: Hollande, Moscovici, Valls.

Of course, if you listen to DSK this morning in RTL, it's clear that he wants to be candidate...
So, if he is motivated so early, the fight with Aubry may be nastier than expected in 2011.
But it won't be enough for Sarkozy.

[big bad fab]

Damn, I didn't think you were so pessimistic : that makes me a bit more optimistic.
However, I doubt that fights in the PS are going to calm down, there are just too many people who want the job.

To put you back into pessimism (or not !):

a poll from... CSA, for... Marianne, and with only a 802-sample...
CSA is a crap pollster: they overestimated the FN (many times) and Bayrou; they change the first results they've got with weird "corrections"; they work here for a very anti-Sarkozy magazine (and so de facto pro-Villepin...)
Anyway:

Arthaud (LO) 1
Besancenot (NPA) 6
Buffet (PCF) 3
Aubry (PS) 19
Duflot (Verts) 8
Bayrou (MoDem) 12
Villepin (DVD) 10
Sarkozy (UMP) 32
Le Pen (FN) 9

Sarkozy 52
Aubry 48

It's amazing to see so many wasted voters: Bayrou, Villepin, Besancenot, Le Pen.
And the huge importance of the "marais": Bayrou, Villepin, Duflot.
And interesting to see how nationally the left is unable to be really better than the right.

Let's note that there isn't Mélenchon and there isn't any centre-right candidate, nor any Villiers or Boutin.

Arthaud (LO) 1
Besancenot (NPA) 7
Buffet (PCF) 3
Strauss-Kahn (PS) 22
Duflot (Verts) 9
Bayrou (MoDem) 10
Villepin (DVD) 10
Sarkozy (UMP) 29
Le Pen (FN) 9

Sarkozy 48
Strauss-Kahn 52

Well, at least, it's fine to see that an election can again be won in the center...

[big bad fab]

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LOL no way, he just won't be over 5%.

And anyways, I still have more confidence in a CSA for Marianne poll than in a OpinionWay for Le Figaro poll...

In this, you may be wrong now, because OpinionWay wants to earn money and become a big pollster, so they need a bigger credibility.
In 2007-2008, CSA was really the worst, and OpinionWay (and ViaVoice is comparable) wasn't so bad.

The problem with CSA is that Roland Cayrol thought he was really far more clever than anybody else. And he defined real weird "corrective" rules.

[big bad fab]

To come back to Benoît's idea that such polls are too far away from the election, I also agree.

But you are forced to take them into account, at least a bit:

1- because medias tell their stories with them: and Villepin is the new story of the time... as Duflot was a bit, some time ago;

2- because politicans and parties use them to make their strategies,

3- because... regional elections aren't very exciting... and French politicans are globally utter these days... so, to have fun with French politics means that you are forced to play a bit with those polls... sigh...

[big bad fab]

Ah, here is LO176-1 of the Code electoral dealing with this kind of stuff:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would assume there will be a by-election.

Yep. Not a very interesting one, though.

BTW, I'm quite happy with Migaud, because the reform of financial jurisdictions, of local financial courts under the Cour des comptes, will probably be revised or even dropped.
Unless Migaud, who had a bad report on the Grenoble "communauté d'agglomération", over which he presided, from his local financial court, wants to have a small revenge !
But I don't think so, he is a respectful guy, a moderate and reasonable one.

Ouf ! Sarkozy hasn't made a bad pick, for once !

[big bad fab]

he is really politically dead

Yeah, the Chouan is retreating back to the Bocage more and more. He's done little lobbying for the MPF in the regionals except for his own friends-and-neighbours in Vendée. There's been some grumblings in the (small) MPF federations outside Vendée, from what I've heard.

Please note that Guillaume Peltier, coming from the "efficient" far-right or this zone between far-right and harsh right which was well represented in Radio Courtoisie, and who was Villiers' right (no joke) hand for 2 or 3 years, has left him last year and is now indirectly "used" by Copé.
Peltier was very active and, without him and with his health problems, Villiers seems indeed to just turn back to his baronny.

[big bad fab]

"Sane"... Well...

[big bad fab]

Thank you, Benoît.
That's what I wanted to say.

Antonio, listen to Zemmour on Histoire, when he takes part in Michel Field's historical debates. You'll see that he's not insane.

[big bad fab]

Translate also the part where Guillon speaks about "yeux de fouine" et "menton fuyant".

Honestly, from anyone else (let's say Frêche or Hortefeux or some anonymous cartoonist ), there would have been big cries about OMG ANTI-SEMITISM OMG.

Guillon is just another self-centered seller of bad jokes.
And some dares to compare him with Desproges... sigh... poor Pierre !

[big bad fab]

On something more interesting than the day's little bitchfest and caling-Besson-a-Nazi (I plead guilty, but I do it for fun)...

UMP deputy and Mayor of Vannes (but open Sarkozy-hater since 2007) François Goulard has announced that Villepin will be creating his own party on Thursday to provide "an alternative" to the Hungarian. Is Sarkozy's likely nomination of Tron and Baroin to the cabinet his response to this and his last-ditch attempt at killing the movement in its egg?

Potential members:

Azouz Begag (MoDem) ??
Auguste Cazalet, UMP Senator (Chiraquien) not so sure, too old
Henri Cuq, UMP deputy not so sure, it's the old school, not really fond of mad Villepin
Jean-Louis Debré, UMP President of the Constitutional Council (Chirac's friend) he can't be openly a member
Daniel Garrigue, NI (ex-UMP) deputy (anti-Sarkozy and Gaullist to boot)
Guy Geoffroy, UMP deputy
Brigitte Girardin, former cabinet minister
François Goulard, UMP deputy
Jean-Pierre Grand, UMP deputy
Pierre Jarlier, UMP Senator
Jacques Le Guen, UMP deputy (recently in a mini-feud with the party over his flopped candidacy in Bretagne)
Jean Leonetti, UMP deputy no ! he's a moderate guy, with good relations with everyone, sort of Larcher
Hervé Mariton, UMP deputy (but split with Villepin over NATO, Iraq in 2003. Supported McCain in 2006)
Georges Tron, UMP deputy (but new cabinet minister)
Jean Ueberschlag, Chiraquien UMP deputy
Benoît Yvert, member of Villepin's club
Marie-Jo Zimmermann, UMP deputy

Plus a number of local officials and Villepin's club members... It's unlikely this party will allow double-membership with the UMP, so you could see some big departures from the UMP. The 2011 cantonal and senatorial elections will be bloody.

And don't forget about Marie-Anne Montchamp, deputy from Val-de-Marne.

Maybe also Catherine Vautrin, former harsh enemy of Dutreil in Reims.
François Cornut-Gentille (the other "bébé Chirac" from Aube) will stay closer to Copé. Gaymard, if somebody asks him (no chance !), would probably do the same.
Philippe Dallier (senator from 9-3) is closer to Raffarin and Longuet.

I'm not so sure Villepin will have a big success among UMP apparatchiks: evzerybody has the CPE in mind. In 2006, Villepin almost killed the entire right...

And many chiraquiens will pick Copé over Villepin and they'd be right.

Like Bayrou, Le PenS, Laguiller, he will be a name without many troops behind.
Unfortunately, the French people like those mad men and kick out the real good ones (Barre, Rocard, Juppé, after PMF).

[big bad fab]

Je ne réagirai plus sur ces polémiques (le mot semble être le seul que les médias sont désormais capables de prononcer): je n'aurais pas dû le faire, d'ailleurs, car c'est totalement stérile. Chacun reste sur son "point de vue" et, de toute façon, nous réagissons toujours à partir d'éléments tronqués (merci Benoît de rétablir la nuance nécessaire en l'occurrence).

La France est une dictature fasciste où tous les grands esprits libéraux ne peuvent plus s'exprimer, c'est bien connu....
Je n'en peux franchement plus de cet état d'esprit libertaro-pseudo-progressiste du "toujours plus" (ou plutôt du toujours moins, dans le sens de la médiocrité, du nivellement culturel, de l'abaissement de la responsabilité individuelle, de la destruction de la cellule familiale) dans tous les domaines et dont Canal + est le fleuron.


Pour faire court:

L'homme se croit tout-puissant (gauche ou droite, libéral ou conservateur), il se veut tout puissant.
Ce qui fait que certains exploitent les autres, ne pensent qu'à gagner de l'argent et/ou à accumuler la puissance.
Ce qui fait aussi que l'eugénisme et les manipulations génétiques sont déjà là, que le droit à l'enfant doit être aussi simple et immédiat que le droit à la canette de Coca.
Ce qui fait que l'on détruit tout acte d'instruction et d'enseignement, chaque homme, dès 1 an ayant en lui la toute-puissance et tout savoir transmis étant inutile ou douteux.
Ce qui fait que l'on détruit toute transmission de valeurs, de connaissances, de savoir-faire, je dirais même de simple bon sens (cf. les gens qui s'installent dans des zones submersibles et sont, après, des "victimes").

Comme cela aboutit à des injustices, des inégalités, des problèmes, des catastrophes de tous ordres, on se dit alors "comment cela se fait-il?".
C'est trop dur de penser que chacun est individuellement responsable (de son propre comportement automobile, de ses propres déchets, de l'éducation de ses enfants, de son respect des lois, etc).
Alors on trouve des explications, des justifications extérieures: le discours "victimaire", les discriminations, les élites, le grand capital, etc
et les médias créent des "polémiques", répétés sans fin dans des talk-shows stériles et "fabriqués" ou dans ce sarcasme destructeur continuel.
Et on continue de plus belle: soyons de moins en moins exigeants à l'école, créons des postes pour encadrer chaque geste de chaque jeune, dépensons toujours plus pour soi-disant compenser les fractures sociales.

Egoïsme absolu d'un côté, responsabilité diluée et forcément extérieure de l'autre. Quelle contradiction !

Vraiment, les grands esprits "libéraux" devraient lire Lasch et Michéa, pourtant pas des auteurs de droite...
La destruction post-soixante-huitarde de la famille et de l'école est bien l'exact complément du capitalisme du caddie et de l'écran publicitaire.

Bref. J'arrête là définitivement, sinon je tomberais dans les travers des lignes de "discussion" sur Internet.
Et je reviens à ce qui est fun et ce pourquoi je suis ici:


Amazing to see how quickly Tron is now sidelined by other Villepinists:

Brigitte Girardin ajoute : "Georges Tron a pris une décision personnelle. Depuis le mois de septembre, il voulait entrer au gouvernement. C'est un balladurien, ce n'est pas un pilier du villepinisme."

On another note about a French right divided again:
Borloo should take the opportunity of the carbon tax to quit the government and create a big centre-right party, moderate, eco-friendly.
It's a dream...

Oh, and you're right, Hash, 2011 cantonales and sénatoriales will be bloody.
I really think few UMP apparatchiks will follow Villepin BUT only a fistful of seats are now needed for the left to gain the Senate and Villepin's followers and probable very harsh reaction from loyal sarkozysts locally will contribute to a likely historical swing.

Even if the socialists and the Greens have internal fightings, those on the right will be worse. It's only the beginning of the beginning of 2012, but the momentum is now clearly and deeply on the left.