France General Discussion

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The NPA is just a temporary name, and we should know the new name by Saturday!

The delegates voted 316-270 to keep the name NPA rather than adopt the name PAR (Revolutionary Anticapitalist Party).

Tinpot name.

NPA was also the abbreviation of a talk-show on "young", urban, liberal (in the US meaning) and quite leftie TV channel Canal +:
"Nulle Part Ailleurs" (= not anywhere else)....

Even among our revolutionaries, marketing isn't far away....

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There has been talk in Bretagne against Le Guen, with some proposing the candidacy of the former prefect Bernadette Malgorn (which BRTD would probably hate very, very, very much). But the local UMP has united behind Le Guen (a Villepeniste).

By reading on Wikipedia, BRTD would be right to hate this thing, who pretend to be a person.

You're right, we can't say anything else that she is really ugly...

What is more, she would lose big against Le Drian.
Le Guen will also lose but, at least, he won't be seen as a "Parisien" dropped there by Sarkozy.

I'm not sure many UMP members are aware to vote for a Villepiniste. They are "légitimistes" and so they vote for the only candidate available. And they don't want to see an outsider like Bernadette.

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We don't have a thread for the regionals, but the UMP held its primary today. The results are available on the party website.

Turnout in brackets.


Basse Normandie [57.04%]: Lambert 54.59%, , Améline 45.41%

Bourgogne [46.50%]: Suguenot 57.50%, Anciaux 42.50%

Centre [45.81%]: Novelli 72.60%, Lepeltier 27.40%

Ile-de-France [48.08%]: Pécresse 59.87%, Karoutchi 40.13%

Languedoc Roussillon [53.25%]: Couderc 35.43%, Castex 32.95%, Jeanjean 21.54%, Rivenq 10.08%

Midi-Pyrénées [45.50%]: Barèges 54.63%, Trémège 45.37%

Nord-Pas-de-Calais [36.92%]: Lazaro 77.55%, Pick 22.45%

Rhône-Alpes [32.65%]: Grossetête 46.92%, Carle 28.28%, Blanc 24.81%

Aquitaine: Darcos unopposed

Bretagne: Le Guen unopposed

Champagne-Ardenne: Warsmann unopposed

Franche-Comté: Joyandet unopposed

Haute Normandie: Le Maire unopposed

Limousin: Archer unopposed

Lorraine: Hénart unopposed

Pays de la Loire: Bachelot unopposed

Picardie: Cayeux unopposed

Poitou-Charentes: De Richemont unopposed


No results available for Auvergne, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or the overseas regions.

Auvergne and PACA are "postponed" in September.

In fact, it was to wait to be sure Hortefeux (Auvergne, and Work and Social Minister) is still alive after big mottos of this spring...
And to wait for any candidate other than Hubert Falco (Toulon's mayor and secrétaire d'Etat in Fillon's government), whom Sarkozy is trying to convince to fight against the socialist Vauzelle.
Falco would be the best candidate for the UMP in PACA: he is really very well elected in Var department. He is moderate. He has a southern pronounciation...

But it will be very difficult.

The UMP may regain Champagne, maybe Lorraine and Franche-Comté.
Even in Basse-Normandie (Lambert is very uninspiring) and Pays-de-la-Loire, normally 2 rightist regions, the UMP is not sure at all to win.

Even if I've said some weaknesses of Valérie Pécresse, I'm very glad for her.
She is smart and she is smart...

Valérie 2017 !

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- You're right on Bachelot.

- As for a villepiniste or a sarkozyste UMP in Brittany, I'm not sure voters would be aware of this difference... to say the least !!

For a long time, I was a supporter of a big party of the right in France:
UDF (er, no... let's write UDFs), RPR,
but not extreme right (of course !), or even hard right (MPF).

But in fact, French voters don't like this and our 2-rounds electoral systems mean that it's more efficient to have 2 parties to gather more voters in the 1st round.

And Brittany is the best evidence of this: the UMP alone can't represent all the right, especially the centre right and many voters prefer the MoDem, despite its sectarian side, or even the moderate socialists (former "social catholics" or "deuxième gauche" around Rocard and Le Pensec).

- The most surprising result in these primary results is that Novelli trounced Lepeltier, who is a better politician, with efficient local networks and with a moderate image which can be good in hard times for the right. And Novelli is a real "libéral" in the French meaning, i.e. a free-trade, free-market, small-governement "fondie".

And, now, if the PS worried a bit for the Centre region, it is now completely at ease...
Novelli will be trounced by any socialist candidate (most probably Michel Sapin, a moderate former Rocard supporter, now Hollande supporter, with a Teddy Bear image).
Even Lambert is a better choice thant Novelli...

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Montebourg has released the first part of his report on how to reform the PS. His main points include the establishment of American-style open primaries (also used in Greece and Italy) and starting the preparation of the presidential race four years before the election.

In other words, hold the presidential primary right now while Royal is still politically relevant (as Royal suggested immediately after her defeat), and let the MoDem militants vote while you're are it.

Be careful, Montebourg doesn't support Royal any longer. In fact, I think he supports mainly himself...
So, an open primary (i.e. where any French voter can vote, provided they give a few euros) isn't a way to guarantee that Royal is chosen.

In fact, many hard-leftists would also vote, not only MoDem voters and, I think, far more, than MoDem voters.
Because really motivated MoDem voters aren't very numerous; because centre-right voters who still vote for Bayrou won't bother to pay to vote for Royal or DSK rather than for Aubry.
And center-loft voters of MoDem aren't enough to compensate for PG, PCF, MRC, NPA, LO, Bovéists, Greens, etc activists who will not vote for Royal.

It may seem weird but Royal would be more at ease with a closed primary.
Remember she made 50% last autumn, with 75-80% of the establishment against her (Paris and Ile-de-France, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Seine-Maritime, Gironde, Brittany,...).

Although it would be nice if France had a much simpler partisan registration system.

I don't understand ?
You are French and 18 years old, you can vote.
You a re just required to be registered in your city, by bringing one single evidence of your residence.
Not very complicated....

And inside political parties, you vote when you are a member. Quite simple and clear.

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In homage to Maurice Druon who died today:

Ami entends-tu...

It's not the best version of this song but this one has English lyrics. It's the most famous song of the Résistance. Maurice Druon, through other things, wrote this song with Joseph Kessel.

Sad news

Le chant des partisans is the best song in the world.

I agree !

Poignant, prenant, as we say in French.

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All Presidents since 1981 have been epic fails, with some redeeming qualities.

Mitterrand was not a Saint, but he was certainly a great President.

You mustn't be very old...
He was a great politician, sure. Not a great president.

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Had Mitterrand cheated in every election, had he did a French watergate, I would still admire him for having been the only french politician who had the courage to abolish death penalty.
But, furthermore, he perfectly incarned the "force tranquille" he promised : able to lead great social reforms, but also resolutely pro-American and pro-European, he was a very cultivated man, and intelligent in every sense of the word.

Giscard (whom I don't like for other reasons) led far greater "social" reforms.
Mitterrand, as Giscard and Chirac, was unable to trim health and pensions costs. He recruited many civil servants (I'm one of them...) who are a heavy financial burden now.
As Giscard, he broke down the education system, by dropping emulation and republican elitism.
He practiced the old "Françafrique" policy (as every president).
He had many corrupted friends (Pelat, Grossouvre, who committed suicide inside the walls of Elysée palace).
He supported (with John Major) Serbian regime, which was a real shame on France and UK.

Mitterrand of course had good points: "décentralisation" (devolution of some powers to local councils), a pro-American foreign policy during the Cold War and in the Gulf, a decisive boost of Euroepan integration (with Kohl and Delors).
But they are far overweighted by bad points.

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An interessant article about what we discussed about some time ago, Sarkozy's attitude on secularism. See Marianne #634 page 37-39. Always interesting...
By the was, you can also follow the many articles of Charlie Hebdo, particularly those of Agathe André, Caroline Fourest and Fiammetta Venner. Bad news for secularism...

Please just note that these 3 are the climax of absolute laïcism... They are arch-"laïcardes" !

Would you say "bad news for values" just with articles from Valeurs Actuelles and Figaro-Magazine by François d'Orcival, Henry de Lesquen and Philippe de Villiers  ?

Unlikely, to say the least. So, take a more balanced viewpoint on the subject.

[big bad fab]

An interessant article about what we discussed about some time ago, Sarkozy's attitude on secularism. See Marianne #634 page 37-39. Always interesting...
By the was, you can also follow the many articles of Charlie Hebdo, particularly those of Agathe André, Caroline Fourest and Fiammetta Venner. Bad news for secularism...

Please just note that these 3 are the climax of absolute laïcism... They are arch-"laïcardes" !

Would you say "bad news for values" just with articles from Valeurs Actuelles and Figaro-Magazine by François d'Orcival, Henry de Lesquen and Philippe de Villiers  ?

Unlikely, to say the least. So, take a more balanced viewpoint on the subject.

Sorry, could you explain me better what "laïcard" exactly means ? I didn't have the impression they were against the practice of religion in the private domain. So they are just secularists.

They write books on the INSIDE of religious organizations (I don't talk about sects, be careful), especially Catholic church, just in order to criticize and make trouble. The "inside", not the public life.
That's "laïcard".

The PRG is a secularist party, for example. Not a "laïcard" one.
Fourest is a "laïcarde", Venner also.

[big bad fab]

An interessant article about what we discussed about some time ago, Sarkozy's attitude on secularism. See Marianne #634 page 37-39. Always interesting...
By the was, you can also follow the many articles of Charlie Hebdo, particularly those of Agathe André, Caroline Fourest and Fiammetta Venner. Bad news for secularism...

Please just note that these 3 are the climax of absolute laïcism... They are arch-"laïcardes" !

Would you say "bad news for values" just with articles from Valeurs Actuelles and Figaro-Magazine by François d'Orcival, Henry de Lesquen and Philippe de Villiers  ?

Unlikely, to say the least. So, take a more balanced viewpoint on the subject.

Sorry, could you explain me better what "laïcard" exactly means ? I didn't have the impression they were against the practice of religion in the private domain. So they are just secularists.

They write books on the INSIDE of religious organizations (I don't talk about sects, be careful), especially Catholic church, just in order to criticize and make trouble. The "inside", not the public life.
That's "laïcard".

The PRG is a secularist party, for example. Not a "laïcard" one.
Fourest is a "laïcarde", Venner also.

They might be "laïcard" as you say, they might critize some religious organizations but they do it in the perspective of defending their opinion, their point of view on such or such domain. I don't see in what this point of view would be less legitimate than an other one.

Read again from the beginning.
Antonio wrote "bad news...".
I just wanted to say that articles by Fourest and Venner are NOT news, they are opinions and they are biased opinions.
An article by François d'Orcival on values is NOT news, it's a point of view.

And our discussion has taken another path, on the word "laïcard".
Fourest and Venner are not traditional secularists as the PRG, they are more than that: they fight religion even in the private sphere. So, their articles are all the more biased.

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Frédéric Mitterrand is rumoured to become Minister of Culture tommorrow, replacing the snob Albanel (who reminds me of the snob lady in Les Visiteurs). Mitterrand is the crook's gay nephew who used to do stupid shows for TV5 and is now director of the Villa Medicis in Rome.

Fred supported Jacquouille in 1995, but was an early supporter of the MRG.

Journalists are still fascinated by ministerial reshuffes under Sarkozy: many, many rumours, many, many names dropped (to mess the left or the MoDem) even if they are completely impossible (but Frédéric Mitterrand will be minister), many, many incompetent guys but useful in the medias....

Sigh....

Juppé, reviens !

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Nice to see Apparu (young UMP MP from Marne), Chatel, Le Maire promoted.

Awful to see the joke of Frédéric Mitterrand (why not Roger Hanin, minister of security ?),
and the return of stupid and vulgar Estrosi.

And be prepared to have some diplomatic troubles inside the EU with Lellouche as European affairs secretary of state !!!
All the more after the technocratic, German-speaking, efficient, clear Le Maire...

Hard to see that Morano is still Family secretary of state, she who declared she would be glad to carry the children of her own daughter...

Hard to see that Wauquiez isn't promoted.

Hard to see that titles of ministries are more and more lunatic...

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Marie-Luce Penchard is actually from the DOM-TOMs and is black, so she certainly isn't a bad choice. Good idea to get somebody who actually knows the place aside from the Guadeloupe ClubMed in the job.

Are you sure ?

She's the daughter of Lucette Michaux-Chevry...
Remember this "nice" old crap, specialized in undiplomatic words, pork and killing of political friends ?

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Anyways, I'm of the opinion that a local is somehow better than a metropolitan like Jégo (who was incompetent).

For Mitterrand, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. The only thing I know of him is the time he was a TV5, where he was decent if not boring.

Ow, ow, ow...

Here I disagree. First on Jégo. At the beginning of the conflict in Guadeloupe, I've been also thinking, what the hell this guy does here?? But events shew that in fact it was Fillon ( so, Sarkozy??) who totally messed up all the points there, and that Jégo just understood very well and very fast what was happening there, and he quickly gave the right solutions, the solutions that the govt finally approved after a big general strike that just give more strength to the movement of protests in the country (what a good management sirs Fillon and Sarko...) and some solutions which from the point of view of all the experts where the only one available and were legitimate. Jégo has been great there and people of Antilles liked him for his competences in this affair, we had with him a good guy for dealing with the social movements and who could have even given some force to the govt because of the psychological adavantage he had now the people of Antilles respected him... What a shame he is fired, was he too popular and thus unpleasant to Sarkozy?? Anyway, his firing is nothing but stupid.

Yep, the chain of real events inside the government isn't clear yet, but it may be Sarkozy's cabinet (so... Marie-Luce Penchard, among others !), on the content, and Fillon, on the method, that have messed it up, not Jégo himself.
Jégo did what he can with, first, no instructions from Paris, then instructions already out-of-fashion due to strikes and fightings. He was on location, on the frontline, and nobody helped him or trusted him to take the decisions on its own.

If Sarkozy uses and drops every young UMP, there will be nobody left in 2013 (after a 2012 defeat) or 2017 to succeed him.... except "unsarkozystes" like Copé, Pécresse or Baroin.
And, as Pécresse may lose next year in Ile-de-France and as Copé will be gunned all the time, the right isn't in a good prospect...

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Some secretaries of state may well be added to the 39 member-list of Fillon-government.

Maybe Lefebvre (Sarkozyst loyalist).
Maybe Leroy (Nouveau Centre).
Maybe Giacobbi (PRG deputy from Corsica).
Maybe Tron (Villepin follower).

This list is striking, when you've lived the Mitterrand years.

Don't you think Sarkozy's governments look more and more like Miterrand's ones,
with over 40 members (up to 46 under Mitterrand I think),
with some useless and weird portfolios,
with all the minorities represented inside the majority (PSU, MRG, Verts, PCF,...),
with all the wings of the main party represented ("les courants du PS", "les sensibilités de l'UMP"), but with a clear grip of the President's wing,
with some men of "ouverture" (former members of the opposition),
with some men and women of "civil society",
with many members here only because of what they are, not because of what they can do...

Chirac and Giscard's governments (including Jospin's one, even with "gauche plurielle"), were a bit more of one colour, more "political", less diverse.

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My point was that Sarkozy is influenced by Mitterrand's behaviour. The Giscard's comparison is a dubious one.

Surprises, even for your own side,
putting the debate on a different sibject when you are deadlocked (remember 1984 and a constitutional debate to get out of the school question),
acting outside when the French debate is politically dangerous,
governments to please wings, local barons, etc

Of course, he's more in charge, he talks far more than Mitterrand. But I think Attali has had some influence on the young Sarkozy, more than Chirac.
BTW, Chirac has himself been influenced by Mitterrand after 1986...

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Villiers has just agreed to join a contact committee between parties of the presidential majority.

After his bad results in European elections, he's forced to rally the big party of the right.
It was the same after 1995 presidential election: he was indebted and then began his dependance on the RPR and on Pasqua especially. Pasqua even tried to swallow all the MPF in the RPF.

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...
(Bruno Retailleau, deputy of Vendée, was already about to enter the government in January, but Sarkozy stopped him at the last moment.)

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Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...

Horrible... I thought getting rid of Boutin meant finally stopping the social regression...

Who the hell cares? The MPF is irrelevant and always will be. It's not some Villiers hack who will influence government policy in the State Secretariat for Sewer Systems and Dog Catchers.

Hash is right.
My point wasn't to talk about IDEAS, just about political life and TACTICS.
It's funny to see Villiers, after all he said on Sarkozy and his betrayal of the rightist electorate, going to Canossa, only because he is indebted and has had a bad result recently (even in Vendee, BTW...).

And, Benoît, I've just refered to a small post for an MPF man, not for Villiers himself, of course not. Bruno Retailleau is a possible candidate.
Nobody would notice it !

As for Christians in politics, well, christianity isn't exactly only rules on sexuality...
The so-called "solidarité" -everybody has this word on theirs lips nowadays in France- is in fact an old Christian concept.
The same for the rule of law in working areas, for the respect of human, animal and natural life (I'm not talking about abortion), for the idea of respect.

[big bad fab]

Villiers has just agreed to join a contact committee between parties of the presidential majority.

After his bad results in European elections, he's forced to rally the big party of the right.
It was the same after 1995 presidential election: he was indebted and then began his dependance on the RPR and on Pasqua especially. Pasqua even tried to swallow all the MPF in the RPF.

Maybe a small secretary of state for the MPF soon... When I say that it's a Mitterrand-like government...
(Bruno Retailleau, deputy of Vendée, was already about to enter the government in January, but Sarkozy stopped him at the last moment.)

Now, it's CPNT turn...

Its leader, Frédéric Nihous (a former RPR member), has just said there are talkings with Xavier Bertrand on CPNT joining the contact committee of the presidential majority.

It may be the end of this hunters' story in French elections, as South-West hunters, more on the left, won't follow.

And maybe a sad day for Hash !

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- MPF and CPNT join for financial and electoral reasons.

After the European campaign, they are indebted (it was the same for Villiers after his failed presidential bid of 1995).
And with the "new" electoral system for regional elections, implemented for the first time in 2004, they fear to have no (CPNT) or just one or two (MPF) regional counsellors.

- Now, for DLR, it led a small campaign for the European elections. And most of its campaigning consists in media blitz appearances of Dupont-Aignan himself. So, it doesn't cost much !
And being a parliamentarian and a mayor, he has some means to act... maybe on the edge of irregularity, but anyway regularly, as many French politicians have learnt to do.

And now that MPF specificity will fade, DLR may have a small opportunity to grasp Villiers' former media time, as the only "true" opposition from the right.
So, DLR won't join the UMP.

- There is one party that, surprisingly, has no "places" as Antonio says, this is the PRG, neither as a party of course (initial hesitating of Baylet in 2007 is really over: almost all of PRG members are really left people), nor through some figures (although Giacobbi and Schwartzenberg have recently been among the rumored future members of the government).

- And, in a way, some wings inside the UMP are sidelined indise the majority....
See the old or middle-old "chiraquiens" (Raffarin, Perben, Baroin, Jacob,...) and, of course, "villepinistes" (Tron, Mariton,...).

That's a pity in the case of Baroin, but I think Sarkozy wants to let "chiraquiens" fade away... And, tactically, he may be right:
Gaymard is out, after a (silly) scandal of appartment,
Dutreil has left politics after his defeat in Reims,
Robien is out after his defeat in Amiens,
Perben has weakened himself in Lyons,
Raffarin is out-of-date (and there's the easy argument of having Bussereau, the only "raffariniste", inside the govenrment)
Ollier can be kept outside with the easy argument that Alliot-Marie, with whom he lives, is inside,
Baroin is forgotten by French people (all the more now that he doesn't live any longer with Marie Drucker, a good-looking TV anchor and daughter of the big media family of the Druckers... and when a politician isn't "inside" the media business any longer, it's a big impediment !).

Apart from Albanel (already out and not threatening politically),
Sarkozy has only "saved" the former juppéistes: Woerth, Bertrand, Apparu, Jégo (but he's now outside the government...).

Pécresse, Falco, Joyandet were real "chiraquiens", but they have rallied Sarkozy early (even before Xavier Bertrand) and well served during the presidential campaign.
And they are local biggies (Falco and Joyandet) or want to become one (Pécresse: BTW, if she loses in 2010 in Ile-de-France, Sarkozy will drop her without hesitating more than a half second, you'll see...).

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- Now, for DLR, it led a small campaign for the European elections. And most of its campaigning consists in media blitz appearances of Dupont-Aignan himself. So, it doesn't cost much !
And being a parliamentarian and a mayor, he has some means to act... maybe on the edge of irregularity, but anyway regularly, as many French politicians have learnt to do.

And now that MPF specificity will fade, DLR may have a small opportunity to grasp Villiers' former media time, as the only "true" opposition from the right.
So, DLR won't join the UMP.

No, no, Dupont-Aignan is clearly out of date, even fans of De Gaulle, who would vote for him, wouldn't believe in him at all. He seems to be also a kind of small Bayrou, he believes in him, no matter the rest, in worst, more passionate than Bayrou, and oppositely to Bayrou, I think he wouldn't even have like him a small clan of passionate fans around him. Then, he can't work on Villiers' ground, Villiers clearly works on xenophobic feelings and on a strong social conservatism, Dupont-Aignan doesn't.

I've just wanted to say that DLR may take 1% more (that is to say about 40% of Villiers' electorate) than its usual 1,5%....
And, be careful, Villiers sometimes speak with xenophobic accents, but its electorate isn't at all the same as the FN one.

That's why the "strong social conservatism" mustn't be mixed with xenophobia and nationalism. Villiers' electorate is strongly conservative and anti-European, but it's an elitist and capitalist one. And it's not the extreme-right.
An interesting thing to point is that the "far right intellectuals" (the first club de l'Horloge, even GRECE on the real extreme-right) haven't been linked to Villiers: they were mostly between the "ultra-libéral" wing of the PR (Guillet, Novelli, Griotteray, etc), the far-right wing of the RPR (Pasqua, some south-easterners) and the MNR. Eventually, many finished in the FN (or nowhere...).
Only one, Henry de Lesquen, because of his social conservatism, is a Villiers one (and managed to take the current club de l'Horloge close to the MPF).

The FN electorate is far more popular, blue-collar, small-business and petit-bourgeois.

So, it was (and is) an illusion for Villiers to think he can steal significantly FN votes.
And, on the contrary, Dupont-Aignan can take many votes from Villiers: elitist and strongly conservative voters who don't want to vote for the UMP, which is seen as too weak, too open, and who can't even been wooed by Boutin's party, as she is far more social and not nationalist.

And those voters won't go for Villepin as he is an insider of the right, even if he is personally harsh with Sarkozy.

- And, in a way, some wings inside the UMP are sidelined indise the majority....
See the old or middle-old "chiraquiens" (Raffarin, Perben, Baroin, Jacob,...) and, of course, "villepinistes" (Tron, Mariton,...).

That's a pity in the case of Baroin, but I think Sarkozy wants to let "chiraquiens" fade away... And, tactically, he may be right:
Gaymard is out, after a (silly) scandal of appartment,
Dutreil has left politics after his defeat in Reims,
Robien is out after his defeat in Amiens,
Perben has weakened himself in Lyons,
Raffarin is out-of-date (and there's the easy argument of having Bussereau, the only "raffariniste", inside the govenrment)
Ollier can be kept outside with the easy argument that Alliot-Marie, with whom he lives, is inside,
Baroin is forgotten by French people (all the more now that he doesn't live any longer with Marie Drucker, a good-looking TV anchor and daughter of the big media family of the Druckers... and when a politician isn't "inside" the media business any longer, it's a big impediment !).

Apart from Albanel (already out and not threatening politically),
Sarkozy has only "saved" the former juppéistes: Woerth, Bertrand, Apparu, Jégo (but he's now outside the government...).

Pécresse, Falco, Joyandet were real "chiraquiens", but they have rallied Sarkozy early (even before Xavier Bertrand) and well served during the presidential campaign.
And they are local biggies (Falco and Joyandet) or want to become one (Pécresse: BTW, if she loses in 2010 in Ile-de-France, Sarkozy will drop her without hesitating more than a half second, you'll see...).

You spoke about the real opposition on the right with Dupont-Aignant, according to what I said I disagree with that.

Yes, for me the real opposition on the right can come from...Villepin. For me he is the only one who has the energy and the real will to fight against Sarkozy, and you surely saw that he already did, and strongly for someone from the right. Plus he is the only one who would have the strongest network. Yes, as we can see Sarkozists are not that numerous, most of people are chiraquiens, some like Bertrand or Pécresse really converted, but I think that a big number could change if they felt the wind changing. And Villepin can anyways count on his 3 strong supports that are Tron, Mariton and Goulard, these guys can become very strong I think if they have the opportunity. Mariton is a real sniper, Tron is a bit too much of a fan but he can be useful and Goulard has the image of someone serious and efficient. This is for the close guard, and throughout all chiraquiens that could rally him, I think Villepin could find a strong support with Baroin (IMO, Villepin is the only possibility of future for Baroin), and also with...Raffarin, both have been clearly sidelined by Sarkozy but both are strong, and if Villepin has a dynamics around him he could count on that both I think.

In short, the biggest danger for Sarkozy in the years to come is Villepin, and personally, in a run with even Strauss Kahn I could vote for him in presidentials I think, Strauss Kahn is too much a technician, it is not an "homme d'état" (way to refer to a man who is able to lead a state) IMO.

I talked about "real" opposition, as perceived in the medias.
I'm not judging. I'm trying to analyze. (Always this difference that many cannot grasp in this forum).

Of course, Villepin is the most opposed to Sarkozy in the right.
But he has his own media time. When I talked about Dupont-Aignan and Villiers, I talked about some minutes of TV here or there: but, for these outsiders, this is hugely strategic !

BTW, as for Villepin, politically, he may well definitely fall after the September trial. And if he doesn't, a smaller crisis than expected may be bad news for him. 2012 is already too late for him.

Furthermore, locally, the UMP is more and more sarkozyst, especially with Bertrand and the (ugly) Edouard Courtial "grilling" all the local apparatchiks and replacing those "inefficient".
What is more, Sarkozy, with the European elections, with the regional elections (which may be not very good but which can't be worse than in 2004), with its plan for reforming local councillors, pleases many UMP "barons", as he's still seen as an election-winner.

And Villepin is deeply unpopular, among the youngs and the left of course, but also among the right: in 2006, with the CPE (a failed project of working contract for the youth) and the BIG demonstrations it entailed, he may have put the right definitely down.
Many on the right remember that, without Sarkozy and without a divided PS and this Royal clown, the right would have lost the 2007 elections...
And remember who had the SO BRILLIANT idea of dissolving the National Assembly in 1997, paving the way for 5 years of Jospin ?

Among the right, Tron, Goulard and Mariton (the latter is a "moderate" villepinist...) don't count for much. The old chiraquiens, which are more numerous, would support Alliot-Marie (for the moment) and, in 2012 or after, Copé but not Villepin.

And now, I make a personal judgement:
maybe even Bayrou and Royal are less mad than Villepin.
Villepin is so proud of himself, he is full of his own presumed superiority... He seems to live in another dimension or, at least, in a book or a movie, and a thriller or spy book... He seems to see himself as a new Napoleon... He is totally unable to listen to others and to be realistic... He has proved to be so stubborn...
One speech against Bush Jr. (not very hard, eh ?) doesn't make a statesman.

[big bad fab]

Even with powerful Jacques Le Guen and Jean-Pierre Grand, the villepinistes aren't a very important crowd

You're right on the PRG, Hash.
What is interesting is that (I'm a bit exaggerating, but not much, I think) when Baylet and Zuccarelli retire, and if the "young RG" (I don't remember their name) take the power, it will be quite a left wing of the PS: DSK, Royal, Delanoë, Moscovici and Hollande are all closer to the centre !

And of course, Sarkozy saved the juppéistes because they converted. And they converted because they were younger than the mainstream chiraquiens...
I think, though, that this distinction may well come back: just imagine Sarkozy faces great internal problems (more social or police ones than economic, I think; or even corruption and favoritism ones) in 2011, just imagine Copé wants to take a risk and run as soon as 2012 (like Obama ran as soon as 2008... sorry for this comparison )...
I'm sure you may find, behind Copé, some of these juppéistes (Woerth, Jégo), and some of the younger ex-chiraquiens (Pécresse, Kosciuszko-Morizet).
But not Bertrand: he's now too much dependent on Sarkozy, as he's hated by many on the right ("le chouchou" will stick to him...).

What's interesting in all this is that Borloo has really faded away from the frontpage, although he's the only alternative to Sarkozy on ideas.
BE CAREFUL ! I'm not saying he has real or clear ( you know his alcoholic image...) ideas. I'm just talking about political positioning.
And I'm not saying either he is a CREDIBLE alternative, in human and electoral terms...

As for 2012, if there are no significant candidate from the centre-right (and there won't be... bouhouhou... Juppé, Barnier, where are you ?), I'll be forced to vote for Sarkozy. Maybe Boutin in the 1st round, just to bother Sarkozy a bit, if she's candidate.

Why can't there be a big centre-right party with one fine leader in France ?
There was a big centre-party with the UDF, but, as for leaders, well...
The only fine ones were second-class (Barrot, Bosson) or... outside the party (Barre) or in another one (Juppé, Barnier).

[big bad fab]

I was going to vote for Nihous as a protest option in 2012, but since he probably won't run, I'll be force to vote for another protest option. Dear God, my first vote and it's already as awful as hell.

I wish there was a viable, independent electoral option which was pro-European, socially liberal, secular, centrist and progressive. Sadly, this is France we're talking about and the chances of us having a party as cool as the Norwegian Venstre is next to zero

I've just heard that the Hérault federation of CPNT don't want to join the presidential majority.

I've talked about South-West (with Gironde, Landes and Pyrenees in mind:
"It may be the end of this hunters' story in French elections, as South-West hunters, more on the left, won't follow."
But it's Hérault first.

And they have a good idea for you, Hash: they want to be on Georges Frèche's list for the 2010 regional elections !
See, there is hope for weird opposition...

Really BIG politics this summer in France !!

[big bad fab]

France general discussion...

WTF... It's hot nowadays...

Several days at about 37C here... And they announce it to continue until Thursday...

Just shut inside all the day.

Not in Rennes... we live AT LAST with some sun out there !
Hash and every French poster will understand me