http://www.tns-sofres.com/_assets/files/2012.09.08-pdtielleUS.pdfTNS-Sofres is a rather fine pollster (though not the best currently), but the margin is enough for Obama not to hae to campaign in France....
A sample of 1038, studied on September, 6th, gives the following results:
Obama...............75%
Romney.................6%
don't know...........19%
These are "wishes of victory".
Surprisingly, Obama is even higher among women and among old people.
Unsurprisingly, he does all the better as social situation is higher (it's 63-8 among workers) and as political positioning is on the right (62-20 only among FN voters; but a surprising 8 for Romney among far-leftists: well, tiny sample, of course).
As for the prognosis, it's 58-10.
