France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

There is an OW for Le Figaro: I'll publish it this sunday.
They are on par: 27.5 and it's good nexs for Hollande, I think, even the daily IFOP, because Bayrou isn't gaining on him, in fact.
(and 55/45).

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #46 - 19 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande 28,55
Sarkozy 27,02
Le Pen 16,38
Bayrou 12,64
Mélenchon 9,76
Joly 2,49
(Villepin) 1,00
(Lepage) 0,39
Dupont-Aignan 0,80
Arthaud 0,48
Poutou 0,48   
Cheminade 0,01


Hollande 55,60
Sarkozy 44,40

[big bad fab]

CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

Hash, I've just officially launched an SOS on my blog, towards your ability to analyze Mélenchon's rise, which I can't believe in but which seems to be real...
Look at the daily IFOP tonight: Mélenchon is stronger than ever among workers and employees... OMG, what is occurring ?
Is Mélenchon at last stealing votes from Marion Panzergirl ?

BTW, guys, even readable by anglophones, I've just updated the graphs of my blog on results by pollsters for the 5 big candidates.

Oh, and this BVA poll is really troubling: see the numbers on vote transfers for Bayrou and Le Pen: they are completely "new"...
I know, BVA isn't a good pollster usually, but, well, this is really weird. Don't know what to think for the moment.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #47 - 26 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   28,20
Sarkozy   27,69
Le Pen   15,69
Bayrou   12,49
Mélenchon   11,06
Joly   2,38
(Villepin)   0,47
(Lepage)   0,21
Dupont-Aignan   0,91
Arthaud   0,41
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,04


Hollande   55,04
Sarkozy   44,96


In 6 months, it'll be OK for Sarkozy: he'll be above 50

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #47 - 26 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   28,20
Sarkozy   27,69
Le Pen   15,69
Bayrou   12,49
Mélenchon   11,06
Joly   2,38
(Villepin)   0,47
(Lepage)   0,21
Dupont-Aignan   0,91
Arthaud   0,41
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,04


Hollande   55,04
Sarkozy   44,96


In 6 months, it'll be OK for Sarkozy: he'll be above 50

Don't give up!!!!! Sarkozy can still win.

As a voter, I never give up

[big bad fab]

IFOP's latest breakdown on how the support goes from the first round candidates to the second round candidates:

Intentions de vote au premier tour en %   François Hollande   Nicolas Sarkozy   Ne se prononcent pas

Jean-Luc Mélenchon    79   5   16
François Hollande    99   –   1
Eva Joly    68   11   21
François Bayrou    32   43   25
Nicolas Sarkozy    2   95   3
Marine Le Pen    31   39   30

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Politique/Actu/Sondage-Ifop-Fiducial-Paris-Match.-La-double-incertitude-385387

Currently, it looks like Sarkozy is slightly winning Bayrou's and LePen's voters, but many would also stay at home.

If he can appeal to them, maybe he can close the gap in round 2.

Beware !
For IPSOS, it's
Mélenchon 84 - 3 - 13
Bayrou 32 - 28 - 40
Le Pen 13 - 52 - 35 (pretty in line with a BVA poll last week; whereas, for Bayrou, BVA was more in line with IFOP).
I'll publish the numbers tonight (but on my blog, sorry).

So, it's unclear where Sarkozy will win in the second round: more on Bayrou or more on Le Pen ?
Logically, these 2 "stocks" of voters exclude each other and Sarkozy can't gain on each front.
Except if he is more convincing than Hollande overall, which is highly doubtful.

[big bad fab]

IPSOS uses to be quite favorable to Hollande, and it has him at 54%... You can understand my concerns.

Read my latest article on vote transfers and you'll be even more worried

Though I can understand that you can be a bit febrile (is it correct in English ?)
But, well, there is still a comfortable margin, eh ? we are the 27th day of March, remember ?

[big bad fab]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

[big bad fab]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

I can feel your pain

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ...

Yeah, they were... I knew it wouldn't last... but damn, couldn't we settle on 57-43 ?


Anyways, let's have a look at the horror :





Sarko hasn't overtaken Hollande yet here. Maybe you should switch your weighting to 1/0.5 by next monday instead of in two weeks, Fab ?

Are you masochistic ?!
I won't change my weighting: that would give too much importance to Sarkozy and Mélenchon and I prefer to make it fit to the official campaign (new posters, even more equal time).

"Don't worry", even without changing the weighting, Sarkozy will be ahead of Hollande.

Hash is right in reminding us that absolutely any candidate would have signed immediately for a 54-46 average... and I've said again and again that with such a crisis, such unemployment rates and ten years in power, you MUST lose.

But... there is the bad trend for Hollande... and the way he doesn't change anything to his campaign: being able to adapt a bit can be a good thing, sometimes

[big bad fab]

What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

The NA ends its constitutional term in June, so it isn't as if it can be dissolved early at this stage. The conventional wisdom is for a fairly straightforward left-wing victory if Hollande wins, perhaps not along the lines of 1981 but along the lines of 1988 or 1997. If Sarkozy does win, there is a larger chance that the UMP finds itself in a minority/losing situation, but cohabitation is an unpopular idea (and most politicians act as if it is a thing of the past since Jospin-Chirac changed the electoral calendar).

Elections are on 10th and 17th of June.

In 2002, the right won because people didn't want another cohabitation. This time, it's different, as memories are short-lived... So, I guess the left would won like in 1997 if Sarkozy is reelected. Unless there is an electoral agremment UMP-FN, which would create a war in the centre-right, but could prevent the UMP from losing seats in the South-East and the margins of the Great East.

[big bad fab]

@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

Beware: these categories are large, but the samples tiny.
And Mélenchon isn't strong among military and cops, but among "employés et agents de service de la fonction publique", i.e. low civil servants.
As for white collars, he is strong among PUBLIC white collars... Well, are uni professors and teachers really "cadres supérieurs" nowadays ? I doubt it fiercely...
And France is the paradise for "social sciences" teachers...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #48 - 2 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   27,43
Sarkozy   28,23
Le Pen   15,57
Bayrou   11,67
Mélenchon   12,62
Joly   2,34
(Villepin)   0,09
(Lepage)   0,05
Dupont-Aignan   0,92
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,15


Hollande   54,23
Sarkozy   45,77

Cheminadementum !

More seriously, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande for the first time in the history of this tracker... and Mélenchon is now in 4th position.

[big bad fab]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.

So, we have 56% according to BVA, 55% according to IPSOS, 54% according to LH2, 53.5% according to IFOP and 53% according to Harris. Looks like the uncertainty is increasing again.

IPSOS and IFOP are the best, so I guess it's still 54

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

[big bad fab]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Yep, it wasn't big in 2007.
This time, it'll be the same thing. Sarkozy may expect a 1st round result better than expectations. BUT, in the same time, the leftists will be afraid of a "comeback kid" effect and, as a consequence, the turnout inside the left will be better, erasing any real boost for Sarkozy.

C'est cuit, les gars...

[big bad fab]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

That was an exceptionally strong and short-lived boost in this case. Or, more likely, something to do with margins of error.

Well, Sarko enjoyed a similar boost just after Bayrou-Royal drama and his debate with her
But it was so short-lived that, during the last Friday and Saturday, 2% of people, so disgusted by Royal, thought it was too much for them to vote for Sarkozy...

[big bad fab]

So, Mélenchon's past comments on Brittany and our language has thoroughly disgusted me, so at this stage it seems like I'll vote for Eva Joly or spoil my ballot.

Why not trying Arthaud or Dupont-Aignan ?
After all, for one or two weeks, they've been the most coherent and the clearest of all, I think...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #50 - 16 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,71
Sarkozy   27,72
Le Pen   15,48
Bayrou   10,07
Mélenchon   14,11
Joly   2,41   
Dupont-Aignan   1,12   
Arthaud   0,68
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,06

Hollande   54,67
Sarkozy   45,33

This 0.01 hasn't been done on purpose

Bah... What can I say... The worst country, the worst right, the worst candidate...

Vive Alain Juppé !

[big bad fab]

0.01% ? ROFL

So, the final version of your tracker will only include polls from today to friday 20 ? How many can we expect in these 5 days ?

I'll keep, for 50%, all the polls of the previous week too.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #51 - 20 April 2012   

The last one before the first round !!!   

      

Hollande 27,79
Sarkozy 26,98
Le Pen 15,69
Bayrou 10,32
Mélenchon 13,79
Joly 2,38   
Dupont-Aignan 1,42   
Arthaud 0,53
Poutou 1,05
Cheminade 0,06

Hollande 55,16
Sarkozy 44,84

Hollande just ahead of Sarkozy !
Dupont-Aignan surge and Poutoumentum !
Hollande over 55 in the second round !

I'll post this Saturday on my blog an anlysis of spreads between pollsters, of current trends  and, hence, what I foresee besides this tracker.

Antonio, you are free to post your graphs here

[big bad fab]

I'll only take into account the polls of this last week. So, it will be another update of the second round tracker (but I'm sure we'll have polls for the second round on Sunday evening and on Monday morning - "le premier sondage du second tour !").

[big bad fab]

So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Sarko président !

Why not Dupont-Aignan ? It would be cool to see him having a big consituency in Canada and among French people abroad
After much analysis, we could infer some big Gaullist revival overseas !

[big bad fab]

Here we go !

How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.

[big bad fab]

Guys, I've posted on my blog the last graphs by pollster. May be of some interest if you want to try to predict all this stuff.

If you just follow the trends of my Big Bad Tracker, this should be something like this:
Hollande 27.8 -> 28
Sarkozy 27-> 26.5
Le Pen 15.7 -> 16
Mélenchon 13.8 -> 13.5
Bayrou 10.3 -> 10.5
Joly 2.4 -> 2.5
Dupont-Aignan 1.4 -> 1.5
Poutou 1.1 -> 1
Arthaud 0.5 -> 0.5
Cheminade 0.1 -> 0

Now, I've tried to add effects from poll and media momentum, mobilization, electoral sociology and its consequences on turnout, tactical vote in a "useful" way. And it gives me my personal prediction:
Sarkozy 27.6
Hollande 26.7
Le Pen 14.8
Mélenchon 13.8
Bayrou 9.6
Dupont-Aignan 2.5
Poutou 2.1
Joly 1.9
Arthaud 0.8
Cheminade 0.2

Of course, I'll be completely wrong, as usual when it's about French elections

[big bad fab]

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.