France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #41 - 13 February 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 25% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-February.            


      

Hollande   30,51
Sarkozy   24,66
Le Pen   17,82
Bayrou   12,6
Mélenchon   7,84
Joly   2,79
Villepin   1,39
Morin   0,35
Lepage   0,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Boutin   0,18
Nihous   0,15
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,23
Chevènement   0,14
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   57,53
Sarkozy   42,47

BVA has started to test Cheminade, so I include him in my tracker. He can only go up
But having a LaRouchist in this tracker is enough to make me feel "happy" (I mean "amused": don't make any mistake, I despise Cheminade)... After all, now that I know I've lost "my" candidate and that my second round candidate is doomed with a failed strategy...

So, Boutin is out. Morin is set to drop this week too.
Even Villepin seems to have lost some enthusiasm.
I don't believe Lepage wants really to be a candidate.
And Nihous really seems to have difficulties in gathering signatures from mayors.
After, maybe we'll have only Dupont-Aignan, Arthaud and Poutou as small candidates.


The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

And so, you know, how can I pick a candidate ?!?
I'm completely lost in the current political landscape.
Sarkozy is now a weird mix of rightist populism, of so-called colbertism and of some stupid reaganesque policies.
Boutin, who is a bit mad on a personal level, has dropped her bid.
Bayrou is a loony, who has betrayed his old political tradition and is unable to decide on anything.
Hollande is personally respectable, but is backed by all those leftists (please read "gauchistes", not "hommes et femmes de gauche"), especially the young ones, that are a real moral danger: Hamon, Bruno Julliard, Hammadie, Lienemann, Delanoë, Lebranchu, Aubry, Lang, Dray, Mamère, Joly, Duflot, Contassot, etc. Without any money, the left will only change things on social matters and I can't vote for that.

So, yeah, I'm now a zombie, like in Atlasia
It has no real importance anymore. President Hollande doesn't need me

[big bad fab]

Morin is about to rally Sarkozy, without being able to influence his plans: Morin has really lost everything...

Some around Borloo wonder why Bayrou doesn't phone Borloo...
Imagine... It would a real event... But Bayrou is Bayrou: alone and proud. But alone.


Unfortunately, this election is as boring as anticipated, whatever we try to do

I'll probably soon switch to trying to predict Hollande's government and to try to assess who will lead the right after the big defeat.

[big bad fab]

Bâârfff....
Too lazy (and busy) to answer now. And I shouldn't have let my sadness reach this forum (again): each time, it's a mistake, because I want to write quickly, just let out some angry notations (not especially designed to be coherent...) and my English is bad

Anyway, just one thing: I make a difference between leftist governments and leftist ideas. On education, even Peyrefitte in 1968-69 (yes, this Peyrefitte) and of course VGE in 74-81 had leftist ideas. So, that's not just a question of political parties (on education, I prefer Chevènement than Chatel, without any doubt).

And just another one: I don't compare current plans for euthanasia of old/sick people and Swedish euthanasia in the 1930s, but the latter and the new "choices" offered to future parents and the fact that medical employees of some labs are those who pick which child will be born... For me, it's frightening. And, still, it's something both capitalists (because there is money and because controlling birth is good as "time is money") and leftists (because each human being is now a little God) agree on.


In real news, Hervé Morin will probably announce that he gives up tomorrow.

[big bad fab]

In real news, Hervé Morin will probably announce that he gives up tomorrow.

The only candidate I could support non-ironically? If Nihous doesn't run, I guess I'll be forced to vote Melenchon.

Mélenchon is only a very pale imitation of Great Georges .

I don't know if Nihous is really serious in his quest of the 500 signatures. We'll see, but it seems harder than expected for him.

[big bad fab]

Here are the graphs based on Fabien's tracker, if someone still cares.





If Sarkozy can't get above 45% within one month, he's most probably screwed.

Lately, there is a symetry emerging between Hollande and Bayrou, and between Sarkozy and Le Pen.
I don't think it's only visual.
Though, of course, electors are not switching directly from one to another.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #42 - 20 February 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   30,56
Sarkozy   25,22
Le Pen   17,13
Bayrou   12,42
Mélenchon   8,15
Joly   2,82
Villepin   1,59
(Morin)   0,12
Lepage   0,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
(Boutin)   0,10
Nihous   0,17
Arthaud   0,39
Poutou   0,25
(Chevènement)   0,04
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   57,20
Sarkozy   42,80

See my blog for a recent graph of IFOP daily poll.
There is now a symetry between Bayrou and Hollande, and between Sarkozy and Le Pen (and even Joly and Mélenchon...).

[big bad fab]

Beware, I've updated the tracker, because of an IPSOS poll published very late yesterday (in fact, it was in the medias only this morning) that wasn't included.
Done, with a spread between 0 and 0.1

[big bad fab]

BREAKING !

Frédéric Nihous has dropped his bid for the presidency.
He has rallied Sarkozy.

This will probably "free" some mayors, who will be able to sign for Le Pen or Dupont-Aignan.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING !

Frédéric Nihous has dropped his bid for the presidency.
He has rallied Sarkozy.

This will probably "free" some mayors, who will be able to sign for Le Pen or Dupont-Aignan.

Will he even give Sarkozy any boost in the polls? He's polling pretty far behind.

It was an ironical post

[big bad fab]

LOL@Sarko. He will end up as the only candidate of the right, get a half-decent score but have no room to grow on second round.

Please go to my blog: new graphs on vote transfers from one round to the other.

Graphs understandable even for English-speaking readers

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #43 - 27 February 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   


      

Hollande   30,09
Sarkozy   25,65
Le Pen   17,09
Bayrou   12,14
Mélenchon   8,3
Joly   2,81
Villepin   1,71
(Morin)   0,07
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,68
(Boutin)   0,07
(Nihous)   0,19
Arthaud   0,4
Poutou   0,27
(Chevènement)   0,01
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   56,91
Sarkozy   43,09

[big bad fab]

Just been watching Francois in Lyon tonight. I remember how awful a candidate I thought he'd be, i'm glad i've been proved wrong!

Ditto, same here.

It's not because he's good at meetings and speeches: he constantly pushes his voice too high just to say empty things and to say "en même temps" (remember "p'têt ben qu'oui, p'têt ben qu'non"). He's a bit ridiculous, with always the same gestures with his hands.
(make no mistake: Sarkozy also is imiatating himself constantly and is ridiculous in 2012)
He's ridiculous, but kindly ridiculous and that's also why it works.

It's just that Hollande has taken the right positioning from the beginning: a "normal" candidate for a "normal presidency. Someone who will appease, someone who won't create problems in everyday life (whatever the things he really does after the election... as not really tackling problems will be a bad thing for French people)

He is awaited for, it's just his time. And so everybody sees him as good because people wants to put good feelings on him.

[big bad fab]

Let's say he is mostly empty. Another example yesterday and today with the taxes on life insurance contracts.
It's always fine-tuning, with, in many cases, flip-flopping BUT, granted, at a low scale, so not really damageable for him.
Tactically, it's very well done, but, frankly, he is doing almost as few promises as Bayrou
And really not big ones.
It's better in a way, I agree, but we can't say he is leading a grand élan

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

[big bad fab]

Wow... thanks, Antonio

But... well, I can't concur... I've just... forgotten to watch
That's the unbelievable truth, I'm not kiddin'

[big bad fab]

It's the opposite: your acknowledgement of Sarkozy being not so bad was just the only good news of the day

[big bad fab]

Sarkozy seems to close the gap rather quickly in the 1st round.

CSA and Opinionway have him only 2% behind Hollande now.

Yep, but there are IPSOS, BVA, LH2 that are contrarians. And it's not so clear in daily IFOP.
Go to my blog

[big bad fab]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

[big bad fab]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...

56.69
Don't forget some old ones are dropped.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #45 - 12 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,53
Sarkozy   26,06
Le Pen   16,78
Bayrou   12,38
Mélenchon   8,74
Joly   2,73
Villepin   1,37   
Lepage   0,6
Dupont-Aignan   0,76   
(Nihous)   0,03
Arthaud   0,52
Poutou   0,48   
Cheminade   0,03


Hollande   56,69
Sarkozy   43,31


BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ?

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on!
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards !

[big bad fab]

CSA tonight (see my blog ) has Sarkozy and Hollande on a par at 28.
I've already noticed that CSA is surprisingly close to the average this round (a bit like ARG having become more reliable in 2012 ).

Sarkozy has bounced a bit just because he has stolen votes from Le Pen, that's very simple. And, as Hollande has lost 1 or 2 points to Mélenchon, there are neck and neck.
When you see the changes in the transfers from 1st to 2nd rounds, it's very clear.

Antonio, it's not just about Villepinte. Of course a bit, just because of the media buzz (well, Le Bourget wasn't really a great, great speech with many new ideas and, still, it had an effect, not per se, but because of the noise and the "story" in the medias).

But the election hasn't really changed.
I repeat and repeat again that Sarkozy has a strategy of trying to win "out of the people", whereas this election will be won "out of the centre".

[big bad fab]

Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.

Blame the medias
But I think IPSOS will soon publish another one.
Unfortunately, I'm not sur Math will come back to tell us which polls are in the making, since the article he stole from my blog some weeks ago

Anyway, I must acknowledge something is troubling in the IFOP poll of today...

[big bad fab]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

[big bad fab]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...