France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Wednesday and still no tracker... Shame on you, Fab !

I'm not really pushed by the tempo of your graphs .
Well, I was riding this morning and I'm going to swim this afternoon and it was one of my son's birthday at lunchtime: I'm really busy, you know .

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #13 - 1 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

1 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,67
Mélenchon   5,13
Chevènement   0,41
Aubry   26,31
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   7,04
Borloo   8,14
Villepin   3,01
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,55
Sarkozy   23,49
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   17,36
      

      

1 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,44
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,28
Hollande   28,50
Joly   6,25
Bayrou   6,67
Borloo   7,99
Villepin   2,86
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,53
Sarkozy   22,95
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   16,69

      

      

1 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,53
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,33
PS   27,62
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   6,82
Borloo   8,05
Villepin   2,92
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,54
Sarkozy   23,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   16,96




No big change, with no new poll.

The only slightly significant move is from Le Pen to Sarkozy.

Basically, we are close to the 1988 result, with Barre's electorate split between Borloo, Villepin and Bayrou.
And, of course, the problem for Sarkozy is that HE is the incumbent...

And here is the tracker for 2nd round hypotheses, from the 13th of June to the 1st of August:

Aubry   57,75   57,76   57,79   57,86   58,00   58,00   55,08   54,99
Sarkozy   42,25   42,24   42,21   42,14   42,00   42,00   44,92   45,01

Hollande   59,97   59,98   59,98   59,99   60,00   58,00   57,42   57,40
Sarkozy   40,03   40,02   40,02   40,01   40,00   42,00   42,58   42,60

Beware, though, we have only 5 polls on second rounds on the entire period...

[big bad fab]

Too sunny around here...

BTW, you haven't waited for midnight (CET)

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #14 - 8 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

8 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,10
Poutou   0,63
Mélenchon   5,00
Chevènement   0,44
Aubry   26,23
Joly   6,13
Bayrou   7,11
Borloo   8,10
Villepin   2,93
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,69
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   17,45
      

      

8 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,08
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   5,02
Chevènement   0,30
Hollande   28,38
Joly   6,20
Bayrou   6,75
Borloo   7,98
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,56
Sarkozy   23,11
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   16,80


      

      

8 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,09
Poutou   0,49
Mélenchon   5,01
Chevènement   0,36
PS   27,52
Joly   6,17
Bayrou   6,89
Borloo   8,03
Villepin   2,87
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   23,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   17,06





No big change, with no new poll.

Le Pen slightly on the rise again, but she is now far below Sarkozy who is almost in good shape in comparison to his popularity ratings.

Still a 2 points difference between Hollande and Aubry: the PS should really think about this: it's pretty stable and it's also the case in the second round.


23 minutes late, Antonio: be merciful, O Good Lord !

[big bad fab]

BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

[big bad fab]

Well, it could have been worse. Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...

BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama.

Ah yes... we've both forgotten that my blue avatar is French and your red one was American !!!

You know that I'm closer to Lieberman, Clark, Nunn or Warner or even Gore.
I could vote for Romney, but I'm sure that, in 2008, I'd have voted for Obama (because of Palin) and note for the Mac...

No, don't worry, I'm not a tea-partier ! (and Boutin isn't a tea-partier either ).

[big bad fab]

As promised !

Aubry :


Hollande :



Clearly one is stronger as the other, but apart from Sarko and the PS candidates the variations seem mostly statistical noise.

I don't entirely agree: there is a trend for Hulot-Joly and Villepin, and there was something towards Mélenchon and then backwards (though I don't understand what ).

The socialists are really good at the moment, though Sarkozy is in a surprisingly good shape.

This new story with the public debt crisis and a new stock exchange krach is good for Sarkozy, sure, but Hollande has well reacted: he is again serious and swift. Of course, nobody is listening in early August, but Aubry is badly silent (or contra tempore, with an article in Libération that was written before S&P's stupid decision).

I don't understand why Sarkozy hasn't planned a referendum on the new budgetary rules... It seems that a UMP congressman has a t last proposed it.
The trap for the left would be very good.
Of course, there would be the risk of a 2005 scenario: the "people" against the elite. Good for Mélenchon but for Panzergirl too.

Anyway, fine graphs again, though a bit more suspense would be good .

[big bad fab]

I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

We can say that I almost hate them . I don't deny it.

Maybe it's because I have really "practiced" them in Paris some years ago: they were so intolerant, so inhumane in day-to-day work, really... and so utterly ideological and unrealistic (that's not a caricature)... Delanoë (a man that I really dislike) hasn't made the same mistake during his second term: he wasn't forced to give them big portfolios and he sidelined them...

This personal experience, and their positioning on society problems, it's of course too much for me.

Now, politically and electorally speaking, they are in fact misunderstood and, when they win, it's by default. Many people in France still think they are just here to avoid pollution and fight against hunters...
The party is far more on the left than its electorate (though Joly may well find a better coherence between the two, in a way).

Cohn-Bendit is the only one who tried to make them grow up, but it seems as though they are unable to do it.
With a rejuvenated PS and a less aggressive Parti de Gauche, no need for Greens.

As for decentralization, that's indeed a real specific point.
But if a European and regionalist party emerges in the center-right with Borloo, they could be stripped from this specificity !
Errr... yeah, I know, no chance at all, eh ?

[big bad fab]

For the first time, Aubry has called for Daddy (Jacques Delors).
He will be in a sort of studying group on economic and financial crisis...

So, already panic mode for Aubry ?
Well, even if nobody listens in August, Hollande has been indoubtedly better in the last week: his reaction seemed serious and well-informed, swift and quiet at the same time.
She was late and wrote things already out-of-date a week ago.

I think she is wrong to waste Big Dad so early.
She must wait a bit for Hollande to make a mistake or two. He is the one whose fall every media will wait for, now.
The PS "summer university" in La Rochelle may well be better for Aubry, as the apparatus is still controlled by her close friends.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #15 - 15 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

15 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,06
Poutou   0,58
Mélenchon   4,92
Chevènement   0,48
Aubry   26,21
Joly   6,11
Bayrou   7,10
Borloo   8,06
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,61
Sarkozy   23,80
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,62
      

      

15 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,04
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   4,95
Chevènement   0,32
Hollande   28,33
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   6,77
Borloo   7,91
Villepin   2,77
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,19
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,02
      

      

15 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,05
Poutou   0,43
Mélenchon   4,94
Chevènement   0,38
PS   27,48
Joly   6,16
Bayrou   6,90
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   2,80
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   23,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,26


Only statistical noise this week.
Unfortunately, it will be worse next week .
Pollsters are asleep, polled people on beaches and political maniacs are angry.

Le Point has a funny article on people said to support Aubry in Lozère whereas they support Hollande.
In fact, all the formerly "frêchist" federations are supporting Hollande it seems.
And this is these federations which now accuse Aubryst of shenanigans and manipulations... !

In fact, no socialist has really been courageous enough to tackle the Frêche problem until the very end. And Aubry, like the others (Hollande especially) have never seriously tried to tackle the Marseilles problem either.

The only one who is coherent on this is Montebourg and you see how successful he is currently inside the party .

Anyway, this support of Languedoc-Roussillon local PS federations for Hollande is a big thing, as the turnout there may be high and as they were more Royal supporters in the past (by default in a way).

[big bad fab]

We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one .

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

[big bad fab]

I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

We can say that I almost hate them . I don't deny it.

Maybe it's because I have really "practiced" them in Paris some years ago: they were so intolerant, so inhumane in day-to-day work, really... and so utterly ideological and unrealistic (that's not a caricature)... Delanoë (a man that I really dislike) hasn't made the same mistake during his second term: he wasn't forced to give them big portfolios and he sidelined them...

This personal experience, and their positioning on society problems, it's of course too much for me.

Now, politically and electorally speaking, they are in fact misunderstood and, when they win, it's by default. Many people in France still think they are just here to avoid pollution and fight against hunters...
The party is far more on the left than its electorate (though Joly may well find a better coherence between the two, in a way).

Cohn-Bendit is the only one who tried to make them grow up, but it seems as though they are unable to do it.
With a rejuvenated PS and a less aggressive Parti de Gauche, no need for Greens.

As for decentralization, that's indeed a real specific point.
But if a European and regionalist party emerges in the center-right with Borloo, they could be stripped from this specificity !
Errr... yeah, I know, no chance at all, eh ?

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/01012354582-carnet-de-deroute-du-camp-hulot

An interesting article in Libération with an account from someone inside the Hulot campaign.
Of course, he is more favourable towards Hulot, but he also criticizes him.

And, what is important is about Mamère, Farbias, Coronado, all those old "Green Khmers": that what I wanted to underline when I talked about the very bad side of the Greens.

(BTW, funny to see the name of this guy: Orphelin ! LOL)

[big bad fab]

We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one .

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...

Great ! Even if it's Harris, LH2, BVA, CSA, we'll be happy

[big bad fab]

The problem is that such poll will crush all others in terms of ponderation and we'll see sudden and enormous swings... If it's an outlier, it will screw the tracker for a long time...

Just until the second week of September: afterwards, it'll be normalized until the end.

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 18-19 August 2011, sample 1003

Do you wish left's victory ?
Yes 53
No 37

Do you forecast left's victory if the election were today ?
Yes 52
No 38

Though the last question is weird (forecast but for today ), this high level, equal to wishes in fact, is a very strong point for the left.
Anti-sarkozysm is very well entrenched. I don't see how Sarkozy can win.

All the more when you see this:

Would left do better than right in face of the crisis ?
Not better 62
Better 29
(again, a weird question, when you can't answer "worse" , but that would only reinforce the result)

Do you wish X's victory or not ?
Hollande 47 / 50
Aubry 39 / 58
Sarkozy 29 / 68
Bayrou 25 / 71
Borloo 22 / 71
Royal 22 / 75
Villepin 20 / 75
Le Pen 17 / 81
Joly 14 / 79
Valls 13 / 71
Mélenchon 11 / 75
Montebourg 10 / 75

Rejection of smaller candidates is amazing, comapred to Sarkozy's level ! (Borloo, MValls, Montebourg and especially Joly, really very high in negatives)

Of course, the main result is that the socialist duet seems really difficult to beat for Sarkozy and, again and again, Hollande is clearly higher than Aubry.
She had 2 weeks of glory in late June, early July, and has returned to worse levels or simply stood by since then, while Hollande has kept going up, maintaining the gap between them.

Some Aubry's aides are beginning to say that polls are false: they are among people outside the party... but "make no mistake, among those who will really vote, she is far better and even higher than Hollande".
Well, sure, but, consistently, Hollande has been better among "socialists" than among "leftists". And, well, I believed these primaries should have been wide open !
After all, polls of 2006 were pretty accurate about Royal's rise inside the PS.
Of course, one can argue that the polls created the phenomenon, not that the rise was first and the polls second... but it's political reality and momentum that count.

[big bad fab]

I've already posted some of them and, well, wishes of victory (and differences with forecasts) are usually good predictors of real results.
The problem is indeed that this poll is quite disappointing in its structure. Some young recruits trying to keep working in August, while big bosses are on the beaches ?


Amazing to hear French medias (especially TVs and radios: it's not about political trend of each media, just about their level of smear-loving) still asking how the possible drop of (penal) charges against DSK could have an impact on PS primaries.

As rightist, I'd be very glad if DSK could put a little mess of his own, but, come on, let's be serious: Hollande and Aubry are now engaged in a duel and almost all leftist voters want only to kill Sarkozy and very well know that DSK is definitely out...

[big bad fab]

Why can't PS leaders shut up about DSK ?

Now, it's like he is a "virgin" again... Well, if you believe Vance Junior is right to drop charges, you should believe him when he says there has been sexual relations and these were likely not wanted by one side...
Frankly, I feel people (and many leftists and socialists too) are now really fed up with this story and with DSK: the backlash may be here for the PS, with the medias trying to keep on this dirty story which they think still help them to sell and so exerting pressure on socialist leaders to speak and speak again about DSK and his poor lil' family.

But why do they agree to be a part of the medias' game (yesterday, some said it was the most important news of the day, above Libya... sigh...) ?
I understand for loony Michèle Sabban or even for loyal Pupponi. I can even understand for Cambadélis, for bad reasons, as what we call a "betrayal" must be hard for him to swallow when he meets DSK again...
But Aubry, Désir, Fabius, Le Guen, Royal, even Hollande (though, again, he is far more careful than Aubry) ?

[big bad fab]

My tracker tonight
I'm back to work and a bit busy...

First numbers from a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 17-22 August 2011, sample 1320 RVs

Among leftists / among socialists:
Hollande 42 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30
Royal 9 / 7
Montebourg 5 / ?
Valls 5 / ?
Baylet ? / ?

To be continued... but, Hollande already appears as still gaining ground against both Aubry and Royal (who is now below double-digits ).

[big bad fab]

NPA was said to go beyond the old LCR (Krivine's and Besancenot's party), but is now basically reduced to Krivine's old results.
LCR was more or less a "68" trotskyism, from young students who wanted to have an ideological reference to pin on their "bobo" and postmodern rebellion (some others became so-called Maoïsts, others "situationnistes" and some others just Greens).

LO was more a real trotskyite party, though the most loyal to IVth Internationale's ideas was the PCI of Lambert (Boussel was his real name) and then Gluckstein.
LO had good results only because Laguiller eventually did well on TV. It was the same for Besancenot.

LO will have Nathalie Arthaud, a teacher, as a presidential candidate. NPA will have Philippe Poutou, a trade-unionist worker. Both are in fact unoriginal far-leftists, not at all trotskyists.

The PG also gained some former supporters of Chevènement (François Autain, senator) and some trade-unionists (Claude Debons, from the CFDT's left), but not much, and a minority of former LCR which push the idea of unity of all trends at the left of the PS (it was the "unitaire" wing of LCR around Christian Picquet). Let's add also that Martine Billard, a former Green deputy from Paris has joined the PG.
But Mélenchon has been unable to rally the whole movement of Chevènement, or "red-greens" like Clémentine Autain, or the whole left of the PS (of course not in the case of Emmanuelli and Hamon, but even not Quilès or Lienemann).

Mélenchon will be the candidate of the PG and the PCF, and the whole FG.

The former "lambertiste" PCI, now POI, will probably try to have again Gérard Schivardi as a presidential candidate (though gathering 500 signatures from mayors will be very hard). But again, it's more now a "classical" far-leftist movement, against economic liberalism, against globalization, against the USA, against the EU, etc. Nothing fundamentally trostkyist is left here.

As usual, everybody talks about "unity", but nobody really wants it if it means no candidate from their own party... LO has always been completely and fiercely independent. The POI too.
Besancenot, despite his image, has never really tried to be unitarian.
And Mélenchon is too megalomaniac to drop.

So, Arthaud, Poutou and Mélenchon for sure.
Maybe Schivardi too.

We may also say that the Greens (Europe Ecologie more widely) have now a candidate, Eva Joly, who is arguably at the left of the PS (or of many of its members), especially if Hollande wins the PS primary (which should be in fact a left primary).

[big bad fab]

Oops, I was typing while Hash was typing too... Well, you've got more answers for free .

[big bad fab]

So, DSK back in?

Nope. Candidacies for the PS primary are closed.
And I don't think that any candidate would want a support or advice from him.
And when they are back to power in May 2012 after 10 years of frustration, there will be so many people to reward with ministerial portfolios, inside the PS and outside it, that DSK won't be welcome.

Though Aubry has said that she salutes him "affectionately".
Which is quite risky, if I may write such a stupid joke .
To be serious, maybe Aubry is more enthusiastic in her reaction because she fears that DSK may well disturb her more than Hollande, because Hollande was already candidate before the 14th of May, Day of Infamy, and because the biggest "traitors" in the DSK camp are behind Aubry (especially Cambadélis). So, maybe she tries to prevent him from talking too much when back in France...

[big bad fab]

Complete numbers from a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 17-22 August 2011, sample 1320 RVs

Among leftists / among socialists:
Hollande 42 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30
Royal 9 / 7
Montebourg 5 / 3
Valls 5 / 3
Baylet 0 / 0
none of them 11 / 7

Among Front de Gauche voters / among Greens (Harris don't say how much people it means... the samples should be tiny):
Hollande 30 / 30
Aubry 21 / 30
Royal 14 / 7
Montebourg 13 / 4
Valls 4 / 13
Baylet 0 / 0
none of them 19 / 16

Funny to see Valls result among Greens. What is noticeable is that Aubry may not be able to count on more leftist people to compensate for her bad results among socialists.

The most interesting numbers are from the 10% of the sample who say they will "certainly" vote in the primaries.
- This level of "certainty" is at 13% among men but only 8% among women. Hollande is far stronger among men.
- At 15% among people of more than 50 years old, 10% among 35-49 people, only 7% among 25-34 and 1% among 18-24. No big suprise here, of course, but the problem for Aubry is that it's exactly where Hollande is strong that people are more certain to GOTV.
- At 12% among "inactive" people (not only unemployed, but especially retirees), 10% among CSP+ and 8% among CSP-. Again Hollande is far stronger among inactive people.

I'm sorry to say, poll after poll, that Hollande is really stronger, but that's what numbers say .
(my deep belief that Sarkozy is doomed should persuade readers of my will to be impartial in analyses... I indeed hate Aubry, but she is indeed really weaker)

There are still many potential problems for Hollande: Royal may eventually try to harm him (though she seems to hate Aubry even more... which is understandable when you go back to Reims, 2008), Banon's mother and lawyer may try to bring him in the affair, etc.

But even DSK saying he supports Aubry could now be a problem for her...
And she has already wasted Daddy Delors, in a way.
And his campaign team seems able to avoid any personal attack, while she has already launched some small critics on TV recently.

Really, Hollande emerges from the summer even stronger, which is a surprise.
Of course, everything can change after TV debates and, what is more, between the 2 rounds (9th and 16th of October): if he is ahead but not so close to 50%, the momentum may be broken for him. That'd be an opportunity for Aubry.


BTW, 10% of people who would "certainly" GOTV in the PS primaries, that would mean 4 million voters... I can't believe it would be the case: that would be a great success.
Contrary to what many journalists say (especially leftist ones), 1 million would already be a success, I think.
Legitimacy will be an important thing for the socialist candidate, not in front of the whole French electorate, but inside the PS.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #16 - 22 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

22 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,95
Poutou   0,55
Mélenchon   4,88
Chevènement   0,54
Aubry   25,87
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   7,08
Borloo   8,13
Villepin   2,60
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,62
Sarkozy   24,02
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,94

      

      

22 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,92
Poutou   0,28
Mélenchon   4,94
Chevènement   0,32
Hollande   28,06
Joly   6,24
Bayrou   6,65
Borloo   7,84
Villepin   2,65
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,56
Sarkozy   23,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,51

      

      

22 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   4,92
Chevènement   0,41
PS   27,19
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   6,82
Borloo   7,96
Villepin   2,63
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,65
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,68



Only statistical noise this week again, but, before PS summer university in La Rochelle this week-end, we'll probably have a poll.

What we can say before this new phase in the presidential contest is
that Sarkozy is still deeply weak,
that Hollande is stronger than Aubry against him,
that Le Pen seems to have peaked but is still disturbingly strong for Sarkozy and even for some parts of the left,
that the small candidates on the far-left and on the right are very small,
that a big bunch of people in the center seem not to know who to follow, the Greens, Bayrou or Borloo,
that the PS should win but that there is something vaguely uncertain about this, floating in the air...
because of the past defeats, probably, because things seem more tense between Aubry and Hollande, because DSK's ghost is still very well alive, because the crisis is big and have the potential to have a big impact on the political contest (though that could be either way).

Enjoy the coming French presidential election .

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for BFM TV-RMC-20 Minutes, 22-23 August 2011, 863 RVs out of a whole sample of 1006

14% of people certain to vote in the PS primary
15% of people likely to vote in the PS primary
(that sounds big, even bigger than the recent Harris poll)

Among these 2 categories / among socialists (we don't know the sample... it should be very tiny):
Hollande 37 / 45
Aubry 31 / 39
Royal 16 / 10
Montebourg 5 / 3
Valls 4 / 2
Baylet <1 / <1
none of them 3 / <1
don't know 4 / 1

Hollande is lower than in Harris, but the trend is the same: he is up and Aubry is down (they were at 41 among socialists in the previous CSA poll, just after her declaration of candidacy).
But, again, let's be careful as the sample is very tiny.

And, with only 2 names, Hollande's lead isn't so big:
Hollande 49 / 51
Aubry 45 / 47

Hollande 71 / 81
Royal 25 / 18

Aubry 66 / 77
Royal 29 / 22

They have also some questions on DSK:
among the whole sample / among socialists:
wish he is candidate in the PS primary 23 / 25
wish he supports another candidate 19 / 27
wish he doesn't take part in the political debate 53 / 43

Not all the socialists have burried DSK, after all, though it's pretty divided. Amazing that they don't realize that would now be worse than anything else if he tries to "help" in one way or another. He is le boulet, now.


Aubry / Hollande / Royal 26 / 27 / 19
Sarkozy 26 / 26 / 26
Le Pen 15 / 15 / 15
Borloo 8 / 8 / 8
Bayrou 7 / 7 / 9
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon 7 / 6.5 / 9
Villepin 4 / 3 / 4
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Arthaud 0.5 / 1 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 1

Well, CSA is still having Le Pen lower than other pollsters (they were so much criticized for their failure in 2007, after having hugely overestimated Le Pen Sr).
Aubry is al most on par with Hollande here and Royal, for the first time in 2011, would make it to the 2nd round .
Mélenchon is still higher in CSA polls (maybe you can link this to Panzergirl's relatively low scores).
No surprise otherwise: the landscape seems to be pretty stable.
They haven't tested Nihous: shame on them !

Let's hope that IFOP or IPSOS will soon make one of their own .

[big bad fab]

Remember that Aubry was exactly equal to Hollande the last time...
And that Sarkozy was already high (26 and 27) in July...

So, with CSA, we have to be careful not to misinterpret...
The current trends (Hollande stronger, Sarkozy on the rise but very slowly, Le Pen down but still high) aren't invalidated at all.