French Regionals 2010

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...or maybe wait for the elections to be hold, hey, not a bad idea!

Well, climate is pretty nasty, this ambiance plus polls that continue to say that 'everything is won!', plus stakes that don't seem present at all, in an ambiance of rather resignation, could let a lot of independent/left-leaning at home.

Wouldn't be surprised of something around 45% turnout by now, good for UMP and EE then.

All of this while debates are clearly for the right, with a not clear FN, an old Le Pen, and UMP chasing on the right of the right. I maintain there could be surprises, maybe significant ones.

Well, at least that is an analysis, instead of 'polls say, period'.

But my analysis is that the abstention, even if it hurts the left, will first hurt... the UMP !

Because it seems over and because some of the PS regional barons aren't so bad (Rousset, Queyranne, Le Drian, Malvy, Patriat, Beauvais, even Huchon).

Because many of the voters who were former FN voters and Sarkozy voters in 2007 but who weren't from the left "sociologically" will abstain. An dthose who are "sociologically" leftists will vote for Mélenchon and the PCF.
Many mainstream rightists will abstain because of failed or uncompleted "reforms" and because of Frédéric Mitterrand or Michel Charasse.
Many MPF, DLR or former Pasqua voters will abstain, now that they don't have "their" lists.

Plus, with a Sarkozy, when the elections are won, he is adored. When the elections begin to be lost, he will be hated inside the right and the revenge will translate in the ballot boxes.

(Myself, I'm a mainstream rightist, a "légitimiste" one, we can say; but I'm really fed up and I will hesitate until the end; fortunately, there isn't anything in the center-right or between the UMP and the FN; so, my vote isn't lost for the UMP, but who knows... )

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Apart from that, the Greens are here for "another way to do politics"...

Ton abréviation NTFB n'est pas très heureuse... Cela fait un peu "Nique ta foutue Bretagne"...
Désolé, ce n'est pas de très bon goût, mais je n'ai pas pu m'empêcher...
Depuis NTM, tout ce qui commence par NT... est un peu problématique !

It seems as if there was a little awareness on the right that the result could be a disaster, and so maybe a lil' more "activity".
I'm afraid the latest Sarkozy's so-called "coup de pouce" will again dump the last right chances... By trying a so old trick 3 days before the polling day...

In 3 years, Sarkozy, who brought a real plus in electoral terms for the right, has become a liability and a burden.
That's amazing.
But the pace of medias and of political life has fastened, so I guess it's logical so these very swift changes.
Even in 1982-1985, Mitterrand wasn't personally an overweight for the left: he was just down like all the left. And thanks to cohabitation, he restored his asset status.

[big bad fab]

Now, 2 questions:

1. Will Ségolène be the first one of the left in France ?
That wouldn't be important for the rest of the left, as she is out now for 2012 (and as it will be very hard for her to mix her list with EE for the 2 nd round), BUT it will be important for her, because she'd find there a reason to keep on fighting against Aubry until the end (and Holland and DSK may help her, to weaken Aubry...)

2. Why Jean-Marie LePen wouldn't be a candidate again in 2012 ?
He has a bigger result than his Panzer Girl...

And 1 plea:
SPLIT THE UMP, GODDAM IT !
One Sarkozy to steal FN votes, one Borloo to kill definitely the MoDem and avoid some centrist thinking the Greens are just "little birds defenders".
(big sigh...)

That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Oh, and one big LOL with Frëche's result and EE, FG and this stupid Mandroux below 10

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2,7% for peasants in Bretagne: I knew I should have voted for them

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- Gollnisch has a disappointing result for the FN in Rhône-Alpes, if you look at Franche-Comté, Champagne, Hte Normandie, Picardie, even Centre and Basse-Normandie, and of course PACA and NPdC.
It's lost for him now inside the FN. Definitely I mean.

- Yep, Malvy is, logically, ahead of Ségolène.
Will DSK fight until the end ? I hope so... Fabius is here to help him. I hope Hollande will do it also, except if Aubry promises Matignon to him... (that would be smart from her and, in that case, well, it would be hard for DSK, as Delanoë is already out and behind Aubry and as Royal will steal some of the votes DSK would normally win)

- Come on, Hash, Troadec is a dangerous lunatic, he's not the Parti Breton, at all...

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In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

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My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

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In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

Not really, since some FN voters are leftists who prefer PS to UMP. Not much in Alsace, but still...

Please note "some" in my post.
Leftist voters of the FN and real far-rightists will keep on voting for Binder.
Alsace isn't Ardennes, Nord, Oise, be careful.

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My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .

Yes, remember for the PS that after wonderful 2004 came not-so-good 2005 with the division over the EU, Le Mans and in 2006 came the fights between Royal the Maverick and the elephants.

But there isn't any big event that will be good for the right in the next 3 years...

Reforming the pensions ?
Cutting public spendings ?
Facing a new banlieues revolt ?
Facing agricultural crises ?

So far, so good

And Royal is down now. And DSK is lazy. And Delanoë only aimed at a big post after 2012. And Hollande isn't big enough alone to beat Aubry.

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Yeah... Be wise... Be careful...
Come on, I know that a political momentum nowadays changes in 6 months, of course.

But I also know that the fundamental political landscape is now very bad for the right in France until 2012.
That all those Le Pen voters (from 1984 to 2007, he was never below 10 % !) who were stolen by the UMP in 2007 (presidential and legislative elections) are now even angrier at the right than before as they fell betrayed.

I also know thatthe villepinistes will be very harsh and that Copé and all the other Chirac-Juppé "babies" (Baroin, Pécresse) will objectively gain from a Sarkozy defeat in 2012, just because it will be better to fight an incumbent and ageing Aubry in 2017.

And the big problem is now that France will soon follow Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and... the UK, as there isn't much money left.
The time is now at cutting public spendings, really...
How can Sarkozy prepare for 2012 without money ? By turning to Berlusconi behaviour ?
He may do it, but a large part of the reasonable would revolt. And Fillon, Woerth et alii would probably go.

No, really, it's over.
The only way for Sarkozy to win would have been a divided PS. And I doubt it will be the case.
Sarkozy lost 2012 when Royal conceded defeat after Reims.

[big bad fab]

That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Well, I guess you feel like I do for Obama and the USA... Sarko also gave much hope to the french right (but admit that for the moment he has done more things than Obama ).

Apart from local State offices (which are currently shuffled in a big way), everything has failed or is so light that it doesn't count:
- universities,
- lycées,
- spending cuts (LOL),
- health and hospitals,
- agriculture,
- constitutional reform,
- housing,
- local councils,...

The word of "reform" itself is now a negative one in France.
And we are addicted to public spending. Even the Swedish managed to put an end to the public spending growth.

I dream of a crisis government with Juppé, Woerth, Courson, Lambert, Arthuis, etc, doing the bad work for 3 years and being trounced in elections, but returning triumphantly 5 years later.
But, even if a responsible government acted well, French people wouldn't acknowledge the reality.
They want a 2nd Jospin-Aubry-DSK play, when money was wasted rather than putting an end to public debt and fiscal imbalances...

An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

[big bad fab]

An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

France is the most right-wing country in western Europe (apart from perhaps Ireland, but Ireland is so different that a comparison is impossible).

Don't just look at weak unions and at people who hold the presidency or the prime-ministership.

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Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.

I´m just asking, because in 2004 for example in Aquitaine, the FN candidate ranked 4th in the 1st round behind the UDF candidate, but it was the FN candidate who advanced to the second round.

And why do some regions have run-offs with 3 candidates and others just with 2 candidates and in the case of Corse even more ? How is that determined how many candidates advance to round 2 ?

Maybe Hashemite knows more about that.

Every list which has more than 10% of votes can make it to the runoff.

And when you have more than 5%, you can merge with another list which has more than 10%.

So, one list with 11% can make it to the runoff, alone, while another one with 16% will merge with one with 8%, and again another one with 13% will merge with one with 30%.

[big bad fab]

Le Télégramme de Brest has published rather interesting maps with results by communes in Bretagne.

One big fact: apart from the NW of Morbihan, everywhere, the abstention is high in rightist strongholds...


Otherwise, no big surprise.
Right is right, left is left, EE is bobo, MoDem is no more than a local thingee and isn't relevant any longer, Laot is rural, Troadec is leftist Breton.

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The language of French politics is very left-wing, yes. Post-Revolution it always has been. But we have to remember that language isn't reality, or rather, that it isn't the only reality. If we judged left-and-right by language alone, we have no choice but to consider SFIO to have been one of the most left-wing political organisations ever to actually win seats in a national legislature - an idea that is more than slightly absurd.

If we look at policy and the parties themselves, then the picture is much more mixed and depends (as is almost always the case) on individual conceptions of left and right. A Marxist (well, a real Marxist, anyway) would have no choice but to consider French politics to be remarkably right-wing for a country in the western half of Europe, while someone from the 'libertarian' Right would have equally little choice in branding it as remarkably left-wing. Someone interested in patterns of state intervention and welfare policies would mostly note paternalism above all else (at least since 1945), someone interested in elections and power structures would note entrenched conservatism with quixotic anti-establishment tendencies. And, I suppose, someone from a minority group would, presumably, be quite likely to take one look at 'racial' discourses in French society and politics and agree with the Marxist, though for totally different reasons.

But this feeds back into the issue of language, I think; though obviously not in the same way. My understanding of what it is to be on the Left is probably different to yours (whoever you happen to be), and yours will not be the same as the first person to read this post after you.

It is a quarter to three in the morning.

Come on... The way immigrants are viewed and dealt with isn't any longer a right/left criteria: many people in France switched directly from blue-collar and popular (and populist..) left to the far-right.

But, more seriously:
Look at the rate of public spendings.
Look at the importance of public employment, not only in government but laso in public businesses.
Look at the age of retirement.
Look at the health system and the way hospitals are funded.
Look at the French agricultural policy (or its leitmotives in European agricultural policy).
Look at the inability of any local politician to slash spendings in any level of local government.
Look at the educational system and the university system, what is learnt and how it is learnt.
Look at the results of left/right polls among teachers.
Look at the results of left/right polls among journalists.
Look at the shelves of bookshops.
Look at the people who take part in TV talkshows.

France isn't a rightist country, that's for sure.
Paternalistic, corporatist, populist, if you want.
Lazily leftist, more probably.

[big bad fab]

- Laot reached 15-20% in many small communes... That's pretty good.

But as soon as you are in a circle of 25 km of great cities or as soon as you are in small cities (look at Vitré...), he is between 0 and 1.5%.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, that's amazing.

- Joncour's result indeed shows how the MoDem has vanished in this election.
And still, nationally, this is a good result for the MoDem !!!

- As for "algues vertes", not in the core "côte de granit rose", because "algues vertes" are an issue more in the south of baie de Lannion, where EE isn't so strong. And in the east of baie de Saint-Brieuc, EE is even weak. In baie de Concarneau and baie de Douarnenez, it's not so clear.
So, this issue, though a mediatic one, doesn't seem to have played a big role for the Greens.
(Troadec has clearly been a nuisance for them, on the contrary; BTW, he's currently hesitating in his appeal to vote: he initially supported Le Drian but with a unified left list; now, he's "thinking").

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What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

- Laurent Hénart is quite well-known now. Maybe there can have been a Mosellan opposition against this Rossinot's protégé.
Longuet: I really don't think so.
But Gandrange, sure !

But the biggest explanation is that, apart from a good result for the FN AND a good result for the MNR (3%), there was a DLR list unofficially supported by Christian Poncelet and which was above 2%.
And, of course, an AEI list with 2.5%.

Lorraine is indeed probably the biggest failure for the UMP, though it is down now for some time in Meuse. Moselle is the most worrying, of course...

- Vendée, Marne, even Aube, aren't very good either...

- Oh and don't forget favourite son Chassaigne of course !

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one

What is amazing is that the 2 most "coherent" and "stable" maps (in relative terms) are those of the PS and... the FN !
No surprise in this as they are the winners of the poll, but still, that's very clear (even EE has a bit troubled map).

[big bad fab]

Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

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Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

[big bad fab]

What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

- Laurent Hénart is quite well-known now. Maybe there can have been a Mosellan opposition against this Rossinot's protégé.
Longuet: I really don't think so.
But Gandrange, sure !

But the biggest explanation is that, apart from a good result for the FN AND a good result for the MNR (3%), there was a DLR list unofficially supported by Christian Poncelet and which was above 2%.
And, of course, an AEI list with 2.5%.

Lorraine is indeed probably the biggest failure for the UMP, though it is down now for some time in Meuse. Moselle is the most worrying, of course...

- Vendée, Marne, even Aube, aren't very good either...

- Oh and don't forget favourite son Chassaigne of course ! And Malvy and Warsmann !

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one

What is amazing is that the 2 most "coherent" and "stable" maps (in relative terms) are those of the PS and... the FN !
No surprise in this as they are the winners of the poll, but still, that's very clear (even EE has a bit troubled map).

[big bad fab]

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Not really, the FN still got a good 18% or so there, which is not good compared to the region but good compared to similar areas in Paris or Lyon. But the FN is really a disparate coalition of diverging, unstable, sometimes even conflicting protest elements; it's hard to do good cross-regional comparisons in elections like these.

I would personally guess that because Marseille is much more pied-noir, but also much more ethnically diverse and economically polarized (Paris has poor areas, but no real inner-city dirt poor areas like the old PCF areas of Marseille's 8th sector; Lyon is even wealthier and middle-class on a general outlook) that the FN vote is a bit more stagnant (though not entirely, this election shows it well. This time you had much stronger showings in UMP areas than in old PCF/PS areas) and is a bit more based on old insecurity/immigration issues than it seems to be in Paris and Lyon (the high vote in Paris-16 is probably not based much on traditional FN issues such as insecurity but an anti-UMP vote from the bourgeois).

unrelated, but amusing results in Longwy: PS 37.53, UMP 13.35, DLR 13.31, PCF 9.61, FN 9.22, GRN 6.18, MNR 2.73, NPA 2.55
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The Nr.1 of the DLR list is from Longwy if I remember well.

No big lessons from the FN result in Paris: its level there isn't really big and Paris has always voted differently.
Sure, the FN in Lyon and Marseille is high even in bourgeois areas, but there is still a hierarchy between popular and bourgeois areas.

On the contrary, I think the FN is pretty stable overall and it's amazing after 25 years.
But, of course, from time to time (and from place to place in one election), it's more the worker electorate that prevails or more the boutiquier electorate.
In this election, the UMP has probably lost on both electorates, partly towards the PS directly, partly towards the FN.

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Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Huh, so close ?

Look at the region, eh.

Champagne-Ardenne was the best chance of gain for the UMP when there was still some hope.
Pretty logical. And a good candidate.

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- Now, will JM Le Pen be candidate again in 2012 ?

I hope so, this is the only way to see the FN down, because the old man will be even more insane than usual.

- A good speech for Royal, a good result for her, but what can she do with her diminishing troops ?

- Nothing can be said from what Hollande said and what strauss-kahniens said tonight....
To be seen....

- A good Fillon, but the UMP has no room to change now... The only way for Sarkozy will be to pray for big economic recovery (LOL) and to try to divide the PS.
But he has already used the trick so much that it's over. Now, he can only appoint DSK as prime minister in 2011 ...

- So, the big battle will be Aubry-DSK-Royal. I hope DSK will win... (Royal can't win)

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Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...

I heard him on TF1. Nothing new, stupid as usual.

The more the night goes, the more... When he listened Duflot speaking he seemed totally lost.

Copé is now the first opponent of Sarkozy, but Fillon may be, after the defeat in 2012, the leader around whom the sarkozysts and some centrists will rally, especially if Copé is depicted as just another Sarkozy (whom he is, despite a bit less lunatic).

Fillon will have a card to play, especially if he isn't PM in 2011-12.

He has an interest to leave high.

[big bad fab]

67.8% for Malvy overall. Haha. Now we need to know which side he was on in the PS civil war circa 2008!

Final results? Bah, he doesn't seem to be a Royalist so far, that would rather be a DSK/Aubry support.

Malvy has always been a Fabiusian (old Mitterrandist).
But I don't think he needed to betray like Bartolone: he must still be a Fabiusian, i.e. Aubry or DSK in 2011 , except that, ideologically, he's closer to Aubry.