Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[TheSaint250]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

[TheSaint250]

Sabato's Crystal has moved AL from Likely R all the way to Leans D.

They'll probably explain their reasoning tomorrow with the usual weekly analysis, but I assume they have good reason to believe Jones is now favored.

Not to derail this, but just wanted to say:

A. While I would keep the race at tossup for the moment, I don't blame them for taking a risky chance and calling the race already. It will most likely be Moore losing anyway.

B. I think they are overestimating Rick Scott's gains as a result of Irma, but who knows? He's won close races before (2018 shaping up to be a D wave year won't help, though).

C. Why is Tennessee not safe R?

Sabato tend to be very liberal in their analysis (small l) especially compared to Cook, meaning they are more open to changes in ratings. Sabato during a campaign will not be afraid to move their ratings a lot, while Cook tends to only want to do it infrequently unless something big happens. Sabato also tries to identify the way a race may be going, whereas Cook tends to just reflect the race right now. Sabato, for example, loves to hold seats at Likely in order to signify that they might be competitive in the future. Finally unlike most other projectors, Sabato isn't afraid to project a race as a flip, whereas Cook, DDHQ, and others tend to need at least some convincing to push  a race for the non-incumbent side.

Strangely, their VA HoD projections were almost entirely counter to the above - the were the most conservative (small c) of the projectors. I chalk this up to less information of the on-the-ground situation.

Ah ok thanks!

[TheSaint250]

“The dress is white and gold! It’s all there in the photo!”

For some reason, I always saw blue and gold.

[TheSaint250]

Ivey shoots down the crazy suggestion to have Strange resign and call a new special election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ivey is a FF

[TheSaint250]

yeah I'd rather Jones stand by his convictions. a Pro-life Democrat could easily lose as well considering conservative GOPers will just find some other reason not to vote for Jones.

Prosecuting the surviving church bombers.

That’s a horrible thing to say.

[TheSaint250]

yeah I'd rather Jones stand by his convictions. a Pro-life Democrat could easily lose as well considering conservative GOPers will just find some other reason not to vote for Jones.

Prosecuting the surviving church bombers.

That’s a horrible thing to say.

There might be enough of those crazy people (KKK members and supporters) who will vote for Moore. In a sane electorate, voters would vote for Jones by a wide margin, who prosecuted the surviving UKA KKK members in Birmingham.

You’re right with this, but you answered the statement that conservatives would find reasons to vote for Moore with prosecuting the church bombers. “Conservative GOPers are a lot greater in number than “KKK members and supporters”

[TheSaint250]

Moore's communications director resigns.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/11/22/john-rogers-roy-moore-communications-director-spokesman-resigns/

Moore to come?

Wow, I just watched the video of Trump calling Doug Jones "terrible on crime". That was the first thing that came out of his mouth when describing Jones. The one thing Jones doesn't want you to forget about him is that he prosecuted Klansmen who killed black children in a terrorist attack.

Whether intentional or not, I guarantee you the dogs heard the whistle, and they are very excited.

Calling a decorated federal prosecutor “soft on crime” in comparison to a twice-disgraced, disbarred pedophile judge sure is something

I’m pretty sure at this point Trump has no idea who any of these candidates are and is just repeating generic talking points: “weak on crime”, “pro-choice”, etc. Someone is just telling him to support these people. The Bill Schubert’s endorsement still confuses me (and probably Trump as well)

[TheSaint250]

How rich for a criminal such as Trump, to say Doug Jones is weak on crime. I guess prosecuting Ku Klux Klan members who killed black children does not count because of who the victims are. This man is a literal piece of sh**t.

You think Trump cares who tf Doug Jones is? Someone just told him he was a Democrat and he brought out the usual "wants higher taxes", "weak on crime" stuff he always resorts to when it comes to Democrats.

[TheSaint250]

How rich for a criminal such as Trump, to say Doug Jones is weak on crime. I guess prosecuting Ku Klux Klan members who killed black children does not count because of who the victims are. This man is a literal piece of sh**t.

You think Trump cares who tf Doug Jones is? Someone just told him he was a Democrat and he brought out the usual "wants higher taxes", "weak on crime" stuff he always resorts to when it comes to Democrats.

I know he doesn't. I'm just reiterating what a shallow, ignorant doofus he is.

Ah I see. Very sorry if I sounded controversial.

You think he would just read a damn Wikipedia page or something. I mean, he's not doing anything else

[TheSaint250]

If the Democrats had nominated a ProLife Democrat, this race would not be close.

I respectfully disagree. There is such a huge aversion to voting democrat in Alabama, I dont think it mattered what Jones positions were.

That. If the Democrat was pro-life then Moore and the rest of the Republicans would accuse him of being pro-gay, pro-amnesty, a tax-raiser, etc., etc.

A ****** lover as well. You know Trump, Bannon, Moore and the deplorables are thinking it.

I...I don't think anyone is thinking that.

[TheSaint250]

We saw with Trump that major allegations / missteps hurt him for like a week and then Republicans privately forgave him and rallied around his candidacy again. With Moore, there's a risk that when the allegations go out of the news for several days, Republicans let them slip out of their minds as well and start to rationalize supporting him again.

Jones has to go hard in attacking Moore on this.

[TheSaint250]

Me walking back in on this thread again:

[TheSaint250]

If it was up to the people, Alabama would still be segregated.

It's actually harder than it should be to argue against that when the overall schooling trend seems to be re-segregation, although admittedly for reasons more complex than just brown/black people.

Actually, no, it really is as simple as brown/black people. But I'm sure Saint will come by telling me I'm an SJW for stating the obvious even though my PM social score is to the right of his.

Am I the guy you’re gonna continually reference in every post now?

[TheSaint250]

If it was up to the people, Alabama would still be segregated.

It's actually harder than it should be to argue against that when the overall schooling trend seems to be re-segregation, although admittedly for reasons more complex than just brown/black people.

Actually, no, it really is as simple as brown/black people. But I'm sure Saint will come by telling me I'm an SJW for stating the obvious even though my PM social score is to the right of his.

Am I the guy you’re gonna continually reference in every post now?

Only when it comes to the denial of tons of racists in your party. At least RINO Tom doesn't deny that, so credit where it's due.

K just wanted to confirm your strange obsession

[TheSaint250]

Apparently, Alabamans like pedophiles more than guys who put Klansmen in prison.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/12/04/polling-trends-for-trump-and-roy-moore-are-starting-to-look-remarkably-similar/23296778/

As has been said, this may be a Pyrrhic victory for the Republicans.  Wait until Moore starts opening his mouth on the Senate floor.  2018 _could_ be disastrous for the national Republican Party.

Maybe the party'll learn a lesson then.

[TheSaint250]

Reichbart says RNC is back in.

These people are idiots

wtf ronna

[TheSaint250]

Manchin will win.

Will you edit this prediction after Jones loses?

*sigh*

[TheSaint250]

Lol the RNC is only going back in w/ 50k per Twitter

That doesn't even seem worth the bad PR

Still they should keep him cut off