(Very) early 2020 Senate predictions.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions are kind of boring.

By the way, in Maine, I assumed Susan Collins would retire.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions are kind of boring.

By the way, in Maine, I assumed Susan Collins would retire.

My issue with Maine being lean Dem if Collins retires is who runs? Pingree doesn't appear strong at all, and has consistently underperformed.

Honestly, I'm not too sure, but any average Democrat at that point, even Pingree, would most likely be favored in a Collins-free election (unless someone well-known and extremely powerful and well-liked statewide runs as a Republican).  I still believe Maine will one day trend GOP, but a Senate election as early as 2020 will not be proof of that.

[TheSaint250]

My predictions are kind of boring.

By the way, in Maine, I assumed Susan Collins would retire.

My issue with Maine being lean Dem if Collins retires is who runs? Pingree doesn't appear strong at all, and has consistently underperformed.

Honestly, I'm not too sure, but any average Democrat at that point, even Pingree, would most likely be favored in a Collins-free election (unless someone well-known and extremely powerful and well-liked statewide runs as a Republican).  I still believe Maine will one day trend GOP, but a Senate election as early as 2020 will not be proof of that.

If exit polls are to be believed, Maine joins a rare slate of states which seem to favor a GOP age-gap advantage, along with Iowa and Kentucky (where the difference is insignificant but makes sense considering how their older generations are used to Democratic rule in the state). In fact, Maine seems to be the only state where Trump won the <45 vote while losing the >45 vote. That gives me pause when Democrats say OMG THE COLLINS SEAT IS OURS WHEN SHE RETIRES

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/maine/president

Huh. I never knew that. That's something I'll look out for.  Thanks

[TheSaint250]

TheSaint250, who are the Democratic candidates in Montana and Alaska in your scenario? Also, I agree with PNM that the Maine race could very well be a ND-SEN 2012 redux or so if Republicans play their cards right. But it would be tough for sure.

Not sure why anyone would rate CO a Tossup, given the tendency of blue states to oust Republican Senators. There was basically no split-ticket voting in Democratic states in 2016, plus someone like Hickenlooper might even do better than the Democratic presidential candidate there IMO.

I don't have any specific candidates in Montana and Alaska. I just think that without anyone extremely notable (and there doesn't seem to be something like that occurring; of course, we are 3 years away), Daines and Sullivan aren't in real danger of losing their seats.  

In regards to CO, it's too early to say for sure which way the state will swing in regards to the Senate, but you certainly have a point about the split-ticket voting.  Gardner, though, doesn't seem to be in such trouble politically or as well-known to an annoying level nationally to call the race lean D just yet.  If Hickenlooper ran, he would most likely beat Gardner barring a scandal or massive GOP wave.  Also, Gardner's approval ratings, while not amazing, are relatively average.