German Elections & Politics

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1009061305318297600

This certainly shows how there is a significant portion of the voting population (~7%) voting for other parties (in this case, AfD and FDP) in protest of Merkel but could rally around a more conservative option, whether it is a separate CSU or the Union being led by a different leader.

[TheSaint250]

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)

Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

[TheSaint250]

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)
G
Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

NazBol coalition, here we come!

You may laugh, but the end of the Weimar Republic came when there was a "negative majority" (ie commies+Hitler had a majority so no one could form a government without either of them).

If AfD+Linke gets a majority and a left wing SPD+Linke+Greens deal is also impossible (as seems likely) then government formation will be a sh**tshow at best and at worst won't happen and there will be a caretaker government forever.

Either that or CDU finally bites the bullet and does a deal with AfD. And honestly they should to that sooner rather than later, otherwise the chancellor (or regional president) might be from AfD instead of CDU.

Funny enough, if that INSA poll is to be believed, a CDU/CSU split might be the only way to prevent this

[TheSaint250]

Really good video from the BBC about Bavaria and the current crisis with Merkel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBBQn7nv13U

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1014874985276592131?s=21

[TheSaint250]

Is Scholz a Third Wayer?

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1014874985276592131?s=21

For what it's worth, election.de is still giving the AfD 3-4 districts: http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showforecast_btw21.pl?map=btw21e_prognose_180615

As is INSA: https://www.insa-consulere.de/insa-wahlkreiskarte/

Yeah, I saw that after I posted it, which now makes me suspicious as to how they calculated this.

[TheSaint250]

Is there an easy way to plug in percentages and find approximately what the outcome of the election will be?

In the unlikely case that the FDP falls bellow the threshold and CSU+FW doesn't get a majority, which would be the likeliest coalition? CSU+Greens? CSU+SPD? Or the unholy CSU+AfD?

According to this article, Söder called AfD “un-Bavarian,” and the Secretary General apparently implied it is a fascist party. I would put the chances of a CSU-AfD coalition as being pretty much impossible. Of course, things could change, but unlike with the FPÖ or Lega, the party is still relatively new, and the concept of it being in government is still unacceptable in Germany.

Without any knowledge of what the parties have said, I would guess the coalitions would be made in this order (in the scenario that they could all happen):

1. CSU-FDP
2. CSU-FW
3. CSU-SPD
4. CSU-Grüne
5. CSU-AfD

[TheSaint250]

Are Blaue even projected to get into the Saxon parliament?

[TheSaint250]

Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-1)
AfD-EFDD: 15%
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 9%

GREEN DOMINATION

[TheSaint250]

So what is the most likely coalition? CSU+FW+FDP? I can’t really see Grüne working with CSU.

[TheSaint250]

CSU: 34.5%
Grüne: 18.0%
SPD: 12.5%
AfD: 11.5%
FW: 10.0%
FDP: 5.5%
_____________________

Linke: 4.0%

[TheSaint250]

@The Saint:
Is this a leaked Exit Poll?

No sorry just my (likely wrong) prediction

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?

[TheSaint250]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?

It's apparently bad. But I expected that
[/quote]

Lol Is it, like, behind AfD bad or behind FW bad?

[TheSaint250]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

I think The Saint has posted an educated guess / average of pre-election Polling. The exit poll data collection will not be finished before 4:30 pm local (CET) time // 9:30 am Atlas Server time.
I can tell since I was last year witnessing the Polling as a voluntary poll worker.

The interviewer (InfratestDimap, the instituted hired by the ARD - public broadcaster ) explained he had to call the data collection Center at specific times (12 pm, 4:30 pm local (CET) time) and report turnout, registered voters and preliminary votes at 12 pm and full results at 4:30 pm (includes age, social status, sex and voting patterns of the last elections).

Yeah it was just a prediction sorry for all the confusion

[TheSaint250]

So when do the exit polls come out again?

[TheSaint250]

According to those seat projections, here are some of the discussed coalitions and how they stand as of now (obviously some of these, especially the first one, probably won't happen):

CSU + Grüne: 114/192
CSU + FW + FDP: 109/192
CSU + FW: 98/192
Grüne + FW + SPD + FDP: 95/192

So CSU + FW would work and is, from my understanding, the most likely outcome. However, the four-party coalition, if FW and FDP are still in the running there, is very close...

[TheSaint250]

Is there any chart showing how voters voted in 2013 compared to today?

[TheSaint250]

Is there any chart showing how voters voted in 2013 compared to today?

https://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY/index.shtml

Where is it? Sorry, I couldn't find it.

EDIT: I realize I was unclear. I meant a graphic showing how, for example, SPD voters in 2013 voted this year.

[TheSaint250]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

[TheSaint250]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

Could you see yourself breaking with the party in one election or elections?

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1051510288992935936

This is from almost an hour ago, though.

EDIT: Click on the link in the tweet to see the coalition possibilities.

[TheSaint250]

Any word on how BP is doing?

[TheSaint250]

Wow, everybody but CSU and FW are declining.

[TheSaint250]

@ The Saint
The state media does not publish anything. Over local government pages I have seen: my estimate is about 3 %, which is quite good for a Party whithout any media coverage.

It is interesting how they are still rising compared to 2013. I would have thought they would have fallen with more right-wing options on the table this time around.