German Elections & Politics

[TheSaint250]

What's the reason for the surge?

[TheSaint250]

Is there a good possibility of the SPD over performing and forcing the grand coalition to continue? I feel like that might happen.

[TheSaint250]

Is there a good possibility of the SPD over performing and forcing the grand coalition to continue? I feel like that might happen.

Based on what? The Americans must know something the rest of us don't!

we always know what will happen

If you had been analysing recent German state elections you'll have noted that popular largest-party incumbents have generally overperformed and likewise their opposition or smaller coalition party underperformed on polling day.

Ok thank you!

[TheSaint250]

What is YouGov’s track record with Germany’s Elections?

[TheSaint250]

I still find it ironic that the party Perry helped move to the right is too extreme (I agree that it has moved even further right, but it’s still funny.

[TheSaint250]

I'm hardly the expert on internal politics of German parties, and most of what I know about the AfD's internal divisions is from various Jacobin articles (normal DSA member), but I have to say that the AfD's shift to the right under Weidel is a strange development; I was under the impression that Petry was more of a "Volkisch" AfDer while Weidel, given her sexuality and background at Goldman Sachs, was just a fairly standard conservative who opposes the EU.

From what I’ve seen, she seems to be more conservative than expected. In addition, it seems like Gauland is having a greater influence on the party.

[TheSaint250]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

[TheSaint250]

Well, I think the CSU leaders have been knowing from the start that this cap makes no sense and is probably unconstitutional...

How is it unconstitutional? (Not familiar with the German Constitution)

Because article 16a GG says that persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum. No mention of a limit on how many refugees would be allowed to enter Germany. However, this article could be changed, which is however quite unlikely to happen.

Ah ok thanks

[TheSaint250]

If SPD does join the government it should demand that FDP and Greens also join in this "government of national salvation."  This way next election it would not just be SPD losing votes but FDP and Greens as well.  Since there are caps to AfD and LinkedIn support the total SPD loss can then be minimized.

The business website is growing every day

But seriously, that would be a good idea for he SPD, but I doubt the FDP and the Greens won’t see through the offer

[TheSaint250]

Shame I wanted the FDP in charge of finance

[TheSaint250]

Angela Merkel’s party backs grand coalition

This is probably what she wanted since the beginning

[TheSaint250]

State poll for Bavaria:

I wonder if the SPD could fall below the AfD.

[TheSaint250]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Also, are FW willing to join CSU?

[TheSaint250]

So are FW more of the social-liberal complement to the FDP’s more classical liberalism?

Social-liberal? In what sense?

I meant in the more UK, left-of-center sense, but you and EPG answered my questions. Thanks, guys

[TheSaint250]

Not that SPD had much option, given that the FDP proved that they are incapable of acting like adults.

This strategy could (and hopefully will, imo) work out for the FDP considering that they felt like they could not govern as they believed the voters wanted them to.  If the Grand Coalition happens, both the CDU/CSU and the SPD will most likely lose seats in the next election, and the FDP can say that they stood opposed to the government.

[TheSaint250]

If the top four parties include AfD and Like...

Do you think FDP will recover greatly from a new Grand Coalition?

[TheSaint250]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

[TheSaint250]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

Ah, my mistake.

[TheSaint250]

The way I see it is that there are two possibilities from here (with another, more extreme result possibly happening):

1. The SPD collapses as it has in the past as a result of another Grand Coalition.  However, this collapse will probably be much more extensive than before.
     1a. The SPD falls so much that AfD manages to come in second.

2. Andrea Nahles revitalizes the party and allows it to grow and take a lot of support from the Greens and Linke but still fails to form a government.

[TheSaint250]

The way I see it is that there are two possibilities from here (with another, more extreme result possibly happening):

1. The SPD collapses as it has in the past as a result of another Grand Coalition.  However, this collapse will probably be much more extensive than before.
     1a. The SPD falls so much that AfD manages to come in second.

2. Andrea Nahles revitalizes the party and allows it to grow and take a lot of support from the Greens and Linke but still fails to form a government.

Pretty much 1.

My current prediction is that Merkel resigns voluntary a year before the next election and AKK takes over. She'll run in 2021 as the incumbent, the SPD collapses to 10% and AKK forms either a coalition with the FDP alone or FDP and Greens, while AfD is the leader of the opposition at 20-25%. CDU/CSU will improve under the new chancellor to about 34-37%. FDP and Greens will end up in the 10-15% range while The Left remains stable at about 8-10%.

Do you really think AKK will win (not trying to sound aggressive; just asking the question)? I feel like Spahn would get chosen over her due to his being more on the right-wing while AKK is more to the left of the party mainstream with economics.

[TheSaint250]

SPD Bayern dropping like a rock with just a few months until the state election (new Infratest poll for the BR):

The fact that it's the Greens who are benefitting from this is both strange and amusing.  What's with their rise nationwide?

[TheSaint250]

The fact that it's the Greens who are benefitting from this is both strange and amusing.  What's with their rise nationwide?

The Bavaria numbers don't suggest this, exactly. CSU-Green swing voters are at least as important (in part because the SPD has always been marginal outside of 1) the big cities, 2) post WW2-refugees and their descendants and 3) the Franconian protestant belt.)

True on the nationwide scale though. It's partly a protest vote against SPD joining the government, and partly about the...relationship? between the SPD and the ethnic German working class.

Huh. So the CSU-Green vote could still fluctuate?

Also, on national scale, why can’t Linke seem to benefit? I feel like since they were the only of the three main left-wing parties to not seek a coalition they would do better.

[TheSaint250]

Huh. So the CSU-Green vote could still fluctuate?

That's possible, especially if CSU tries to adopt AfD positions in style as opposed to just adopting them in substance.

Also, on national scale, why can’t Linke seem to benefit? I feel like since they were the only of the three main left-wing parties to not seek a coalition they would do better.

Oh, they do benefit. In the West outside of the South, that is.

In the East, the are losing to AfD whatever they gain from other parties. In Bavaria and BaWü, they're still not very well organized.

Ah ok. Thank you!

[TheSaint250]

First poll in awhile that has CDU/CSU under 30%:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1008742013938921472

It seems the SPD is benefitting from this chaos.

[TheSaint250]

So will AfD ever nominate/get through a Vice President in the Bundestag?