NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1394400582559932417?s=20

Wiley being out of the top 5 seems like a huge failure.

Especially given the horrific press that Donovan has gotten/deserved over the price of a Brooklyn house gaffe

[LabourJersey]

The poll has Adams beating Yang 53-47% in the final round.

The only question that matters in these polls.





https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nyc-mayoral-poll-adams-new-leader-in-nyc-mayor-race-as-field-remains-open

Honestly shocking that Stringer is still doing well even after all the scandals.

His durability in the polls suggests to me that had these allegations not existed he would be leading against Yang. He almost certainly would have gotten the NYT endorsement too

[LabourJersey]

Loving the anti-Adams backlash.

He's surging (ugh). The question is will it be enough.

Honestly surprised people having been bringing up the Badillo stuff more

The Badillo comment is so bizarre.

The more I look into Adams, the more he comes off as erratic and strange. It really makes you wonder how he got as far in politics as he has, especially since the traditional Brooklyn Democratic establishments don't like him.

[LabourJersey]

Lori Lightfoot redux

https://twitter.com/Giambusso/status/1397251095802650625?s=20

Garcia: 21
Adams: 20
Yang: 16
Stringer: 10

I'm all for this. She's not Yang and she's not Adams. Seems to have a good head on her shoulders as well. If she can pull it off, that would be amazing.

Agreed, she's definitely the best candidate for now.

Also Stringer *still* getting 10% in spite of Garcia and Adams surging adds more credence to my belief that he would have won had the sexual harassment allegations had not existed (assuming these polls are accurate, of course)

[LabourJersey]

How bad of a candidate do you have to be for your volunteers, people who support you so much they go out of their way to help you for free go on strike???

And that's why supporting Dianne at this point is bad. Quite bad.

Freaking Paperboy Love Prince is honestly my 3rd choice right now just for how bad everyone else is

I don’t know if I can think of five major candidates I like at this point. I’d likely put Prince at #1 if I were a voter.

Given Stringer's allegations/terrible handling of allegations, Morales' implosion and Wiley's general incompetence, this has been a pretty horrible time for the NYC Progressive movement (at least those involved in local politics).

Though I think an underrated reason for this race's weirdness is that since the GOP is pretty much dead in NYC you have a lot of people in the Dem electorate who are more conservative than you'd expect. The Orthodox Jewish community may be influential in this race, even though that's not a Democratic group. 

[LabourJersey]

https://nypost.com/2021/05/27/eric-adams-says-he-wants-retirement-home-in-israel/

A Jewish weekly publication, Mishpacha, asked the Brooklyn borough president if he would be an advocate for Israel as have other mayors. [...] Asked what part of Israel he would choose, Adams said with a laugh, “In the Golan Heights.”

[...]

He called Yang a “shiny new toy” while likening himself to a “Microsoft investment.”

“The second you see that the shiny new toy is no longer so shiny, and Eric’s message is getting out, don’t allow someone else to take your investment away. I am your Microsoft,” he said.

"Retiring to Israel" is the most shameless act of political pandering I've seen since Newt Gingrich went to the Space Coast and promised to build a Moon Base of thousands of Americans

[LabourJersey]

I still find it strange that the democratic field both this year & in virtually every other mayoral primary through recent history in NYC has been so weak.

The balance between how much power a Mayor has vs. how much powerful people think the Mayor has is completely out of whack in New York. As Donerall points out the biggest points of concern for NYC are policies that come from Albany, and it's really rare for the Mayor and Governor to ever see eye to eye.

Being Mayor of New York is a very tough job and that pushes a lot of (the most talent/competent) politicians away from it, and towards running for the Senate, Governorship, etc.

[LabourJersey]

Stringer looks so visibly contemptuous of every single one of his opponents

[LabourJersey]

So Yang's finished?

We don't know for sure how RCV is going to go, so I can't count Yang out of winning yet. But he's much less likely to win than he was 8 weeks ago.

But there's still 2 more weeks of a very volatile campaign.

[LabourJersey]

Warren endorses Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1402057766609592322

Could maybe peel away some Garcia voters if publicized? I feel like there’s decent overlap between Warren 2020 supporters and Garcia 2021 supporters, at least among people I know. Anecdotal though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The Wiley and Garcia’s bases Venn diagram are about a circle.

Are they? my impression is that Garcia voters are more moderate than Wiley's.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1402748589839900677

Memerson, but Wiley clearly is now in the top candidate bracket.

God, why is Emerson just so noisy? First a Garcia surge, & now a Wiley surge, all the while showing a 14-point swing among undecideds in 8 days!? I don't wanna read too much into it, but I hope there's still time for Adams to be stopped.

Small sample size and huge numbers of people who haven't decided on their first choice.

Wouldn't surprise me if there's people who are deciding between Wiley and Garcia for #1 and #2 and switched those two over the course of polls.

[LabourJersey]

I think I can say it with confidence now, Andrew Yang will NOT be mayor of New York City, and his political future seems to practically be over at this point.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I don’t support Yang, in fact he’s one of my lower candidates, but how on earth are you MORE confident in that as this campaign has unfolded? All that’s become clear really is that Yang is inevitable.

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

^^^Complete uninformed ignorance right here

Yang is very likely to win

I've said it before but I am even more confident after watching his campaign unfold that Yang has a 0% chance of actually becoming mayor of NYC.

I get that you want to stir sh*t but this is just a laughable take

Yang still has a shot though? We don't know how RCV will pan out. It's down from being a ~50% chance three months ago to a ~10% chance now, but that's still a chance.

[LabourJersey]

The Manhattan Institute also polled favorable ratings. I'll bold the parts that I find the most interesting.

                  (fav/unfav) (net)

Eric Adams: 54%/28% (+26)
Kathryn Garcia: 53%/12% (+41)
Maya Wiley: 49%/20% (+29)
Scott Stringer: 47%/29% (+18)
Andrew Yang: 47%/40% (+7)
Shaun Donovan: 40%/17% (+23)
Ray McGuire: 30%/19% (+11)
Dianne Morale: 26%/20% (+6)

This honestly seems more valuable than the simulated ranked choice poll.

[LabourJersey]

Wiley would be the favorite if Stringer had dropped out...just sayin'.

So, what's Yang going to do after he (very likely) loses?

Primary Cuomo probably.

Cuomo vs. de Blasio vs. Yang

The primary we deserve.

[LabourJersey]

Poor Ray McGuire. All the weekslong discussions regarding Yang, Adams, Morales, Wiley, Garcia, Stringer & I don't think his name has ever been brought up at all.

The guy has little charisma and he thought you could buy a house in Brooklyn for $90,000.

[LabourJersey]

PredictIt update:

Adams - 61
Garcia - 18 (major dip)
Yang - 15
Wiley - 9 (!)
Sliwa - 3

Everyone else at 1

Sliwa at 3 is still too high.

Also Garcia seems undervalued in this