If he runs, he’s got my vote and support. I’ve had friends and family mention him. There’s something there, very reminiscent of Obama. Historically, Democrats win by running young, exciting, energetic optimists. I think Beto can win the nomination and I think he can beat Trump.
That O'Rourke has superficial similarities to Obama is not as great of a thing as people keep mentioning.
First, Obama only narrowly won the nomination in 2008, and never could have done so without the near-unanimous support of the black population post-Iowa. O'Rourke has no such bedrock group which comprises a huge proportion of the electorate. Polling shows O'Rourke is doing much worse with Hispanics nationally than this forum likes to think, and blacks certainly aren't going to line up behind him in the primary. A white version of Obama is only viable in a highly fractured primary environment. Obama also got very lucky in the general election. The financial collapse in September and the disastrous Palin VP selection doomed McCain, but otherwise the race was neck-and-neck before, even with the unpopular Bush running. The "Obama coalition" that many tout in 2008 came to him as much by factors outside his control as due to his own qualities. Unless O'Rourke is similarly lucky, he'll have a hard time constructing a coalition which resembles Obama's in either composition or scale.
Second, Obama's presidency caused many to sour on the Obama-style resume; that Obama won now makes O'Rourke winning less likely. We now have recent experience with a charismatic but inexperienced candidate becoming president, and many now see the flaws in electing someone like that. Being stylistically similar to Obama certainly won't win back the right or WWC voters who bolted following Obama's term. The left especially should be able to see how inexperience translates into the inability to convert campaign promises into real and sweeping changes, and O'Rourke would almost certainly face a much more hostile Congress than Obama did.
This is a thoughtful post, and I agree that having African American voters is an essential part of any candidate's coalition to win a Democratic nomination.
However I think that the primary is going to be fractured considerably, and the people with the most name recognition or "viral intensity" as one journalist put it will be at the top of the field.
I don't know if Beto will be the nominee--I think the primary-within-a-primary for AA voters will determine how the general primary goes--but I think if he can keep some of this momentum up he will be one of the last candidates standing.
