The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[LabourJersey]

I'm impressed but slightly surprised how much further ahead Warren is in terms of campaign infrastructure. She sounds ready to go, which you can't say for almost any other candidates.

[LabourJersey]

So is Swalwell gonna launch a vanity campaign just to get Californians to notice him?

[LabourJersey]

There are quite a few reasons to think that Biden isn't a favorite for the nomination. He'll have to explain his Iraq war vote, work on the Crime bill, his conduct during the Anita Hill hearing, and any other policies related to the Drug War/cultural wars that would now be toxic to the 2020 Democratic primary.

Having 36 years of roll call votes is a lot to defend. Not to mention how little of the Democratic establishment will be behind him (minority leaders are going to go with Booker/Harris/Patrick, Obama people seem to like Patrick, Harris & Beto, progressives won't touch him, etc.).

[LabourJersey]

Wow, O'Malley not running is quite something, given all his early primary state visits and the like.

I think a lot of the minor candidates are realizing they don't have the infrastructure/staff/funds to go anywhere.

[LabourJersey]

I wanna know what is going on in Seth Moulton's mind that tells him that running for President is a good idea, let alone what even makes him think he even stands a chance winning the nomination after his attempted coup against Pelosi fell flat?

Based on what I've read about the guy he's insanely arrogant and probably convinced he should and will become President, way more so than even the typical ambitious politician

[LabourJersey]

There is absolutely a 0% chance that Hillary Clinton runs again and people need to stop encouraging conservative media that's pushing that dumb narrative for clickbait

[LabourJersey]

I meant Ross Perot as some independent candidate who doesn't have much to virtually any chances in the presidential race, and that is why I wrote above "why it is so simple to me". I am assuming that due to the leftward shift in Democratic Party as of 2019 Schultz can end like John Anderson, even worse than Perot.

Schultz wouldn't even get as much as Anderson.

Honestly I don’t even see him getting Nader levels. He has no niche, ideas, or base.

Agreed. I'd be shocked it he got above 1.5%

[LabourJersey]

https://nypost.com/2019/02/11/de-blasio-heading-to-new-hampshire-amid-rumblings-of-2020-run/
De Blasio is going to New Hampshire on Friday.

I'd be amazed if he actually runs. He has no lane, all the NYC money will be for Booker, Gillibrand or Harris, and his record is mediocre.

[LabourJersey]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

[LabourJersey]

Democrats (and quite a few independants) DO love Joe Biden. Lots of Ds on this sub and Bernie bots on other social media platforms seem to dislike him though, making it seem as though he is unpopular.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/422084-biden-tops-2020-dems-for-favorability-rating-in-new-poll

They like Joe Biden as he is now, the former VP to a President they strongly like and admire.

If/when he runs for President as championing the pre-2016 status quo, and inevitably has multiple gaffes, they aren't gonna like him as much. He may not implode but his numbers are gonna come down to Earth pretty fast.

Additionally, he's out of step with the Democratic Party on multiple issues that the party is undeniably starting to moving left on (primarily economic issues). If Biden ends up winning the nomination and then wins the presidency, he'll rightfully face a lot of scrutiny from the left for not being progressive enough, if at all.

To be fair, we don't really know his specific political positions given that he hasn't run in 10 years.

What do you mean? He makes his political positions really clear in interviews and events all the time--he's an establishment Democrat and makes that clear frequently.