NJ-11: Sherrill (D) vs Webber (R) Deep in the Heart of Suburbia

[LabourJersey]

Webber seems all right but on the ground level Democrats (especially upper middle class Democratic women) are very energized.

Given Sherrill's advantage in name recognition (being a state legislator really isn't as helpful as people think, especially given how few Jerseyans give a damn about the Legislature) and the sheer amount of cash she has, I'd put this as Likely D honestly.

One note: I think Menendez is going to be saved by the energy generated by house candidates--Sherrill, JVD, Andy Kim, Josh Welle and even Malinowski are generated a tremendous amount of Dem enthusiasm outside of the traditional Democratic base areas in the state. Almost all of these enthused voters will support Menendez even if they hate him

[LabourJersey]

When was the last time Morris County had a Democratic legislator? I think Helen Meyner in the 70s covered western NJ, but not this part of the state. Tilt D at best.

Morris County isn't the same White Anglo Saxon county it was 40 or 50 years ago. Aside from the large number of new residents who are Jewish/Catholic etc, New Jersey's large South Asian and Latino population are moving to places like Morris, at least the ones that are wealthy.

The economic character may not be too different, but you now have a decent chunk of the population who don't see the GOP as a party that represents them in any real way.