The OC

[Torie]

My precinct in Laguna Niguel was 329 McCain, 324 Obama. In 2004 it went 60%-61% for Bush. Prop 8 went down 338-315. Congressman Campbell won 351-239. Obviously, McCain suffered a huge erosion in the secular GOP carriage trade vote, you know, like yours truly.

[Torie]

I noticed that turnout was way down in the OC. They cast over 1,000,000 votes in 2004 and only 830,000 in 2008. I have a cousin who lives there and works in LA and he said many of the Republicans left the polls after Ohio was called for Obama.

There are 239,516 ballots left to count in OC. All the provisional votes, and ballots received by the registrar of voters office in within less than say 6 days before the election have not yet had the signatures and address on the envelop verified, which needs to be done by hand, one by one, before they can be counted, and that takes time. It is about a two week process. Each business day, the registrar updates the totals. In California as a whole there are probably about 2,500,000 votes left to count.  Gore got the majority of his 500,000 vote margin in 2000 over Bush due to Calif absentee and provisional ballots counted after election day.

[Torie]

I noticed that turnout was way down in the OC. They cast over 1,000,000 votes in 2004 and only 830,000 in 2008. I have a cousin who lives there and works in LA and he said many of the Republicans left the polls after Ohio was called for Obama.

There are 239,516 ballots left to count in OC. All the provisional votes, and ballots received by the registrar of voters office in within less than say 6 days before the election have not yet had the signatures and address on the envelop verified, which needs to be done by hand, one by one, before they can be counted, and that takes time. It is about a two week process. Each business day, the registrar updates the totals. In California as a whole there are probably about 2,500,000 votes left to count.  Gore got the majority of his 500,000 vote margin in 2000 over Bush due to Calif absentee and provisional ballots counted after election day.

So does this help Mccain or Obama or should the margin stay about the same?

Well they are late ballots, but otherwise the same. There may have been some swing to Obama in Calif which might make the late ballots more Dem than earlier absentees, but not of course same day votes. Absentees are not more GOP anymore. Those days are gone.  Obama carried CA-48 by a narrow margin. McCain carried the south cities by about 4%, including mine, but was slaughtered in Irvine, and of course Laguna Beach. One in five voters voted for Campbell and Obama, including of course moi.

[Torie]

Absentees, especially later ones, tend to help Republicans in most states.

Not in California. At least not in 2000 when I watched them fatten Gore's PV margin.

[Torie]

Here is a nice little interactive map of OC, sbane.

[Torie]

Here is a nice little interactive map of OC, sbane.

Wow thanks a lot. The precinct map is even better, the sea of blue that is the center of OC is very soothing to the eye. Now that we have you guys fragmented, annihilation is inevitable.   I can't wait to find out what the UCI precinct voted like or my precinct where I live. It must be some insane margins.

Hey, I voted for Obama! I'm the swing baby. I only want to kick you in the nuts a couple of times a week - not everyday. All things in moderation is my motto.

Moving right along, the map is wrong, because I know my precinct went to McCain by 4 votes (along the western edge of Laguna Niguel at about the midpoint right next to Aliso Creek park or whatever it is called, and its blue, and that ain't true!

[Torie]

Here is a nice little interactive map of OC, sbane.

Wow thanks a lot. The precinct map is even better, the sea of blue that is the center of OC is very soothing to the eye. Now that we have you guys fragmented, annihilation is inevitable.   I can't wait to find out what the UCI precinct voted like or my precinct where I live. It must be some insane margins.

Hey, I voted for Obama! I'm the swing baby. I only want to kick you in the nuts a couple of times a week - not everyday. All things in moderation is my motto.

Moving right along, the map is wrong, because I know my precinct went to McCain by 4 votes (along the western edge of Laguna Niguel at about the midpoint right next to Aliso Creek park or whatever it is called, and its blue, and that ain't true!

Well maybe they are factoring in some uncounted absentees/early votes? Or maybe they aren't. But anyways how do you know the results by CD? Can you let me know how he did in the OC districts and the 11th? Or do you only have our CD numbers?

Go to page 47.  Mr precinct 58317 now has a McCain lead of 12 votes by the way. It is getting bigger and bigger!    Punch here to find your precinct.

[Torie]

Latest OC results:

JOHN MCCAIN / SARAH PALIN (REP)       578,171       50%
BARACK OBAMA / JOE BIDEN (DEM)        548,246       48%

Goodness, that's almost 50-50. 

Wonder what the chance that it'll flip is.

~0%

It's also ~0% that McCain will fall under 50%, if I'm reading the returns right.

Do you know what is still left?

7,474 votes.