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Author Topic: Pennsylvania  (Read 4503 times)
Torie
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Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: September 07, 2008, 04:32:35 PM »
« edited: September 07, 2008, 04:36:25 PM by Torie »

I just don't see where the McCain margin is coming from in Pennsylvania. It just doesn't pencil. Of course, with the bounce ... if it lasts ... keep hope alive!  I also don't detect a big swing to McCain vis a vis Bush among down market whites in the state. Whatever.

Maybe some guru who is good with the numbers can enlighten me.

Regarding Philly, are not the Dems already awesome in getting blacks to turn out and vote?  How many are left to round up, vis a vis 2004?  In fact, in 2004, in most black precincts in Philly, the turnout was awesome (101% in one precinct but that probably was an entry error).
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2008, 05:39:03 PM »

What about the fact that the Democratic edge in registrations in Pennsylvania over Republicans is up by more than 500,000 from 2006 to 2008? Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 600,000 the day that Santorum lost by almost 20 points, and now it's up by 1.1 million.

We know that registration rough numbers often are deceiving, but does anyone want to argue that this number is meaningless because more than a half-million of those people are Hillary voters who are now going to vote for McCain--on top of all the Hillary-McCain voters who were registered Dems prior to 2006. (I'm sure there's some bad assumptions there, but you take the point. This number is a bad sign for Republicans, the only debate is how much of a bad sign it is.)

McCain either needs to cut pretty deeply with down market whites, or carriage trade seculars (RINO's now Dems since the Democrat primary has become meaningful now in Montco and envirions, or RINO's, or cafeteria RINO's), or a combo of the two, or it is curtains in PA. I keep saying that, but I can't get anyone yet, to say, you know, that is very perspicacious of you!  Sad
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