FL-Rasmussen: Obama up 2

[Torie]

let's hear it for the echo chamber!  obviously, we don't want Obama campaigning in Florida--he might have to run to the left of Milton Friedman on economic issues.

0.17 * 95 = 16.15 [African American vote]
0.18 * 50 = 09.00 [Hispanic/Latin Am. & Other vote]
0.65 * 38 = 24.70 [Caucasian vote; BHO getting 36% caucasians w/ 11% undecided in PPP poll]
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                   49.85% Obama (i.e., enough to carry the state provided 3rd parties)

But that's just number crunching, not waxing poetic about carrying Wyoming before any Southern state b/c, yes, they're apparently the cause of this country's problems.

Why is the African American vote at 17%, when it was 12% in 2004 per the exit polls in Florida?

[Torie]

Florida is 15.8% AA as of 2006. I suspect the VAP is more like 14%.

[Torie]

Now, one important improvement on the 12% number that may occur this year because is that former felons are now allowed to vote.  And the margins will probably increase slightly.

Kudos to Charlie Crist for liberalizing the state's voting rules. It would be wonderfully ironic if a McCain/Crist ticket lost because of an abnormally high black turnout, swelled by the newly empowered criminal voting bloc.

Crist should get his "gay" ass horse whipped for doing that.  I'll supply the whip.