Early Indiana turnout is heaviest in Obama counties

[Torie]

I would tend to think those three counties (Marion, Monroe and Lake (assuming Lake is Obamaia, which is questionable) make up at least 20% of the Dem electorate in a primary in any event, so it is not clear to me that there is any disproportionate voting. Indeed, in 2004, 31% of the Kerry vote came from those three counties, so it may represent a disproportionate undervote.

On the other hand, Vigo, St. Joseph and Vandenburg made up just 10% of the Kerry vote, in 2004, and it is 16% with the absentees - an overvote.

I think the numbers suggest precisely the opposite of the headline - Clintonia is getting the heavier turnout.

[Torie]

If Marion, Monroe and Lake are this overrepresented, and St. Joseph, Vanderburg and Vigo that overrepresented (they were barely 10% of Kerry's vote), Obama is potentially in a lot of trouble.

What you said.

Edit: Even better with your edit.