Official Florida Primary Result Page (Bipartisan) (user search)
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Author Topic: Official Florida Primary Result Page (Bipartisan)  (Read 20498 times)
Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: January 29, 2008, 06:04:10 PM »

The leaked exit poll numbers do not include absentees, and Mitt's folks thought they had to win today's voters by 2%-3% to pull it out, because McCain had the lead with absentees. So if the numbers are right, Mitt is near to being on the ropes.
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Torie
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Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2008, 06:14:56 PM »
« Edited: January 29, 2008, 06:16:37 PM by Torie »

I think what was meant was that of those who voted absentee 69% were conservative, and 46% were elderly, which is only a bit older and more conservative than  the GOP electorate as a whole.
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Torie
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*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2008, 07:13:03 PM »


Terrible news for Mitt. In the SurveyUSA poll that had the race tied, Mitt beat McCain on the economy 40%-29%. 

I might as well make my election prediction now. McCain will win by a 6% margin.
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Torie
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Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2008, 07:17:30 PM »

It is just a wild guess, based on all of the tea leaves. The Hispanic numbers moved too.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2008, 07:22:58 PM »

Mostly Hillsborough and Lake Counties. Not sure who that's good news for.

They should be pretty close to the mean average of the state I would think. Hillsborough is Tampa.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2008, 07:23:58 PM »

Mostly Hillsborough and Lake Counties. Not sure who that's good news for.
Aren't those areas considered Pro-Romney?

North = Romney bias
Central = no bias
South = McCan bias
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2008, 07:26:14 PM »

What is this, like 2 precincts?  It's too early to tell.

Well I have been down this road before. Dollars to donuts those two precincts  are the one in each county into which all the absentee ballots are dumped, so what we know are the absentee totals of those who voted prior to today in Hillsborough and Lake Counties.
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2008, 07:34:47 PM »

The Pasco and Pinellas County absentees have been counted. These two counties are supposed to be bellweathers. The results:

Pasco Mccain 31% Romney 29%
Pinellas McCain 31% Romney 26%
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Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,101
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2008, 07:37:35 PM »

County results on the Republican side, according to CNN...

Huckabee is leading by 6% in Bradford County with 10% reporting.
Romney is leading by 6% in Columbia County with 4% reporting.
Romney is leading by 9% in Duval County with <1% reporting.
McCain is leading by 11% in Hillsborough County with <1% reporting.
McCain is leading by 1% in Manatee County with 5% reporting.
Romney is leading by 4% in Nassau County with 9% reporting.
McCain is leading by 2% in Pasco County with 20% reporting.
McCain is leading by 5% in Pinellas County with <1% reporting.
McCain is leading by 7% in St. Lucie County with 5% reporting.
Romney is leading by 9% in Suwannee County with 6% reporting.

That's all the counties with votes thus far.

I'm not Al, so I'll leave this to more knowledgeable sorts to see whether this means anything. Tongue

I think they are all absentee votes, and the precinct percentages are meaningless since the counties probably do it different ways. But if the today voters go the same as the absentees per the above, McCain will win.
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