When will the 538 Odds show the GOP has a 51% chance or better of taking control of the Senate?

[Torie]

It is at 47% at the moment, up 2 points from this morning. Drip, drip, drip.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

My guess is in October, after the next PA poll comes out.

On the other hand, if it can actually be proved that Walker paid for an abortion  ... crazy world out there.

[Torie]

[Torie]

If the Pubs hit 51 on or before Halloween I will shut down the poll. So if you want to change your vote  ...

[Torie]

From its apogee or not, the Pub tide recedes back a point.

[Torie]

50-50 now. I have six hours left for it to get to 51, or my guess was wrong.

[Torie]

No idea as to more polls, or the behind the curtain metrics in the deluxe edition, and supposedly 538 discounts partisan polls, and I don't know what partisan polls came down in the GA-PA-NV-AZ quadrangle.

The only poll I know of is the Siena-NYT non partisan poll that had favorable numbers for Dems, albeit it 538 handicaps that pollster with a Dem bias, maybe about a point or so, while otherwise giving it a stellar rating, which means that if you move it a point to the Pubs, it is spot on, because the bias is so seamlessly systematic.

In other words, that NYT-Siena poll dump would still move the needle a tad to the Dems, as opposed to the reverse. So something else is behind the curtain.

That said, having visited RCP, this AJC poll came across the transom that may explain it.

[Torie]

Those GOP polls flooding the zone really did a number on PA, NV, and GA.

I don't really understand how the model went up for the GOP today. Today was a good day of polling for Democrats, I expected the GOP% to tick down to 46%.

Doesn't the model have some random variance in it; i.e. they actually run simulations 100 times and report the results?

More like 1000 times plus, so that is not the source of any variations. The inputs rule. So is it GIGO or is it not, that is the question.

[Torie]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

The most absurd thing is the hand wringing over all of this. And obsessed with predictions, and anger with those with contrary crystal balls. Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate. Who would want to live with that toxic brew, or expose your issue (legal term for rug rats) to that?

[Torie]

Never thought this would happen but 538 switched it to 51-49 GOP!

(Torie, in Maxwell Smart voice): Missed it by that much!

Yeah, but close only counts in horse shoes.


I am closing the poll.