Election models megathread

[Torie]

One thing this 538 Deluxe model seems to be good at dealing with is polls that just go very against fundamentals. For instance, in PA-Sen, the 4 most recent polls are Fetterman + 11, 14, 9, and 11. I don't think anyone in the election community expects him to win by that much, but these types of polls haven't pulled the model to declare the race like 95% Fetterman. We see a similar theme in OH where all these polls of Ryan leading haven't made OH-Sen race even a tossup and gives Vance a 3/4 shot.

One thing I don't understand is how the model has reached the conclusion that MI-Gov is Safe D despite basically no high-quality polls. That seems very overconfident, though I agree that fundementals prolly heavily favor Ds.

The other thing is that there seems to be a disconnect between the House forecast and the Senate/Governors forecast. The House Forecast expects an R + 4.5 margin nationally which isn't unreasonable, however, that doesn't align with Dems being favored in all these Senate and Governors races in narrow Biden states.

Candidate quality matters more in Governor and Senate races, and the Pubs nominated some real clunkers.

[Torie]

Pennsylvania?  Really?

PA is a rolling cannon on the deck. Fetterman has felt the need to agree to debates. As to percentage outcomes, it may have the flattest bell curve of them all. In a cycle that has considerable more than the normal share of strange races, this is the strangest of them all. That's my take.

[Torie]

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/5-reasons-for-democrats-to-still-be-concerned-about-the-midterms/

The primary merit of this piece is that it is a revealing description of what is under the 538 hood, and what isn't.

[Torie]

Trump and Lindsey Graham are Dem moles. There can be no other explanation.

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

In NH, Biden was +10.4 in the RCP average but won by 7.3, so a 3.1% underestimation.  Same with 2016; Hillary was up 3.3 but won by like 0.3, so a 3% understimation.

Thanks. That metric is  nonsensical to me (the polls will have the exact same bias as the previous election, as fixed as the speed of light), but whatever. RCP's lack of transparency as to what it is doing makes it an HP (horrible place).

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

It's another way for RCP to fudge the numbers.

Well perhaps this guy believes them anyway.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/01/politics/democratic-seats-jeopardy-gallup-polling/index.html

[Torie]

For the Senate, suddenly 538 moved a full 3 points in the last hour or two, to 58-42 odds that the Pubs get 51 or more seats. It appears to be primarily driven by Oz's odds of winning by a substantially higher percentage, and Walker in GA, even as Laxalt fades a bit - the spirit of Ralston effect.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo